forkyfork

when has the day 6 bullseye worked out this winter

11 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They are probably underestimating the CAD near the surface. But the WAA above 950 mb may turn out to be stronger. So it could mean some areas progged as snow now may get more ice instead.

we routinely see the sfc trend colder while the mid levels remain warm or trend warmer. the front end thump is a big wildcard that won't be resolved until we're in the meso model range

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is likely going to end up being too far north.  I don’t necessarily think the UKMET is right either but the models aren’t seeing any impacts of CAD yet or the earlier start of the precipitation.  You’ll start seeing as we get inside 96 that precipitation is moving in earlier and the CAD is stronger 

the cold air isn't going to give up its ground easily

43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def less amped than 00z...still gonna taint into CNE...but that's a good shift. The sfc will prob stay SE on this run (or would in reality), so it will be lots of ice too.

i don't buy the CAD just eroding like that

models underestimate dense low level cold so the ice threat is significant imo

29 minutes ago, purduewx80 said:

the back end snow on the 18z run was simply a 500mb jet max passing by, putting us in a brief sweet spot for lift. the soundings aren't that impressive, but this does seem to be the kind of pattern where multiple vorts come into play. it's as likely as any other operational run out there for the time being.

some gfes members split the system into two parts with the second being all snow. that's our best hope

the anafront idea is the best hope the coast has IMO

raw 2m gfs temps are not worth looking at

the south coast could get a surprise if this trend continues 

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

there's a low chance the coastal gets enough room to amplify and give us a surprise tomorrow night

if enough of the system is left intact after the PV lobe swings through then it has plenty of room to amplify and come north

there's a low chance the coastal gets enough room to amplify and give us a surprise tomorrow night

dc isn't getting 18" this weekend

it's day 9

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

When Forky’s excited about the pattern pay attention folks.

look at that trend. come on

also

hmm

split flow with a -epo is nice 

we're finally seeing the good pattern on the weeklies creep into the medium range. that seems desirable to me

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The EPO ridge goes insane between D4 and D7.

i bet it trends colder

that's a massive pool of cold air in canada on the euro toward day 7

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That streak couldn't be timed any worse. Blah.

it looks just like december

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

March1888 and 1914 would be high on the list of past storms we would liked to have experienced. 

both powerful phase events with arctic air and beginning as rain

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Good find. I got the order of P-types reversed. About half fell as snow.

1914-03-01	38	22	30.0	-8.1	35	0	2.95	13.5	13
1914-03-02	26	17	21.5	-16.8	43	0	0.16	1.0	13

that must have been such an intense band on the west side of the storm. i'd do anything to see something like that happen again 

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It looks like it was an earlier version of March 93. Around 13” of snow in NYC with a changeover to 1.50” of heavy rain. Hurricane force winds with record low pressure in NYC. The storm track may have been directly over NYC. One heck of a front end thump before heavy rains came. No wonder there were so many reports of roof colllapses from the weight on the snow and rain.

https://www.app.com/story/news/2014/03/06/the-great-snowpocalypse-of-march-1914-asbury-park-cut-off-from-world/6143545/

___________
_____________________________________________________________________________
Pressure Records (inches of Mercury)
Record
 
Highest 
31.08
February 13, 1981

Lowest 
 28.26
March 1, 1914

looks like it was rain to snow according to the kocin book