kayman

15 minutes ago, Nick Esasky said:

FFC reduced their totals slightly this morning for Atlanta proper.

 

It's likely to be wrong as FFC is always.  I don't trust their forecasts.

31 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Not too much surprise but the track is being adjusted north and west as the ridge is holding strong. 

This is what I was warning people about last night.  This storm is not going to jettison east a quickly as they originally forecasted.  It's starting to carve a track of its own regardless of the incoming trough to the west northwest of the storm.  It's what I call doing a "frontal/jetstream buckle".  Michael might wind up making landfall closer to Destin than it will be to Panama City.

7 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

I was just thinking the same thing... don’t see it turning quite as hard as projected...  either way this storm is a monster and nothing to be taken lightly...  I think inland winds will be much more of an issue even into the Carolinas 

Exactly, I have a hard time believing that areas of east Alabama like Auburn/Opelika and parts of west central Georgia like Metro Atlanta are going avoid unscathed by this system.  It's westward bend is indicative of a likely shift further west than being forecasted by the models.  I'm here in Atlanta and feel like we are going to experience 39+ mph winds gusts for an extended period in the next 36 hours and we are not prepared again for this.  I feel like this is the surprise nobody is expecting from this system is a shift to the west when it makes landfall.  This thing reminds me too much of Opal, all the way down to its track.

I have the feeling that this storm is not going to shift east as quickly as forecasted...

Here's footage of the tornado in Lee County Alabama

Reports are there was a tornado touchdown in the Opelika, Beauregard, and Smiths Station area of Lee County, Alabama with this tornado warned storm.  The cuplet has redevloped near Crawford and west of Phenix City near Ladonia in Russell County, Alabama

Quote

SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 13
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   325 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Northern and central Alabama
     Northeast Mississippi
     Southern Tennessee

   * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until
     1100 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
     Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

   SUMMARY...Several severe storms will develop along a cold front
   through this evening producing strong tornadoes, very large hail,
   and damaging winds.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
   north and south of a line from 15 miles south of Tupelo MS to 45
   miles northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch
   see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 25040.

   ...Grams

PDS Tornado Watch issued until 11:00PM Central

The storm over Madison County is rotating with large hail...