Hvward

GFS & CMC want to lock in freezing 850mb temps on Friday for some in WNC. 0z CMC actually has Asheville at -2 degrees c as the main precip moves in. Euro doesn’t really have as much CAD so it will be interesting today to see if that CAD signature strengthens.. or fades away.

Yep NChailstorm has been following it for 2 days on the FV3. Not to mention several big time forecasters sniffing out a pattern that should be ripe late next week for a box office smash hit for the wx nerd world we all live in.  The pattern, teleconnections are screaming something big should evolve and now the new and soon to be gfs, is lending credence. Well have to see how this evolves, but chances are high a eastern seaboard headline wx story should take place last week of the month .

Yep, models throwing lots of hints around. -NAO would really help and it looks like it’s going to happen. Honestly for a late October setup.. this doesn’t look half bad at all.

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Both GFS and Euro hint at NWF potential on Sunday morning. Especially around Boone.




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Awning collapses live on ABC News Feed.

Adair in big trouble, got caught up in the storm surge. Someone was calling him earlier and was rather rude instructing him to get the Mexico Beach for footage and that what got him into trouble. He had a spot to ride it out in port st joe but whoever was on the phone wanted Mexico Beach.


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The NAM and GFS models seem to be tracking Michael on the very western edge of the NHC forecast cone with the heaviest axes of precipitation over the western portions of NC.  New NAM is rolling now.  (Yes, I know the NAM is not the preferred hurricane model.)  It's just an interesting observation.

Getting concerned about this as well. That moisture will just funnel to WNC. This is looking more and more like Opal on steroids.

167mph vector around the eye. Could be a Catagory 5.

Still intensifying in my opinion currently. Lightning going off like a thunderstorm in the eye currently.. usually a sign of strengthening.



Scary situation for Panama City.

Yep Tim GFS showing some fantasy snow next week for higher elevations. Honestly that wouldn’t take much on the run to producing some overrunning flakes even in the valleys of it were to verify. Euro is nowhere near as cold. Right now though I am really interested in this Hurricane though.. upper level trough will allow Michael to stay strong for much longer and this thing could slam into the mountains. Fun times here to come.

Here is my article on weatherlore, thanks again for the contributions!

http://www.ashevillewx.com/weatherupdate/2018/10/3/10-weatherlore-people-in-the-south-use-to-predict-winter

Thank you fellas!

Anyone have photos of wooly worms or persimmon seeds from this year? How about a count on how many morning of fog you had at your house in August, lol. I am writing a few articles on my website Ashevillewx.com detailing the various winter folklore that mountain people use. I would love to get a few quotes from you all regarding what your parents/grandparents used to say, and what you hear folks speaking of now. Thanks in advance for any help!

18 hours ago, AsheCounty48 said:

So yesterday, traveled down to Asheville with a buddy to see a show. On the way down we were talking about the weather (he is a weather nerd as well), and I was saying how All I had to do was keep my phone data turned on when we were there and we wouldn't even have to look at the weather since Ward would of course go live on FB. About an hour later got the notification that he was live talking about the storm moving in, and that was the only reason we were able to get inside before it hit, thanks Ward for what you do!  also, i'm sick of all the clouds, I've lost my entire tan from vacation already.

Hahaha thats awesome man, and no problem!  Glad I could help you and your friend out!

12z ICON amps up the low right off the NC/VA shore similar to the 6z run.  Looks like the wave digs a tad father south this run.  If we can get that surface low to track along the FL Panhandle and a slightly quicker phase, many on this board would be in business.  I don't think that it is out of the question, but what it all boils down to right now is that we are tracking a phasing system that will likely bomb out.  I wouldn't expect any model to have this system nailed down at this point in time.  Lets see what the 12z GFS and CMC throw out.

6z GEFS much improved compared to the 0z GEFS.

0z

6z

12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo.


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12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo.


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6z NAVGEM

Total Precip through hr 84.  Looks to be all frozen in a least the mountains and foothills.  One can wish right?  NAVGEM hasn't let down though.

6z NAVGEM still sharpening the base of the trough and absolutely hammer the western part of NC. Looks good for Upstate SC and parts of NE GA as well. RDU to CLT could be the battleground (of course).

Been watching the NAVGEM for the past few days and it has been pretty consistent (minus on run yesterday) with the LP being captured hanging right off the coast. Showed a deformation feature Monday afternoon.

Monday 18z


Wednesday 00z

Had my first success at growing Watermelons this year after a couple of years struggling to get them to produce. I figured out that my city water is very low in calcium, and subsequently watermelons need abundant calcium available in the soil to avoid blossom rot. So this year I periodically top dressed the soil with gypsum and managed to grow one melon that weighed 18.5lbs! Needless to say I was stoked. It was very tasty and now I am watching a few more mature!

About that time guys. Heard someone finding morels around 2300' in the area. Time to grab my basket and head into the woods. Finding a few ramps would be nice as well. Anyone else do any wild foraging?


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Me at the beach this year.

there you go man.