BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Kinda looks like the ICON has looked.
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I can respect that but we’re still out of the NAM wheelhouse, IMO.
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...you’ve somehow missed the Euro, FV3 GFS, The Canadian, The ICON and the UKMET?
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I can’t even imagine. That front end thump does well and it blows the whole thing. If the thump underperforms, you might not even get that. That isn’t even to mention potential for damaging ZR in SE CLT.
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That one bust in 2015 is where I finally threw my hands up. Mean of 14 inches 12 hours before a storm my ass.
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Definitely won’t disagree with you there but it’s useful in this sense because you can see the NAM is pretty much arguing with it’s own ensemble members.
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Here’s hoping
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I noticed that at TDF. There were less members with low numbers but it drug the number down.
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Or you look at Charlotte where the 18Z NAM had zero inches but the 21z SREF had 4.5.
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Right at 3
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SREF snow mean for CLT remained at about 4.5”
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@isohume if you get us a foot of snow, I’ll find the Vikings a kicker that can’t miss. Seriously though, not jealous of y’all tonight. What a mess of a situation to try and hash out.
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18z GEFS means looking healthier
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Could definitely see this being a situation in CLT where Davidson/Mooresville see double digits, Huntersville gets 5”, an inch or two at carowinds and freezing rain once you get to Dave Lyle Blvd in RH.
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Soundings are all around better this run, whether its temps or the snow growth zone.
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Yes, I'd throw out the NAM if the roles were reversed because long range NAM.
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They said as much in their disco, as I recall. Might want to fact check me.
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The percentage chance of seeing a foot of snow increased fairly significantly on 12z EPS.
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Mean snowfall for CLT on the SREF this run is basically unchanged, around 4.5"
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It depends where in CLT. Ballantyne? No. Shuffletown or Mountain island? better shot.
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I think it depends on how much snow or freezing rain. If it's either of those, you could see limbs breaking. Not so much with sleet.
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Losing half an inch of QPF will do that
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UKMET is really cold at the surface.
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FV3 seems to really want to make US 74 the cut off, as per usual
