BullCityWx
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Everything posted by BullCityWx
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Someone is going to have an epic meltdown if they get outdone by Baton Rouge.
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Plymouth State soundings are down. Not sure how I get through a storm without them.
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We can’t ask for better trends than what we’ve seen the last 24 hours.
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I wouldn’t say faster. The ICON, in particular, is gonna be much slower.
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The ICON this run at hour 120 was 300 miles SW at the 500mb level.
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Half a foot IMBY this run. Lock it in.
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Second storm is rain for everybody who isn’t on the summit of Grandfather on the control.
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The euro control run has 2” at RDU with 4-5” north of 40/85 in Durham and Orange Counties.
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Definitely with that first event yes. I could see southern wake and Johnston get just rain while Hillsborough/Durham/Oxford get a decent event.
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I wouldn’t say so. Along and north of 85 should do okay. I’d even guess brier creek and the airport would do alright .
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It just doesn’t seem likely that the second event gets drove into Nashville with the blocking in place without popping a secondary coastal. Trash.
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Just another reminder the GFS is trash.
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January 2021 Medium/Longterm Pattern Discussion.
BullCityWx replied to AMZ8990's topic in Tennessee Valley
Honestly, Canada being warm(ish) right now is the only thing keeping us from an I-10 storm threat as opposed to I-40. I’ll never wish to see warmer air but I’m genuinely concerned about suppression with what we’re seeing. -
The euro control was on its way to a very nice solution at 18z.
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I mean you can’t argue that but that’s true almost every year.
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We don’t need Canada to be vodka cold. Would it be necessary for heavy snow and temps in the teens? Probably. If Canada was full of extreme cold, we’d be talking about an I-10 snowstorm.
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You’ve got pretty much a perfect pattern. -NAO, +PNA, -AO.
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Should be noted the euro digs Fridays low 150 miles SE of the GFS.
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0Z GFS has a major southside Virginia snowstorm. Not too far of a shift south needed for people north of 40. With the pattern advertised, a south trend is entirely possible.
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I will say the GFS v16 seems to have promise .
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The King is still the King. The Canadian has made ground on the UKMET. The GFS is still out to lunch.
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To be fair, I think Brad is stronger in the mid range(5-10). I prefer Webber, DT and Allan for LR. Just my two cents though.
