Hvward

Hmmm.. 18z GFS picking up on some overrunning precip? Every models except for the Euro has shown these blips of precip popping into WNC on Tuesday. It is noteworthy, and shouldn’t be ignored.

I am becoming increasingly interested in the possibility for snow showers on Tuesday around WNC. Should get some agreement among models this weekend.

Heavy precip moving into the area over the next few hours, could see some snowflakes mixing in around Asheville. Some surprises in store with this one I believe.

GEFS snowfall map on the increase.

6z


12z



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12z Euro is all rain outside the Mountains. 

Check out the soundings around KAVL on the 12z Euro. Small details but they will make a huge difference in WNC. A meso high develops in NNC and that allows a frozen column to be in place around 8pm Tuesday evening. To compare to the 0z Euro at 8pm Tuesday which had 4c at 850mb. The 12z is shown as 0c on weatherbell at KAVL at 8pm. That’s nearly a 7 degree F difference. With this much volatility, it’s hard to speak in any certainties, but yes the high pressure could come in higher than models are showing, and we could be seeing models realize that. Lots of options still on the table with accumulating snowfall being one of them for WNC Tuesday into Wednesday.

This one is going to be a difficult one to forecast. Need the NAM 3km to get in range. Look like some sleet or ZR could be possible tomorrow night above 3500’ around Boone tomorrow night as well.

12z Euro moves towards the 12z GFS. Wedge is stronger and surface temps are 5 degrees lower this run at @KAVL when heavy precip moves in. Euro also brings in precip later compared to the 0z run and that allows the wedge to build. This one is far from over. Will be interesting to see the EPS. Focus on the evolution of the overall pattern right now, not snowfall maps.

12z GFS says heavy precip switches to snow Tuesday night around WNC. It’s a long shot, but certainly still within the realm of possibilities.

Mping reports showing ice occurring in Austin, TX.  A lot of times with these overrunning events I like to look downstream to see how moist the atmosphere is compared to what models showed.  Looking back at yesterdays 3km NAM runs, there was no real switch to snow for parts of TX, but on the most recent 6z run, there is a swath of 1"-2" across central TX.  With dew points low enough, I think we could see wetbulbing at 850mb and some snowflakes/ip mixing in tonight and into tomorrow as this overrunning precipitation makes it into WNC.  Similar setup on Sunday am but wedge does appear to recede.  Could be some surprises in store this weekend..

 

Moisture didn’t quite make it into WNC, but saw some reports of sleet down around GSP.. tomorrow’s precip looks to be later and warmer as well on most recent Nam runs. Is it too much to ask for for two solid weeks off Gulf Lows and favorable blocking? Maybe the last half of Feb will bring the goods. I am at the point of finding my favorite EPS member with long range fantasy snow and just watching it unfold to remember what a snowstorm looks like on models.

Mping reports showing ice occurring in Austin, TX.  A lot of times with these overrunning events I like to look downstream to see how moist the atmosphere is compared to what models showed.  Looking back at yesterdays 3km NAM runs, there was no real switch to snow for parts of TX, but on the most recent 6z run, there is a swath of 1"-2" across central TX.  With dew points low enough, I think we could see wetbulbing at 850mb and some snowflakes/ip mixing in tonight and into tomorrow as this overrunning precipitation makes it into WNC.  Similar setup on Sunday am but wedge does appear to recede.  Could be some surprises in store this weekend..

Wouldn't be surprised to see a few overrunning snow flurries/showers around WNC on Sunday morning.  Models typically struggle to resolve that moisture until a few days before but it certain looks like the a zone of truncation could develop due to pressure differences.  Also cold have a pretty stout wedge in place with most models showing a 1038mb high to the NE.  12z ICON has a plausible solution imo and would get the job done with a 1044mb hp in place across the Mid Atlantic.  Might be grasping at straws here since its been so boring, but these overrunning events are notoriously poorly modeled.. and could be something to watch. 

Got some cameras up of the action happening!

I have a live stream up of my 4 weather cameras located around WNC. Check out the snow falling!

32 and zr imby as well.

I know models are wavering a bit, but still not a bad look at KAVL on the 6z GEFS. This one is far from over.

12z EPS snowfall avg was a sizable increase at KAVL. Nearly doubled from the 0z. This is going to be a very dynamic storm.. and lingering backside moisture will make things fun again Monday! I am looking forward to tracking this one!


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If any of you are interested, HT, Met1985, and I are going to have a live chat about the upcoming flooding threat for WNC on Facebook live at 7:30. Here the link https://www.facebook.com/Ashevillewx/

Anyone know how I can post videos?

Rain/snow mix falling at my place in southeast Asheville. Winds are really picking up.

Normally not one to ask for IMBY info, but any thoughts on when the transition occurs tomorrow for a place like Mt Leconte (approx. 6600 ft)? I'm going to head up there to try and get in on the action. My guess was that the change over would happen around 11 AM, so hoping to start hiking around 10 or so, but don't have much experience figuring out timing with what models show at elevation. Trying to time things so that I get back to my car afterwards just as the snow level gets to around 4000 feet (hopefully by 3 PM or so).

3km NAM has the switchover occurring around 7-8am in the highest elevations of Swain Co. Switchover should occur around noon-2pm for locations around 4000’.

3km Nam is a hammer job for the higher elevations along the NC/TN border.  Wouldn't be surprised to see somewhere (Clingmans Dome) get over a foot.  Good luck to those of you in the higher elevations.  Thinking that we see some flakes make it into Asheville as well with winds gusting to 40mph tomorrow night.

Got 7”-8” total here in southeast Asheville, after switching to sleet early Saturday morning. Looking forward to the next one!

Flurries falling here at my place off Highway 74 near Reynolds High.


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Will do. We have over performed with every system this year precipitation wise so I don’t see why this system should be any different. We’re right at 130” of rain for the year. 

Wow, 75” a year is classified as rainforest. You are nearly double that(or 55” above rainforest classification).. astonishing.

Got a couple of live cameras up on my site for those interested in watching the event unfold.

Downtown Asheville Live Camera: https://www.ashevillewx.com/gtadowntownashevillecam

Candler/Mt Pisgah Live Camera: https://www.ashevillewx.com/mt-pisgah-live-camera