Hvward

Gotta give you props.

 

Even tho we didn't get the accumulations expected with the meager rates and above freezing temps. This was still a great call when models were showing close to nothing.  Great pattern recognition!

 

Thanks man! Would love to see that deformation feature showing up on the KMRX Radar give everyone a surprise dusting-1” tonight.

Look at LiquidBud post in main thread. Unless it starts ripping soon your forecast is going to bust big time. Pride comes before the fall young man

It’s not a competition man. You need to take a break.

I'm not petty enough to take a pic and prove it but its just now starting to barely stick to trees. The grass is still mostly wet off of Haywood in West Asheville 

But you are petty enough to call an event a bust before it starts.

Not sticking here downtown at all and rates are still light

Starting to stick to the grass here at my office in Candler.

Sometimes some of you need to step away from the keyboard. Several models showed this dry air from 7-11am and then when heavier precip moves in as the afternoon progresses that dry air disappears and the column goes frozen. Don’t call it a bust just yet.

 

0z EPS average at KAVL now up to 3”. Good to see it finally come around.

Most 12z EPS members see some form of accumulating snowfall at KAVL. That’s an increase from this morning. Euro is slowly trying to come around. Will be interesting to see the 18z and 0z.

Something tells me he's waiting until tomorrow afternoon's model runs before he calls for anything different. 

 

We have been here before fellas/ladies, I.E. December 2017.

Jason Boyer says forget about the nam, it ain't happening...because, you know...it's Jason Boyer.  He doesn't like snow...he's told me as much. I'd like to know his reasoning behind that, but gave none. 

Hmmmm... interesting.

idk guys the Euro just isn't having it

 

Well KAVL went from .1” of accumulating snow to .7” so that’s a 700% increase in frozen precip. I really just think the Euro is struggling. I have seen it do this before.

12z UKMET jumping on board with the strip of precip over WNC.

True, but historically the Euro has handled the southern waves better than any model. If the nam trends away at 12z of if the Euro doesn't trend better I think it's a big sign considering we are only 48 to 60 hours out

In these type of fast flows I tend to favor gridded models(NAM & GFS) over spectral(Euro) simply because they are better suited to handle the multiple back to back pieces of energy. A spectral model like the Euro divides the atmosphere up into 28 waves across the globe. Having two waves back to back like we are seeing is certainly giving the Euro trouble. It struggled with the last event where there was trailing overrunning precip. It has shown to me a tendency to struggle in these fast flows. The nam with those smaller grid points is better suited to resolve those little details, especially when several vorts are heading our way. We will see at 12z, I am pretty excited to watch model progression today to be honest.

Wow did we just lose Ryan Newman? Man that was an awful wreck..

 

18z NAM has precip again oriented in a great fashion for accumulating snow in WNC.

I ain't impressed.  Better hope for a last minute tweak to make this more than just more token flakes (at least for W NC).  But it could be one of those overperformers... just had one for N GA!

For the mountains these overrunning events have worked out before. Below 1500’ might struggle with temps though imo.

ICON with a more expansive northern shield of precip on the 12z run. Temps are borderline but I can roll with that look.

I am going to heed your own advice from yesterday: Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.
We've been here and time and time again and more times than not will the precipitation field trend further north than is currently being shown.

Yeah I hate to sound clichè but this is going to be one where we will have to see how that precip is blossoming on Wednesday evening and into Thursday. If it’s sets up over N AL and moves to N GA we should be in business. Not a lot to compare this one to with that large expansive high. Usually we don’t have that to work with or one to that extent.

12z nam still has the strip of precip over WNC. Small details though are going to be huge with this system.

What are your thoughts on the thermal profiles? 

Like nrgeff said, thermals look good for mountain locations, below 1500’ could struggle. We just need the moisture.

6z NAM has the precip oriented exactly how WNC would like it at hour 84. Yeah long range NAM ya da ya da, it nailed the last shortwave. GFS looks similar with that strip of precip over NGA into WNC. This feature has been shown on almost all models at some point in time over the past 3-4 days and you have to use those little hints. Let’s see today if that strip continues to expand and last for more frames. Also 0z EPS with a nice uptick in snow totals for WNC.

From the pics I've seen 2017 was pretty great here in the N GA mountains also. I was unfortunately in Athens that day with a 34 degree rain so I missed it. Is the tilt and alignment of the trough next week at all similar to that setup or was it much less positively tilted? 

 A bit less of a positive tilt to the trough in 2017, also a much less expansive high. Models showed much less moisture leading up to the event but the GFS and Euro caught on within 36 hours. NAM had the storm pretty well but wavered with it some. Not exactly sure what to think with the less positive tilt to this look, but still thinking the precip shield expands north with more qpf. Reading back through the Mountain thread of 2017 and at one point in time we had the JMA, NAVGEM, & ICON? I think vs. the GFS, Euro, UKMET. Was a wild event to forecast.

 

 

Remember that time the NAVGEM nailed a winter storm from 4 days out that others weren’t really showing? Yep that was the overrunning event of Dec 10th, 2017.

Really liking the setup for Thursday, we have done ok in these type of overrunning events here in WNC. Think back to early Dec of 2017.

Models tend to under-do that northern periphery of moisture and its extent.

 

 

0z EPS with a pretty decent signal for the 21st. Members average 3” of snowfall.