kayman
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Posts posted by kayman
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The Tuscaloosa storm is on the ground
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Just now, ATDoel said:
Luckily it's on the north side of the metro which is far less populated than the southern side. It's been awhile since we've had a big one on the south side of Bham....
Yes, it is less populated on the northside, but Fultondale, Gardendale have rapidly filling out in the past few years. It's still heavily populated along the the I-65 corridor between Gardendale and downtown Birmingham.
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The Metro Birmingham storm likely going to be a right mover because of its setup. I fear it's also ahead of the main cluster, thus going to maneuver on its own. Graysville, Fultondale, and Gardendale will need to be on alert for sure.
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I'm originally from and grew up in Birmingham. This is a classic setup for a tornado outbreak for sure. I'm certain the one in Metro Birmingham is on the ground. The look and the set like one
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Any and all rotating storms across Central Alabama are likely producing a tornado, per Spann
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Another confirmed tornado touched down this morning at Tallahassee International Airport. The NWS Tallahassee weather office radar was hit by the storm. Surveys will be conducted in the next 36 hours to determine the severity.
We have to do better on covering other areas and other weather conditions in the SE aside from NC and SC snowfall forecasts. Otherwise, we need to recommend renaming to the Carolinas and move the other SE states to other regional subforums.
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I agree that maybe those areas of the Upland South should be included such as Birmingham, Atlanta. We could rename the subforum could be renamed "Tennessee Valley and Upland South". These areas are typically undeserved by the Southeastern subforum.
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NOLA and Baton Rouge seems to have the greatest threat of tornadic activity as nightfall approaches later on today.
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Two days of distinct wording in the forecast referring to an overnight tornado and damaging wind threat across parts of AL and GA due to strong low-level shear. Then redevelopment of storms over N GA, and movement into SC and NC associated with the warm sector of this system. Once again tornado and damaging winds are the main threats due to strong low-level shear over N, E, and NE GA along with SC, and the Southern portion of NC around Metro Charlotte.
QuoteSPC AC 290820 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms associated with a tornado threat and wind damage will be possible Thursday into Thursday night from far southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and across the central Gulf Coast States. ...Southeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... An upper-level low will move from northern Mexico into the southern Plains on Thursday. Divergent flow aloft will overspread eastern Texas and Louisiana as the negatively-tilted system deepens. A large cluster of thunderstorms appears likely to be ongoing in southeast Texas at the start of the period. This convection is forecast to move eastward as a low deepens and moves northeastward into the Arklatex. Although instability will be weak along the attendant surface trough, strong deep-layer shear will create conditions favorable for severe storms. Lift associated with a mid-level jet, rounding the base of the upper-level system, will provide additional support for organized storms. As the mid-level jet moves eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday, thunderstorm development is expected to occur across parts of Louisiana and Mississippi. Instability is forecast to gradually increase across the moist sector, which should be located from Louisiana to southwestern Alabama. Discrete thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold front across the moist sector could have a wind damage and tornado potential. During the late afternoon, the most favorable area would be in far southeast Louisiana, where the models maximize instability at the northern end of the moist axis. The corridor of maximized low-level moisture is forecast to shift eastward across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama during the evening and overnight period. Models suggest the possibility of a convective line located along the moist axis. This line would be associated with a continued wind damage and tornado threat during the overnight period. ..Broyles.. 12/29/2020
QuoteZCZC
PCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290955 SPC AC 290955 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CST Tue Dec 29 2020 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the mid Mississippi Valley on Friday as southwest mid-level flow remains in place along the Eastern Seaboard. The moist sector should be located across much of Georgia and South Carolina. Thunderstorms may develop in Georgia Friday afternoon ahead of the upper-level trough with this convection spreading east-northeastward across South Carolina and into southern North Carolina. Due to strong low-level shear, a tornado threat could exist with this activity, in addition to having a wind damage potential.
