Quixotic1

pretty sharp west to east cutoff on that graphic!

2 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

When I did that analysis last winter, IIRC, all the McFarland events that I analyzed occured during La Ninas. None occurred during El Nino.

Yep.  Lets hope for 95-96, 83-84 or 00-01.  Some of the early 60 ones were monsters.

i am going to be pretty peeved if my flight tomorrow evening gets delayed....

2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

We are still following 1983 eerily closely. The absolute coldest air of that outbreak are unlikely, but an extended period of true Arctic air entrenching itself east of the Rockies seems likely later this month.

If you go back and look at other ninas, December outbreaks seem to be prevalent.  Off the top of my head: 08, 05 (a dreadful winter), 00, 98(another awful winter), 95, 89, 88, 83.......there are exceptions such as 10 and 11.  Overall 

2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Man this month is setting up to be brutally cold. I would not be surprised to see us reach the single digits for the first time in 20 years and maybe challenge 83 and 89 if a good -EPO sets up. 

I'm traveling so can't see.  What are the Euro and GFS saying?

My gauge still has 10.4 from 2015 as its record low.  Of course it didn't start up until December of 2013.    

Feels like it's been forever since we've talked about cold, DPs, flurries........

Looks like a bomb might go off in the upper midwest next week.  978?  

59 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

Do any of you like 1978-79 as an analog? It was a borderline La Nina (-0.4C) in Fall of 1978, but it weakened to Neutral in winter. It followed two El Nino winters (76-77, 77-78), and occurred after a reversal in the long standing sign of the PDO (1976/2013 - although the more recent flip seems to be a spike more than a 30-year flip). I ask because the La Nina seems to be weakening, we're following two El Ninos...and the cold experienced in the US in January 1979 (-8F to -20F over most of the US) has been occurring over Asia for the past two months.

January 1979 was stupid cold in the middle of the country - including TX, OK, etc.

Worst ice storm I ever saw was the 1978 New Year's Eve storm.  DFW didn't get much but where I lived we lost half our trees, had icicles hanging from the second story all the way to the ground and were without power for 6 days.  Couldn't even go outside because of all the downed power lines.

I can see 78-79 as well as 83-84.  The extremity of the cold makes me hesitate.  But as analogs, I think both are serviceable.  AMO had a tendency to be negative back then if I remember correctly.

10 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Great analysis, for this year my bet would be on a mean around 45 as we have a warm background state with lots of polar blocking and a very cold source region.

Thanks.  I'd take 45 after last year.  I'd like to see a bit colder.  42 would be nice and not too unreasonable.  2009 had some cold and snow. Will have to go and check just how cold.  

1 minute ago, DFWWeather said:

December 1908 was warm at DFW +3.8 to be exact with coldest temp of the month 25°F. December 1913 was also just -1.4 for the month with coldest temp of 26°F at DFW. Those years don't stand out. Did you mean 1914 and 1909? Those were -7.4 and -8.0 respectively.

Yes.  You're right.  I pulled the data for another reason mostly to do with the winter overall and we end up with the old "do we use 83 or 84 to describe the winter" bugaboo.  It's easier to write one year than two and 108 years is a lot.  Thanks for the catch.  

So, talking about cold Decembers, we got four that stand out during the time period of 1900 to 2008:  1909, 1914 and 1989 (2.35, 2.26 and 2.47 Standard Deviations respectively) and the grand daddy of them all:  1983 which is a whopping 3.77 Standard Deviations below normal.  

3 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

'83 is an analog that keeps coming up when I bounce stuff around. However, people on the Twitter act like only a true weenie would bring it up. One thing is for sure, the 12z Euro EPS keeps our source region below normal the entire run. That was our biggest issue last winter, there was no cold up there when the pattern did get favorable. 

I've been thinking about 83.  I'd be genuinely interested to see how extreme it was in terms of averages.  I've got all that data on a csv file so I can probably put it on a distribution easy enough.

