Hvward

Yeah and don't sleep on the flow snow coming in.

I measured around 6" in the protected spots around my house, but whi knows what acrylic gell with that wind.

I'm thinking the nwf may end up being the main event for me.

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I have around 5” of snow at my house in the official snow hole. Ferries still flying with some sleet mixing in. I usually do good with NWF here at my location so I think I could add another 4” before tomorrow morning. Alexander, NC

Lol gotta have thick skin to forecast here in the mountains of WNC. Thanks guys. Sorry I’ve been a ghost, haven’t had much to say other than I thought the short range models were wrong.

Man we are getting hammered here in the snow hole. Already an inch on the ground.

I wouldn't sweat the short range models. Like I've said. The Euro and GFS have been stellar with there solutions.  The NAM can suck it for all I care and the HRRR has never been much of a great model for output here in the mountains. I could be wrong and If I am ill eat my words but the big dogs are locked in, not the ankle biters...

Candler Gets 9" on the Nam3km and Downtown Asheville gets a dusting..  Fun forecast here.

2 minutes ago, Hvward said:

12z NAM Looking to not slam the low into WNC, changes coming here.  Looks to handle the transfer a tad bit cleaner.

Opps jk, it pops it in ETN?  Weird

Analyzing sounding even in Cherokee County where it shows green precip, the warm nose is meager.  Its not this massive pronounced deal like we see sometimes down in those areas.  Even in the NC/GA/TN border the warmest the surface gets is 40 degrees, and that is right at the surface.  The parcel falls in nearly frozen air the whole time.  A sleet/snow mix would occur then.

12z NAM Looking to not slam the low into WNC, changes coming here.  Looks to handle the transfer a tad bit cleaner.

That Baroclinic leaf out in front looks stout, could see some flurries start flying here in the next couple of hours.  Someone might get a decent snow shower even this afternoon.

Just now, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

What do you think is causing the short range models to struggle with this?

Honestly I think its the shear amount of energy flying around in the atmosphere.  Don't get me wrong that low is going to try and drive into WNC, but the air up here is going to be colddd.  I just think we have an anomaly on our hands here and the short range models are struggling to decide where that low redevelops off the coast.

Lol at the short range models.  Don't think I have ever seen a low take that track with such a strong high in place.  This should correct.

Living in that HRRR snow hole got me like .  I should be able to give us a good read on how accurate those snow holes actually are.

5 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

Solid cirrus deck above me, this camera faces east to monitor my parking lot in case of theives. Haha.

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I was looking at this and I was like, this dude owns a plumbing supply spot and sure enough!  Love it man I hear business is good up in that area!  Just like it is everywhere else in WNC.

1 minute ago, BretWx said:

NAM totals maps are wonky. Snow depth v. totals.... Paying more attention to placement for now. Which looks excellent.

Yeah it has mixing issues and also don't account for the backside that is about to come through.  I would expect that to correct over the next 24 hours.

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

During that time frame its showing zr over most of mountains 

And the bowling ball coming through N GA

Low track is what we need to be focusing on with NAM.

12z NAM is about to hammer WNC.  Keeping that surface low close to the Gulf.

6z Euro dropping the hammer at 8pm Sunday night with the deformation feature moving in.  Already 12" of snow for most and it still going to hammer for 6 more hours.

GFS can't even get the baby event Thursday night right..

34 minutes ago, franklin NCwx said:

You need one here in fontana lake estates so we can see the park

Woah That Is a Beautiful View!  Could we put a camera there?

44 minutes ago, mclean02 said:

I would like to help with Greensboro cam if you want to ping me on the side ?

For sure, when I start expanding out of WNC I will certainly send you a message!  Thanks for the offer!

If everything goes correctly over the next two days I should add a downtown Hendersonville and a downtown Bryson City live camera before the storm hits. Prayers to my It guy.