Hvward

30 minutes ago, ncjoaquin said:

I haven't posted anything this winter. It has seemed pretty definite that everything will turn to trash the closer the model runs come to the event.  NWS has downtown staying all rain, not even a sleet pellet and only "maybe" an inch where I am in Candler. So, hoping for a miracle. Seems like we are due.

Anyway, I would like to concur with the compliments from above. I know so many people that say, I listen to this guy, lol. I say, Hunter?? Yeah, that's him. You do a great job, right or wrong and you are right more often than not. But, I don't envy anybody forecasting around here !!! 

So, keep doing doing what you are doing. People appreciate it.

... And this is not to minimize any other local forecaster.

Thank you for the kind words ncjoaquin! 

HRRR has heavy snow breaking in Haywood tonight around 7pm.

Thanks to you both for the kind words!

18z GFS with a bit better look than what we have seen all day.  Lots of variables at play here with this one and a lot to consider.  It's going to be nowcast soon.  Soundings for the whole event are razor thin.

Wow GFS really falling off.. crazy forecast.

For some reason I just don't think these models are grasping the full extent of the ULL.  I guess we will see over the next 36 hours.  Deformation feature is going to be key for accumulation and that is notoriously difficult to model.

You would think by now GSP would start talking the snow up more for all WNC .  The least I've seen the models calling for  is 7.3 for Asheville.  The local weather on channel 13 is talking token flakes.  I do  wish we had more cold air close by.  

Lol this is pretty typical, they will play major catch up soon.

I would still roll with this look and take our chances.  Buzz word is going to start being Dynamic Cooling. 

RDPS keeps getting warmer..  that's somewhat concerning.

Looking at soundings and margins are razor thin in the upper atmosphere. 1 degree difference at the surface and that would have all been snow. We will see, this track is far from nailed down.

I'm not worried about downsloping. The north/west trend is likely going to give us a nasty cold rain. This could turn into an east kentucky storm like the Euro is showing. 

6z brings back better snowfall totals to WNC but is still on the low end of guidance. Looking at sounds and temps are extremely borderline. I think we continue to see wobbles with the surface low and that’s going to play key with the warm nose presenting itself. Asheville area looks good for at least a couple of inches. Foothills area still very questionable. Not sure that EKY becomes the winner here though.

The very end of the 18z NAM. Yes I know it at range but we are just analyzing at this point.

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It looks a little moisture starved to me and it still shows 4” of accumulation around Asheville by 1am Sunday morning. This thing has big time boom potential here in WNC.

2 minutes ago, Maggie Ace said:

Great video update this afternoon Hunter. Appreciate the time you put in for our WNC Weather Community!

No problem man!  Glad to be apart of it.  I was just a lurker here in 2010.  I give a lot of credit to this board.

Wow this is the best 50 member look I have seen in a while on the 12z EPS.

12z EPS increasing totals again.  This is really trending our way.

Don't want to be in the bullseye just yet.  I think we have this one right where we want it to get a decent storm here in WNC.  Now we focus on when negative tilt occurs and how much moisture the system can pull from the Gulf.

0z GFS is the best run yet for WNC.  Really like the trends here.

Euro ensemble certainly trending towards a better snowfall event at 12z.

Woah at the 6z GFS. Hopefully the ULL catching the surface low becomes a trend today.

18z NAM. Back on that good stuff.

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Man we need this one bad people are getting stark crazy over snow lol.

NAM is all over the place.  Maybe just some token flakes Thursday night/Friday AM.  We will see but NAM doesn't have the stream of moisture as far north compared to previous runs.

We have the NAM, NAM 3km, RDPS, Canadian, & GFS all showing snow showers to a good portion of WNC late Thursday night and into Friday.  This looks like it could actually happen.  Might sneak up on us!  Sounds look pretty good though from most models, Nam and NAM 3km even showing some accumulation. 

Impressive snowfall totals showing up on the 12z NAM 3km. I’ve been saying this for a while but someone is going to get hammered. 3km even picking up on that Buncombe Co streamer. Looking forward to the first decent snow of the season for many!

This one is a long ways from over. The Gfs transferring the Low from the Ohio valley to Coastal NC won’t happen. The more southern solutions seems plausible at this point in time. Enjoy the ride on this one we are going to see big time swings, but someone up here is going to get hammered imo Friday and into Saturday.

Razor thin margin for rain/snow on Tuesday around WNC.  We've seen this before.  These type setups have been known to produce 1"-2" surprise events for portions of WNC.  Short range models should provide a much more clear picture over the next 36 hours.