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Tornado Warning NCC047-SCC051-242045- /O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0043.201224T2016Z-201224T2045Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington NC 316 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina... Central Horry County in northeastern South Carolina... * Until 345 PM EST. * At 316 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Hammond, or 9 miles east of Conway, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * This dangerous storm will be near... Hammond around 320 PM EST. Longs around 325 PM EST. Goretown around 330 PM EST. Loris around 335 PM EST. Dulah around 340 PM EST. Tabor City, Bethel, Mollie, Nakina, Sidney and Bughill around 345 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Loris Community Hospital. This includes SC Highway 22 between mile markers 13 and 23. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3384 7901 3423 7883 3410 7855 3409 7856 3408 7856 3402 7862 3401 7864 3400 7864 3379 7889 TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 207DEG 35KT 3389 7890 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ 21 -
Tornado Warning NCC101-191-242100- /O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0029.201224T2015Z-201224T2100Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Raleigh NC 315 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Wayne County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 400 PM EST. * At 315 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 11 miles northwest of Mount Olive, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Goldsboro around 335 PM EST. Fremont around 345 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Mar-Mac, Brogden, Nahunta, Elroy and Grantham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3537 7781 3521 7819 3523 7824 3535 7830 3559 7800 3559 7782 3543 7783 3540 7780 TIME...MOT...LOC 2015Z 227DEG 29KT 3534 7817 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN -
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Raleigh NC 235 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Wayne County in central North Carolina... Northern Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 315 PM EST. * At 233 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles west of Clinton, moving northeast at 50 mph. A second thunderstorm, approximately 10 miles to the north, is also capable of producing a tornado. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Clinton around 240 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Hobbton, Salemburg, Brogden, Roseboro and Grantham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3485 7849 3496 7860 3543 7832 3525 7790 3519 7800 3519 7803 3518 7809 3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816 TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 211DEG 43KT 3499 7849 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ 23 -
Tornado Warning NCC051-163-242000- /O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0027.201224T1946Z-201224T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Raleigh NC 246 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Cumberland County in central North Carolina... * Until 300 PM EST. * At 246 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Ammon, or 14 miles north of Elizabethtown, moving northeast at 50 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Clinton around 300 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Salemburg, Roseboro and Bushy Lake Natural Area. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3478 7844 3481 7845 3481 7846 3483 7847 3484 7849 3485 7850 3485 7867 3506 7855 3495 7825 3478 7843 TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 211DEG 42KT 3482 7856 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ 23
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It's amping up right now as we speak. 3 active tornado warned storms w/in the ILM NWS forecast area
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Two more:
Tornado Warning NCC017-242000- /O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0041.201224T1936Z-201224T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington NC 236 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... North central Bladen County in southeastern North Carolina... * Until 300 PM EST. * At 236 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Elizabethtown, moving north at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * This dangerous storm will be near... Ammon around 250 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Bladen County Hospital and Dublin. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3484 7849 3483 7847 3481 7846 3481 7845 3478 7844 3458 7858 3463 7873 3485 7867 3485 7852 3486 7850 TIME...MOT...LOC 1936Z 201DEG 32KT 3467 7863 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ 21__________________________________________________________________________
Tornado Warning NCC101-163-191-242015- /O.NEW.KRAH.TO.W.0026.201224T1935Z-201224T2015Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Raleigh NC 235 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Raleigh has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southern Wayne County in central North Carolina... Northern Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 315 PM EST. * At 233 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles west of Clinton, moving northeast at 50 mph. A second thunderstorm, approximately 10 miles to the north, is also capable of producing a tornado. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Clinton around 240 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Hobbton, Salemburg, Brogden, Roseboro and Grantham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3485 7849 3496 7860 3543 7832 3525 7790 3519 7800 3519 7803 3518 7809 3519 7816 3509 7817 3508 7816 TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 211DEG 43KT 3499 7849 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ 23 -
