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kayman

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  1. Mesoscale Discussion concerning Metro Atlanta 

    Quote
    Mesoscale Discussion 52
    < Previous MD
    MD 52 graphic

     

    Mesoscale Discussion 0052

       NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

       1052 AM CST Thu Jan 12 2023

     

       Areas affected...east central Alabama and western Georgia

     

       Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

     

       Valid 121652Z - 121745Z

     

       Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

     

       SUMMARY...Tornado threat continues along the eastern advancing line

       of storms which is expected to move into east central

       Alabama/Georgia later today.

     

       DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues to advance eastward

       through northern Alabama. Within this line, transient circulations

       have been noted on radar. Ahead of this line, the KMXX (Maxwell Air

       Force Base) VAD profile depicts 0-1 km storm relative helicity

       around 150-200 m2/s2. 15z RAOB from BMX indicates upstream 0-1km SRH

       around 300 m2/s2. The wind field over eastern Alabama/Georgia is

       expected to increase through the afternoon as flow aloft increases

       in the next few hours. RAP analysis shows 850 mb winds increasing to

       around 45-50 kts by 19-20z. Surface objective analysis indicates

       surface based CAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg across this region and the

       convective inhibition is reduced. This environment will continue to

       be conducive to tornado development within the line of storms, with

       the threat gradually spreading east through the afternoon. A Tornado

       Watch downstream of WW17 will likely be needed for portions of

       eastern Alabama and western Georgia this afternoon.

     

       ..Thornton/Guyer.. 01/12/2023

     

       ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

     

       ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...

     

       LAT...LON 32228624 32468645 32848643 33418613 33928581 34258553

                   34608500 34648467 34618443 34608431 34468395 33988408

                   33708415 33468428 33308438 33058449 32698472 32508486

                   32178529 32108566 32118601 32228624 

     

  2. Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

    I've got breaks here in the upstate as well. That usually doesn't bode well for those to my east. CAE and south should keep their eyes open

    Yeah I think SC will be under the gun. Brad P of WCNC has been hinting at something since last night. It's going to be a surprise event for many today. 

    • Like 1
  3. 2 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

    I was watching this and I'm sure it will continue to cycle

    The atmosphere is getting volatile in east central & south central Alabama and western Georgia right now due to the breaks in the cloud cover & sunshine. 

    The helocity and CAPE values are increasing. Metro Atlanta needs to watch this

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