On 11/25/2016 at 9:35 PM, raindancewx said:

Panel A is the best match to my mean highs from June-Nov carried forward to Dec-Feb

Panel B is the best match from June-Sept mean highs, the monsoon, ENSO, years since ABQ had >9.6" snow, and the monsoon+ENSO

Panel C is the best match for my winter ocean expectations - Cold Neutral to Weak La Nina, Modoki, Neutral PDO, Warm AMO, after two El Ninos, Dry Monsoon

Panel D is the best match for borderline La Ninas only: -0.4C to -0.6C in DJF

So far, A has been pretty good for Nov, with B good for Oct. My historical testing of these methods show "C" should become most accurate later in the winter, with "B" fading after December to irrelevance. D should be relatively decent. But I lean towards a split of "A" & "C" for the winter, plus 1-2F in the SE. Essentially, A early, then C late.

Anyway, best bet for the West:

WA/OR: slightly cooler than normal (-0F to -2F)

ID/WY/MT: pretty cold (-2F to -4F)

CO/WY: cool (-1F to -3F)

CA: normal (-1F to +1F)

AZ/NM/NV: normal (-2F to +2F) 

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on panel D.  The strength of last year's Nino with a pretty strong jet leads me to believe cold will be more zonal than not.  

I love 83-84.  Love love love.  Second most memorable winter for DFW.  But to be honest, the background state is so much different.  I don't know how you build a dome of cold like December 83 or even February of 1899.  The globe is generally warm, particularly in NA.  The cold over in eurasia won't help us if it has to go across a sea with less than normal ice and Canada without snow.  

On 11/13/2016 at 10:46 AM, Roy said:

I am usually of the mind to wait to call winter cancel, but this is getting alarming. Still plenty of time to turn around though.

I'll tell you, 89 was a late arrival much like 15.  I want a front to back winter but 13-14 is pretty rare.  

Heard rumbles of thunder off and on tonight with little on the radar indicating any type of convection.

2 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

Ugly... just Ugly...

On the bright side, 63-64 was a terrific winter.  Measurable snow for all four months.

00-01 was a good winter.  Most of the damage was done in December.  Multiple events.  First week featured FZRA second week IP and SN and TRSN the last two weeks.  On the 27th I was trying to put some toys together for the kids and heard lots of thunder.  Picked up a quick 6" in about an hour and a half.  Went out and had snowball fight with the neighbors' kids.  Big fist sized flakes.  

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

There is a long post associated with this, but Weather Trends 360 says 1960-61, 1966-67, 1983-84, 2010-2011, 2014-2015 is fairly similar as a blend to their official forecast for Nov-Apr. Does favor a fairly cold winter for NM & CO, with much of the rest of the West warm/near average.

Those years are pretty cold overall. Similar idea to what I had early, East Coast cold Nov, it backs west Dec, reaches SW for January. I think the east is warmer and the cold is further west in Jan-Feb though. March I think will be a bit more crazy looking, and then April I'm pretty different for that, but it's early. Overall, I like the idea they have, just think the cold is centered further west. 

I'm starting to get on board with those who're going with a much warmer than normal winter.  I hate to be a gloomy gus, but right now DFW is on pace to shatter the record for warmest October.  We are at 75.3 for the month.  The next on the list is 1938 at 73.1.  Looking at other anomalously warm Octobers and you see nothing but dog winters.  last year's El Niño really did a job on us last year.  I fear the hangover might carry over into this one as well.  

On 10/18/2016 at 0:54 PM, cstrunk said:

Heat islands. You can also pick out a handful of other cities; Shreveport, Omaha, New York, etc.

And then there's the meat locker known as Amarillo. 

Yeah.  Waco aggravates me too.  They always seem to have more snow, rain, cold and heat even though they are 90 miles south of DFW.  

2013-2014.  Book it.  

4 hours ago, bubba hotep said:

100 today at DFW... Just filthy out there. And oh, look at that, another weekend cool shot is fading as we move closer. I see plenty of analogs that suggest we could be below avg temp wise this winter but it's hard to buy that right now.

October is the bellwether.  Pun intended.  If this is going on as we approach Halloween, then I will panic.  

20 hours ago, Chinook said:

I just realized that Dallas-Fort Worth hit 107 on August 12, with dew point of 66 and heat index of 113. That is pretty bad. Or good, if you are in the business of selling air conditioners for a profit. Looks like things have been below normal for a little while.

107 sounds about right for an annual max.  

I think 14-15 is the analog that was meant instead of 15-16.  

And yes I will mow the yard in 105 degree temps.

Stupid prefrontal trough.  Out there mowing the yard and the wind is blowing out of the west.  What a bummer.