Quixotic1

2 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

Comparison time... Nam Friday morning.. 41 degrees... Gfs??? 64... 

If it's going to rain, 64 please.  

1 hour ago, raindancewx said:

The Atlantic (AMO) was still warm in December, but cooled a bit from November relative to the long-term averages. December was pretty cooler than 1937 and 1952 and a couple years in the late 1800s.

I don't agree with JB on much, but man I can't wait for the AMO to change to a primarily negative state.

7 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

I think you are right. The timing of the lead northern stream s/w, PVA and H5 cutoff were nearly perfect on the big ice storm runs. Those runs also had the SE ridge with a different orientation. The H5 cutoff has trended slower and the SE ridge a bit stronger with a different orientation. The models have been struggling with the SE ridge in the longer range going all the way back to hurricane season.

That's the hope in all of this.  First, the SE, which has been roasting under that ridge all winter, threaded the needle and got a snowstorm this past weekend.  What does this mean for us?  Well I believe, that as the winter goes on the ridge will weaken or bulge northward.  If we get cold, it could mean any arctic air would stick around a-la the December '13 ice storm as it's held up by a not-so-big ridge.  Even more mouthwatering is the thought of us being on the western side of a stalled arctic front as shortwaves move over.  It could be an epic event (The models were showing almost exactly that scenario as we drooled over the weekend).  The cold has been here this year.  It hasn't come often but when it has, it's been every bit as cold as anything we saw in 13-14 or 10-11.  If we get a really cold air mass that stalls, we could cash in.  More likely sleet and ice than snow though.  

I've been looking for references for February and March of 89 which also had this scenario and was another Nina year, if I remember correctly.  

it was fairly common back in the 80s and 90s.  One memorable one was in 96-97 where it was in the teens in Wichita Falls and balmy 50s in DFW.  

I think it's the SE ridge.  If it's strong enough and elongated enough, it will hold off arctic intrusions.  

That said, this one, according to the AFD this is related to a large upper level low that's going to traverse southern Canada and pull most of the arctic air east with it.  

We need the rain but I love winter weather so, either way.  

We really haven't had to deal with the warm nose in a while.  Looking at currently progged temps would put the metroplex right on the surface 32 line during the event.  I would venture to say that it will get colder we get closer.  

ETA:. Oh well.  Never mind until the next run.

One thing in our favor is the cold has been overperforming.  

Denton is at 8 degrees.  DFW is at 17.    I don't think DFW will ever see single digits again.  

53 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

My point forecast low is 13F and we are now down to 15F with clear skies and little wind. 

My freaking station died two days ago.  Argggh....

1 hour ago, jhamps10 said:

Yeah I agree, models show a slim chance next weekend in fact, maybe more likely for Oklahoma and Arkansas but we will see

I saw the para had a rain to snow event.  Maybe we can thread the needle like the southeast did.

19 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

HRRR is up to something funny! Hard to tell from that image but it gets DFW to 7F and MBY to 3F...

Think it's initializing with too much snow cover?

I think we are going to get another crack or three at it this winter.  

1 hour ago, jhamps10 said:

December 27th into the 28th I believe

Oh yes.  I was in downtown dallas and nothing stuck.  Heard we had a dusting at the house.

14 minutes ago, jhamps10 said:

heh, exactly what I was thinking, this matches up with the snow burst from last winter already for Ft Worth. That one was weird, you could literally see the snowcover from Parker county from my office downtown, yet here in the city barely a dusting

When was that event?  December 26th of 2015?  

3 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Your strategy of get the cold in place first works out again! 

Hey I try!

My wife complains when I'm wrong and I always say "do you see 4 feet of snow out there?  That means I don't control it."  Haha.  

A dusting is the most I've seen since March 2015.  Already better than last year.

8 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

You're still sitting better than us in East TX! Wintry precip to our SE and NW... Nada here.

Game isn't over yet! 

I'm getting dry slotted!  Haha

Saw some flakes at Lebanon and DNT in Frisco about 20 minutes ago. 

33 minutes ago, bubba hotep said:

Last year was obviously a massive bust but the last few years prior we always seemed to have at least one system that wasn't supposed to do anything turn out to be an 1" or more. I remember one that ended up being thunder snow and nearly 2", forecast the night before was for cold and cloudy. 

The bigger positive busts have been due to troughs/short waves slowing down.  Don't forget the cold.  Higher ratios could help push us over 1".  Haha

On 1/3/2017 at 2:16 PM, aggiegeog said:

Yep, with the whole column subfreezing it wont take much for a dusting to an inch in N TX. Hoping that the Euro begins to trend to the other models, but I think that areas E of I-35 generally near I-20 will at least get some snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Your thinking is right but looks like it's going to be even further east.  

So, Bubba and I might get dusted.  I'll take it.  

So, on a not so happy note, DFW has had one month of BN temps since May of 2015.  That was May 2016.  What a grueling stretch.  

14 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

Yep, with the whole column subfreezing it wont take much for a dusting to an inch in N TX. Hoping that the Euro begins to trend to the other models, but I think that areas E of I-35 generally near I-20 will at least get some snow between Friday afternoon and Saturday morning.

Well, if it ain't us, I hope it's somewhere near by or further south.  I'm really jonesing for flakes though. 

15 minutes ago, Roy said:

NWS doesn't even mention it in the official forecast for Friday. I'm hoping, but it's clear whatever does happen will be very minor.

the update earlier mentioned possible changes in the afternoon package.  They seem to believe run to run consistency and how many models are predicting snow out weighs the typical superiority of the euro.