buckeye

This is a favorite set up for the nam to want to over amp....and this is the timeframe it loves to do it. So look at it this way, that's the best it got. Honestly putting aside the fact that it's the nam, there were no red flags with that run.

We're not going to mix beyond maybe some nuisance embedded sleet if a low travels from ARK to WV with a fresh Arctic high pushing. I don't care what the soundings say.

So the 18z euro still looks really good. A little further north than the 12z but still would not have mixing issues in central Ohio. This tells me the 00z run should be pretty good. I have a stormvista subscription and I've been following the 06 and 18z euro runs. They've been pretty good indicators of how the next run is going to trend. For instance yesterday's 18z had the sudden southeast shift that occurred at 00z, and today's 06z still showed,the southeast solution. Both times successfully predicting the next trend.

Someone over in the NE forum said when the icon and the jma agree, it's called the ww2 rule.

I think it's the timeframe when the low goes from n. ARK to southern IN that it gets screwy. Then suddenly it's over s. WV. Maybe that's posdible maybe this does go further NW, but there's no way that solution verifies.

Check out the 500map on the 18z and, compare it to the 12z. Heights are actually lower on the 18z throughout the run. ....yet the,surface low is further north and warmer?

I wouldn't sweat the gfs. Looks like it's having issues where to put a surface low at he 72-78. Could actually be on its way to a ukie type solution.

Scratch everything I said about the eps, except the good news part. Last time I use someone else's info without checking first. EPS looks great.... more squarely through the center of OH and around 10" on average

I would think it's a post-dawn start vs. pre-dawn....like7-10am??? for CMH. Earlier for cincy

Just as I would be worried if the euro was the only model showing an amplified warm look, I'm equally worried that it's starting to show a progressive weak look. Hope a compromise with the gfs happens vs. a full on gfs cave.

crazy that they went that way. I was hoping for a more amped look to bring it back to at least where it was last night if not before that. Without any interaction or phasing, a progressive weak system is definitely not out of the realm as fast as things are flying around in this pattern. There is a small threat tomorrow and another threat already next week. We need to start seeing the end of the parade if we want anything truly memorable to happen. Just checked WB....didn't look bad for the Ohio crowd actually, a tad north and lots of 10" amounts. Maybe not a massive big dog, but not bad for a 4-5 day eps mean

good news bad news on the eps. bad news is it's coming in drier for the weekend thread good news is it loves i-70 for next weeks threat...and beyond.

good luck! Over in Columbus we're just thankful this thing developed a vestigial tail

actually hoping the euro ens are bit north.... (wouldn't have expected that)

Actually Columbus is around 10" but that includes the 2" it claims we get tomorrow. To be honest a gfs/euro blend would be awesome

You're gonna piss off the wx gods, lol. Remember, this is now the 'driest' model and it's giving you 5". Only way to get this way more juiced is to amp it up and then we all know that risk. Still some room in between though.

I mentioned yesterday that this seemed like a storm where the sweet spot might 'only' be 6-10". I think there is still opportunity for a little better, especially if the wetter warmer models want to meet half way with the euro.

I'm sure as heck not going to scoff at 8-10" with no mixing. Especially when you consider we were riding a slop line, (even though it was 12-15")

disagree with the 'quickly droping off' part. 4-5" all the way up to Toledo. actually a nice spread the wealth Ohio storm with the heaviest centered where discussed

rest of state is widespread 4-5"

Franklin County 2" on Friday 6-8" for weekend storm total 8-10" Axis of heaviest has moved south about 25 miles A line from Cincy to Chillicothe to Pittsburgh. No mixing issues anywhere near us.

won't be any mixing issues anywhere near i-70....should be a good hit, possibly a bit drier though

so far what I see on the euro, out 72, it'll hold serve if not end up further southeast than 00z.... still early but that's the early look

looked a tad nw, but small enough to be noise from a couple overly-amped members. In fact there's a couple of members that take the low into northeast OH. Take those out and it's probably a tad se of the OP.

Yea I just saw an animation. What do you think about these solutions that seem to take the low further north and then redevelop further south?