forkyfork

8/24

high dews = lower lcl's = easier for seabreezes to trigger convection

8/13

i hope september torches

34 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

While we're discussing UHI, can we talk about how garbage the GFS is at simulating it, especially during the day? It consistently overheats the big cities by 5-8 or even 10 degrees on warm days. Below is the 2:00 PM forecast from the 12z GFS:

GFS forecast for NYC: 92. Actual: 86

GFS forecast for BOS: 95. Actual: 84

IIRC this was an issue during the winter as well, especially during those marginal March storms, although the bias was less pronounced compared to the summer.

it looks like they overcompensated for its previous cool bias and this manifests itself in surface layers that are waaaay too mixed out

8/11

august is running +5 and superbowl#'s is talking about it looking like april

a dewpoint over 75 will get it done

On 8/3/2018 at 4:40 PM, bluewave said:

Strongest July WAR on record with the 500 mb height anomaly beating out 2013. Record heat in New England, humidity here, and rainfall just to our SW and W. 

negative amo's are not what they used to be

18 hours ago, dendrite said:

I probably have mentioned this before, but I know some people with a few cats that go into shelters asking for the oldest cat they have. They give them all a caring and loving home. When one dies, they go back and ask for the oldest cat they have.

It takes special people that are able to do that. They deal with a lot of loss, but the cats go out on top.

fyi

radar looks impressive with tonight's/tomorrow's system

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?type=Virginias-rad-1-24&checked=&prodDim=100&overDim=100

4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

There are few weather fans here, but a lot of snow fans.  Personally I enjoy all of the changes in our weather, I'd get bored if it was always one way or the other.

i get excited over fog

On 8/2/2018 at 2:39 PM, Cfa said:

I can’t wait until it’s our turn for all-time record territory heat.

we need a mean western trough which has been uncommon since the PDO shifted in 2013

8 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Absolutely zero at Jones beach not even a single drop. Seems late in the year for such pronounced marine influence. Waters are plenty warm

that will change later tonight

19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

This rainfall is nuts

like a rain whiteout 

best storm of the summer for me

2 hours ago, Drz1111 said:

Come on forky that sounding is contaminated.  Same with the ominous NAM and nested NAM soundings. 

there's a supercell in n queens/nassau right now and this setup isn't as impressive 

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The NAM has an interesting looking MCS for Saturday. 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_18z/rloop.html

the euro has a similar looking low pressure system. the south side of it has tornado potential with low lcl's and shear. jfk area:

27 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Just plain stupid humidity, @forkyfork is in his glory. 

dewpoint wave no. 3

On 7/22/2018 at 1:57 PM, forkyfork said:

love a good dewpoint wave

bump

.57" so far today

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

I saw my first one during the spring migration at the Jones Beach West End. Brown Pelicans are becoming more common along the South Shore.

http://fireislandandbeyond.com/brown-pelican-on-the-great-south-bay-7-18-17/

the ny metro is in the middle of the coastal flyway which helps a lot. sandy hook is a birder's paradise

13 hours ago, rclab said:

Forky it’s beautiful. Well done. I wonder if the seed pods hanging from the branches are a food source? 

bugs in the tree most likely

i'm in the catskills and saw a scarlet tanager. too bad the camera focused on leaves