buckeye

HRRR is showing the deform band break up with holes at times which is what kills the accums....We need that sucker to be dumping with no breaks if we are gonna reach even the low end of projections. Still far enough out in HRRR-time not to be too worried ...yet.

ILN still going with 6-8".... ...trying to keep optimistic

that is good. so I'm looping the HRRR runs on snowfall. As i've looped the last several runs, (even though the latest looks bad), it's slowly morphing into what the euro snowfall map looks like. It's not there yet, but will be interesting to see if continues towards it.

yea, it's going to be painstaking

thats seems way too fast I'm thinking much later like 9.

I should have put the caveat....I meant straight rain

Latest HRRR drives low right into W PA giving about the eastern 3/4ths plain rain.... talk about a bust if that happens

I was in Columbus. It was drizzling and foggy all day. The sound of the roaring wind woke me up around 4 in the morning, I thought a truck was parked outside reving it's engine, I looked out and you couldn't see across the street....no power and my folks turned on their batter radio and governor Rhodes was making an emergency address. They say once in a lifetime for that one.

hey, even the greatest of all time, blizzard of '78, started as an all day rain storm

not yet... we'll know in the morning

You guys must absolutely HATE social media....lol...I don't blame you. My first gut punch was when the 00z nam came in much warmer...I had a bad feeling at that point even though the gfs held.

you're probably done with liquid....that cold air is pressing pretty good from the nw now starting to dry out Michigan and N.IN

this storm has been a forecasting nightmare for a lot of mets from what I'm reading. OHweather said it best in his last update, "Fck this storm"...lol

it's crazy how many of us live in such close proximity.

...sell out

office park at 23 and powell

I know what you're saying. Models over did the se push of the upper cold today....by quite a bit, (which surprised me too), often the opposite happens. But that shouldn't have a major effect on what happens tonight. Euro has you at 10-11" after the changeover. Hell, cut the euro numbers in half....that's still 5-6 for you and around 4" for us.... plus it'll come in with high winds and heavy rates, my favorite kind of snow. could it fail still?......absolutely, but I sure didn't put all this tracking time into this storm so I can walk away at halftime.

I'm at my office in Lewis Center....small world. Moderate rain but it's that kind of rain that when hits the windshield you can tell it's partial ice.

....wait....Pondo hasn't announced his transfer to Philly yet...

The majority of our snow is projected to be from the deform ban that develops as the low rides to the southeast of us. Today would have been icing on the cake had we been able to hold the upper level temps colder. Yes, that failed, but it doesn't mean tonight fails. The HRRR will change every hour...as it's supposed to. You're in a better spot than most of us anyways.

Yep timing is everything. But the euro as well as some of the mesos are signaling a short but intense snowstorm tonight. another sleepless night....

12z euro is still giv'n CMH love. It kind of matches the timing of the HRRR I described above. Pretty much 7-8" across all of Franklin County in the overnight.

Had this first wave come in as heavy steady precip, I'm sure the snow line would have been further south. When it comes in spotty like this it allows things to warm up quicker above us and you get what we have right now... drizzle with occasional pings.

looks like the change back over from rain to sleet to snow is between 9 and 10..... then it's out of here around 3am and manages to dump around 5 or 6 inches, (roughly), in that short time. That would be a hefty dump in short time, not totally unheard of though. of course that's taking the HRRR pretty much at face value.... that'll change again next hour.