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cyclone77

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Everything posted by cyclone77

  1. That new line rolling into the tri-state area of IA/WI/IL means business. Quite a few wind damage reports have been rolling in, and now there's even a tor warning southwest of Dubuque. SPC meso page has been showing steep mid-level lapse rates feeding in from the west, and helping to very quickly rebuild any instability lost from the earlier MCS. Could get interesting down this was in the next hour or so.
  2. Yeah was puzzled that they weren't anticipating a new watch. The MCS is maintaining, and is only moving into a more favorable environment.
  3. East Iowa and north IL remaining idle, just as CAMS have been showing for days. We don't need the rain anyway so it's all good.
  4. Pretty sweet vid. Around the 55 sec mark you can see a large chunk of tree floating in the air, and eventually crashes around the 1:02 mark. Around the 1:04 mark you can see a tree get uprooted on the right side of the vid, just after that large piece of tree lands.
  5. Brought to you by Broyles. Needless to say, let's see what subsequent outlooks show by other forecasters.
  6. Just west of Cedar Rapids at Atkins. 0654 PM TSTM WND GST ATKINS 42.00N 91.86W 06/15/2019 E70 MPH BENTON IA FIRE DEPT/RESCUE SUSTAINED 50-55 MPH, RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.
  7. The supercell out ahead of the main line, north of Burlington IA looks like it wants to put down a tor.
  8. Looks like there was a stretch of 70-80mph winds just south of us last night. Several very large trees were uprooted, or snapped off along route 92 between Joslin and Hooppole.
  9. That storm delivered a torrential downpour here with a tremendous display of lightning, and close thunder. Had some pretty strong southeasterly gusts during the height of it. There's definitely a meso vortex associated with this. Just under an inch from this storm alone so far.
  10. Numerous 1" hail reports coming out of the IL QCA the past hour or so. We were under a warning for those storms but they are quickly crapping the bed, warning cancelled. Did give us a nice light show in the western/southwestern sky the past hour or so.
  11. Very nice! That was a very photogenic tor. And lol @ the Amish chaser at the 9min mark in the vid.
  12. Some nice towers started going up a little east of here, so I jumped in the vehicle and went after them hoping they'd go. Ended up being a waste of time, as they crapped the bed pretty quickly.
  13. Yeah that LLJ should feed tonight's MCS all through the morning tomorrow, so it'll likely go on for quite awhile. HRRR/3km doesn't break out new convection until around, or just after 00z. Good chance it actually happens a bit later than that. Strong capping will be in place just south of the boundary, and with the nocturnal inversion starting to settle in just as the convection finally takes off it makes you wonder just how robust any surface-based convection can get. Good chance tomorrow evening's biggest threat will come from torrential rains from the storms that may have a tendency to train over the same areas as storm motion vectors parallel the nearly stationary boundary.
  14. Not surprised to see the lack of a marginal for parts of Iowa/southern WI/north IL for tomorrow, as forecasters like to stay consistent day to day. Broyles went with a general thunder for those areas for day2, as he had done on day3, which will be a mistake. In subsequent forecasts a marginal will likely be added by a different forecaster. It's possible a slight might eventually be needed as well, as there is sufficient shear and instability for organized severe. Question is just how much of it. Simulated radar from 3km NAM shows some scattered activity. Nice little vort is well timed, and should provide some additional lift. Surface flow looks to remain fairly backed ahead of the front, with fairly decent shear in the lower 3km.
  15. http://weatherdaddy.us/weatherdaddy/index.html?q=61265&makeDefault=on
  16. Man, every time I see your user name this always pops in my head lol.
  17. Posted this in the lakes sub, but guess I'll post it here as well. My time lapse from near Nelson MO, or about 30 miles west of Columbia MO.
  18. Interesting to see your perspective. I saw those same cu bubbling up, but they were southeast of where I was.
  19. For two runs in a row now the EC has a relatively decent setup over the eastern Dakotas/western MN for Friday. Hopefully it's on to something as the GFS is quite different. Decent mid-level flow arrives atop a plume of deep moisture/instability. Wind profiles look pretty respectable. Something to watch anyway.
  20. Don't know if this was ever posted here, but this is pretty damn sad. Her brother died after graduating from high school just before the tornado hit.
  21. Something interesting I just noticed for the first time. Looking at the 2234z scan you can already see the rapid intensification of the meso just off the surface. The 1.5° tilt shows over 170kt g2g, compared to a broad 100kt g2g at the lowest tilt (0.5°). The next scan at 0.5° at 2239 jumped up to about 180kt g2g. Definitely a good example of why it's important to keep an eye on the various tilts. 0.5° 1.5°
  22. Don't know if this one was posted yet. Sort of an interesting perspective here shot at the University of Alabama. The video starts about 15min before the tornado moves past when it was still raining. It's interesting watching the updraft base/wall cloud/tornado appear out of the rain of the FFD.
  23. Wow, that's real close. Just by looking at GE the damage just northwest of that location looks very bad.
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