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oconeexman

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    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

    Our local weather guy just showed future radar, it’s looking highly likely that my area will see some sleet and flurries at onset!:sled:

    He also had a 20% chance of snow on Tuesday, saying he’s watching a disturbance!:maprain:

    All we have to hang our hats on this winter

     

    Screenshot_20200117-182247_Facebook.jpg

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    January Observations

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

    Welp, we all thought it couldn't get worse than 2011-2012 and last year, but so far it has been. Here is a GSP, CAE, and AVL summary so far:

    GSP: Including fall and winter, GSP has seen just 17 mornings where the temp has fallen to freezing or below. The overall low has been just 22 and that was back on Nov 13. There has not been a trace of frozen precip reported. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp average has been +9 degrees with just 5 nights of 32 or below and a low of just 28. GSP has seen just one day this month that averaged below normal (-1 on Jan 5). The past 7 days the temp departure has been plus 10, 17, 18, 16, 18, 20, and 14, with 5 days in a row not falling below 50 degrees. 

    CAE: Including fall and winter, CAE has seen just 13 mornings fall to 32 or below. The overall low was just 28 back on Nov 13. There has not been a trace of snow reported. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp has averaged + 12.6 with just 2 nights falling to 32 or below and a low of just 29. CAE has not had a single day this month below average. The past 7 days have seen temps average plus 14, 22, 23, 24, 25, 23, and 19 (with a plus 20 and 12 earlier in the month for good measure) with 4 nights in a row not falling below 60.  6 days this month have reached 70+, with 4 reaching 75+. 

    AVL: Including fall and winter AVL has seen just 34 nights with the temp reaching 32 or lower. The overall low has been 18 set back on Nov 13. Only a trace of snow has been recorded. Through Jan 16, the monthly temp has averaged +11.3, with just 5 nights falling to 32 or below and a low of just 26.  AVL has not had a single day below average this month, and the past 7 days have seen temps average plus 16, 23, 21, 17, 20, 22, and 12, with 6 days in a row not falling below 45. 

    Man that's some good info...BRUTAL and painful but good info!

    Hasnt gotten above 45 here today..some cherry trees are blooming and actually had so.e pollen on the boat yesterday when I got off the lake. 2 things I've never seen in January

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

    The canadian is very cold late in it's run which matches up well with the GEFS and EPS. There's always a chance it could be too cold but I'd rather chance that than anything else. 

    Yup...so much potential coming up. Starting about a week earlier than I anticipated which is a bonus. Think we could be in for great stretch late Jan through most of Feb

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

    Hey SE folks, first post for me in your forum this year. I've been wanting to stop by and let you know that I like what I'm seeing for your area but honestly I haven't liked anything I've seen since Dec 1st... until now...

    I know you guys have covered the reshuffle in the Pac etc. There are a lot of clues saying the -EPO is going to build and stay. Weeklies and CFS agree that it will prob continue through all of Feb but that's way out there in time. At the very least a -EPO period seems to be locking in next week. We'll see how long it lasts. 

    Not sure how a -EPO/+NAO works down in the SE but a blend of Jan 1994, JF2014, and Feb 2015 is a decent mix of recent similar periods to what I'm seeing now. CAD Ice/mixed events are the most likely but any well timed wave on a boundary can break the right way. 

    GFS and EPS ops suddenly starting considering their options about flipping the AO and/or NAO negative by d10. Ens don't agree with that yet but it was either a total coincidence or a clue that maybe hope is not lost on getting some blocking going at some point before speedos and SPF30

    As always, I'm rootin for you guys. Maybe we get to share in a rare SE/MA coastal that glides slowly out to sea off the coast of NJ. lol

    Thanks for stopping by Bob..enjoy your posts mucho!

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    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2020

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    8 minutes ago, SnowNiner said:

    Now you go in the corner, and you think about what you just said Mr. :D

    Long range I'm waiting for the ensembles to tell the tale.  Two GFS runs in a row is noteworthy I guess, but I'd like the ensemble means to show an average out likelyhood of a better pattern down the road. 

    Lol yea it excites me a little but not buying in quite yet. There are lots of signals pointing this in the right direction. Nice ridge building in Pacific northwest. Some blocking in the NE and the southern stream remains a fire hose..ingredients are there IF its right.

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