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Tornado Warning NCC047-SCC051-242000- /O.NEW.KILM.TO.W.0040.201224T1925Z-201224T2000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Wilmington NC 225 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The National Weather Service in Wilmington has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Columbus County in southeastern North Carolina... Central Horry County in northeastern South Carolina... * Until 300 PM EST. * At 225 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Adrian, or 9 miles north of Conway, moving northeast at 40 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Expect damage to mobile homes, roofs, and vehicles. * This dangerous storm will be near... Allsbrook around 235 PM EST. Loris, Green Sea and Goretown around 240 PM EST. Tabor City around 250 PM EST. Sidney, Clarendon, Williams and Mollie around 255 PM EST. Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Cerro Gordo, Loris Community Hospital, Lighthouse Care Center Of Conway and Conway Medical Center. This includes SC Highway 22 between mile markers 2 and 20. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3368 7910 3395 7915 3437 7891 3408 7859 TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 214DEG 36KT 3397 7901 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...0.00IN $$ 21
First Tornado Warning within Tornado Watch 518
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It's started back to back
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 518 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM EST Thu Dec 24 2020 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...The air mass ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will moisten and modestly destabilize this afternoon. Very strong winds through a deep layer will support the possibility of supercell storms including a tornado and damaging wind risk. An additional round of storms, perhaps as a well-organized line, will also move into the region from the west late this evening and potentially pose a severe threat. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Rocky Mount NC to 20 miles south of Myrtle Beach SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22045. ...Guyer -
1 hour ago, janetjanet998 said:
going to be a long day
Sat/radar showing discrete storms developing over the gulf stream off GA and SC moving NNE towards eastern NC as modeled
The fact that these mini supercells are starting to develop over the Gulf Stream is disturbing. This along with the rain shield basically stalled out over Metro Charlotte and Columbia should be a warning sign that this system is setting up a volatile atmospheric environment over Eastern and Central North Carolina
It's 60 degrees now at CLT Airport
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The entire Raleigh/Durham/Fayetteville DMA and areas eastward are in this threat area including Jacksonville, Wilmington, New Bern, and the Tidewater region and the Hampton Roads metro area
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First tornado warning issued:
Tornado Warning
Tornado Warning LAC033-037-091-281945- /O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0093.201028T1921Z-201028T1945Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service New Orleans LA 221 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2020 The National Weather Service in New Orleans has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern St. Helena Parish in southeastern Louisiana... Eastern East Feliciana Parish in southeastern Louisiana... Northeastern East Baton Rouge Parish in southeastern Louisiana... * Until 245 PM CDT. * At 221 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 8 miles west of Montpelier, or 13 miles southwest of Greensburg, moving northwest at 30 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Clinton around 245 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3100 9091 3065 9072 3065 9084 3082 9115 TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 140DEG 28KT 3068 9081 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED HAIL...<.75IN $$ MEFFER -
Just now, Hoosier said:
Yes. Thanks. But my question was because I was wondering if Zeta has the potential to match or outgust Katrina in New Orleans.
Gotcha! There's a 50-50 chance that it could especially if makes it to 110+ mph prior to landfall
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Is anyone under the impression that the NWS Slidell office would be wrong to issue an Excessive Wind Warning for the lower Louisiana parishes upon the eyewall coming upon land? The radar imagery is signifying an intensifying hurricane northern eyewall with intense lightning that could be a Cat 3 when it arrives...
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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:
Anyone remember what the max gust was in New Orleans during Katrina? I know they were on the western end whereas Zeta is more of a bullseye.
I have family in NOLA. Katrina was a minimal Cat 3 with winds around 115-120 mph (sustained) when it hit NOLA in 2005. However, it still had the storm surge of its previous Cat 5 intensity upon its landfall
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1 hour ago, NavarreDon said:
.Ah, my favorite part the tornado threat is starting to come in. One thing I learned from any strengthening tropical system upon landfall is its ground friction and localized wind shear is greater than sustaining or dying landfalling tropical systems. This is going to be a likely tornado outbreak for anyone along the front right quadrant of this system. Greater NOLA, Greater Birmingham, and Metro Atlanta will need to be very attentive of the tornadic potential through tonight and tomorrow morning...
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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event
in Southeastern States
Posted
Damage along AL 69 in Southern Tuscaloosa county. TOG in Tuscaloosa County head towards East Tuscaloosa and Holt.