BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Charlotte looks like sleet by 120.
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Heavy snow looks like from Charlotte N&W at 114.
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Looks like everything is well within noise range with the last run through hour 90.
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The canadian always seems to do well with that too, not sure why.
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Extrapolating the UKMET out past 144, I think it would've ended up looking like some of these other runs of operational models that showed 20"+ totals across a majority of the piedmont. That is providing it stayed cold enough.
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thank god for 2" of QPF, right?
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I trust the NAM with thermal profiles in these situations, other details are much more iffy.
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I apologize if I missed this being mentioned but the UKMET had a significant snowfall increase on its clown maps at 0z.
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and I should've probably mentioned that when I was talking about the ensembles. If it's 2" of QPF, I could easily see it being 6" of snow and 3" of sleet. It could always change to rain but I cant see the surface warming that much with north winds for the duration.
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Yep, this too. This isnt one of these la nina storms where we struggle for QPF. This thing is juiced up.
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I really doubt this storm ends up as 100% snow for anyone except the mountains, including the foothills. The ratio of sleet to snow obviously grows as you push further east but the question is how much sleet. I do feel pretty confident right now that it's either going to be sleet or snow at this juncture IMBY. If I was s&e of 85(Cary, Raleigh, Most of Wake and Johnston), I'd be really concerned about a massive ice storm. I also feel like we're going to see a colder surface reflection with the damming and heavy precip.
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Last night on the 0z GFS, 17" of snow fell in Burlington in 9 hours. 8.6" of it fell between 15-18z.
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I would generally agree with you but we have two ensemble model suites screaming about this.
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Maybe read less and post more?
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One thing I've noticed, periodically on the extracted data, is the chance for TSSN on Sunday Afternoon.
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Not sure where you're getting this information.
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These aren’t just one or two runs skewing results. It’s almost the entire ensemble suite showing double digits at Hickory. Only 4/20 show less than 3” at Chapel Hill.
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GEFS means went nuts at 6z: 8” at Charlotte 11” at Chapel Hill and RDU 13” at Lincolnton 14” at Burlington 15” at Greensboro 16” at Hickory
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ICON improved again at 6z
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I only get around 20”. I’m a little salty right now.
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Roxboro is the winner this go around with 38” of snow. I can’t believe I just typed that.
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Heavy snow over Charlotte at 156
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Betting the clown maps show something close to a Burlington jackpot.
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Ensembles, y’all. Ensembles.
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Snow to sleet to snow.
