Hvward

5 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

You know it! It's about time we saw this shitty pattern break just in time for peak climo.

I mean honestly for me personally its perfect.  3 weeks of tracking snow, then I am off in the beginning of February to get married in Hawaii!

Just came here to post and say that Thursday night looks good for the border counties, but Met is all over it!  Also  at 0z & 6z suites.

Looks good this weekend. Best setup we have seen all year for sure, but that’s not saying much.

12z Euro showing a 2"-4" event for SW SWNC.  1"-3" event around Buncombe county.  Smaller warm nose with this run at the onset of precipitation.

Very interested in Thursdays event.  Lets see if it keeps digging.  Areas in SW WNC do good with these that don't have such a robust warm nose.

Sleet pretty much already covering my deck here in Alexander. A little snow mixing as well.

This is a situation where its all about the handling at 500mb.  Every time the ULL cuts off over TN/GA WNC gets hammered.  Thats because the system is able to rotate in some Gulf moisture.  Ill be watching on the GFS to see if and when the 500 mb ULL cuts off.

WNC about to get NAMed.

Nightmare forecast scenario here...  Lets see what the 12z Euro shows.

16 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The 12z NAM is paltry as well...

Yeah misses the phase in the Gulf.  Timing is going to be key with this one.  If we have a big swath of snowfall develop over AR Sunday AM it is game on.

Major differences regarding amplification between 00z & 6z. 6z euro very stout.


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GFS still trying to get a little Gulf Low action going Sunday.  Many of the Euro ensembles are trending that way as well.

Sunday night & into Monday beginning to look very interesting for WNC.  Euro with a thump on the 12z, GFS also has a significant wrap around NWF on it.  This appears to have some validity. 

ULL to end next weekend looks to be interesting.  Another one to track!

Hey congrats on the building success and engagement my man! Good to see you post.

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Quite the pattern coming up for WNC into early November.  Time to start watching the EPS members.  Hints of a decent snowfall chance for those above 3500' Wednesday night and into Thursday then a gulf low develops to end the weekend.  GFS and Euro both show the Gulf low, but limited cold air.  Last frame of the 0z Euro shows mixing occurring to the valley floor in Haywood late next Sunday.  Obviously a long range run which doesn't mean much, but it does look like a Gulf low will be possible.  Winter weather tracking begins!

Interest setup as well Wednesday morning, GFS has trend two degrees cooler over the past couple of runs around AVL. Looks like a slight warm nose could allow a quick burst of snow to reach the surface. NAM had snowfall for many but 3km NAM didn’t show the same profile. Will be interested to see how the 0z NAM suited come in here soon.

Good spot to be for this weekend’s storm. Who knows, I’ve seen crazier trends. That northern stream could very well carry a bit more moisture. Models are showing specs of precip. Something to certainly watch.

Looks like some freezing rain/snow showers will be possible along the Escarpment tomorrow morning.  Something to watch.

If this verifies I'll have 5-7 hours of blizzard in Stuart to get my 5-6".  This wont verify.  I'll grab a security cam pic of my wet ground at midnight tonight.

Looks like you guys are in for some fun Saturday and into Sunday! I won’t be sitting this one out but I have a weekend planned at Primland Resort in SW VA. Looks like we could get several inches there as well. Here’s to hoping everyone cashed in!

2.5” at my house in Alexander, still snowing pretty hard. That makes 10” total for me this season.

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I have a light to moderate snow falling now here in Alexander.

Winds will increase rates later this afternoon/evening. Patiences..

Snowing pretty good here in Canton currently.