LVblizzard

If the NAM and GFS come north at 18z it’s time to start getting excited! I’d take another 4-5” in a heartbeat.

Some of the GEFS members say Friday night-Saturday could be significant. Ceiling is high-ish with this one but we need a lot to go right. Most likely scenario still seems to be a widespread 1-3”/2-4” event.

We have been NAM'd!

0z RGEM looking decent for Friday night into Saturday with a region-wide 2-3”.

It is actually comical how far off yesterday’s 12z Euro was. Many of the areas in the 2-4” zone got a foot. And most of south Jersey away from Philly got shut out or close to it.

Euro came north and now gives the region 1-2” Saturday.

2 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

Last gasp of heavy snow coming through now in Macungie.  Should be ending in the next 30 minutes. Measurements near a foot thus far. I dread removing this crap. Power outages will be exponentially going up  in the next few hours as the snow is melting off the limbs and the shear weight of snow breaking the limbs.

I hear tree limbs cracking every few minutes outside my place.  Hoping my power stays on here. There aren’t many outages around me yet.

Got about 9” with my shoddy measuring technique. Storm is winding down now. Not looking forward to shoveling this cement.

11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

This will be a 2"+ batch that's going to roll through soon....going to be cool along w/the wind.

32F

I’m at the northern end of that band right now. Coming down hard. 1-2”/hr rates.

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Here’s one last look at the 6z Euro for this storm today.

Yesterday’s 6z and 12z Euro runs busted horribly. It had 3-6” in the Poconos and they’re already approaching a foot.

2 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

Those overnight models weren’t lying. Jackpot came back north brother


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Much colder than modeled leading to higher ratios too. Maybe those 10:1 weenie maps weren’t so far off.

Just woke up in Allentown and holy crap, we have half a foot already! And it looks like nothing but straight rippage on the radar for the next 3-4 hours. Could we hit a foot??

4 minutes ago, CoolHandMike said:

Unless snowing while it's 41°F is a new thing, no, it's not snowing in KoP atm.

I mean, I’ve seen snow at 41F plenty of times before. But it’s almost always some flurries from decaying lake effect bands in the fall or spring. At KOP right now every level 850mb and below is above freezing. For now, anyway.

4 minutes ago, Stormman96 said:

The new reported it was snowing already in kop  can someone confirm  cant believe it would be snowing this early 

It’s raining in Allentown so I highly doubt it’s snowing in KOP.

Radar filling in very nicely in MD and central PA. This thing is about to get wild in 3-4 hours!

Hi-res RGEM went crazy for the LV and Poconos!

Just now, anthonyweather said:

I’m not sure what models those dropsondes go into, but the point of them doing it was to figure out exactly where it’s going to track.. and 0z has bumped everything up for us


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I just worry we get dryslotted while the Poconos and Philly burbs both get crushed. It’s happened before and it’s a concern for me with every storm like this. You never know where the banding will set up until it actually does.

25 minutes ago, anthonyweather said:

New RAP bumps her way north


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And the latest RAP brings the heavy bands back into the LV. At this point it’s basically just entertainment looking at these unless there’s some crazy last minute trend.

1 minute ago, anthonyweather said:

RRFS coming in now, still dumping at this hour though


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This. This is the model I choose to believe.

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I will take my 7.2" of snow and call it a winter.

Latest HRRR ups you to 7.9”!

Snow reports in Collegeville and KOP on mPING. Those have to be bogus, right?

0z runs so far are not good for the Philly burbs. 3-6” now compared to the 6-12” solutions from earlier today.

2 minutes ago, snowwors2 said:

Maps (final hour version‼️)⁉️

Here’s the HRRR. The RAP is similar.

Latest RAP and HRRR back off quite a bit. I’m getting tired…

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

If anything the hr³ is juicier over extreme sepa this run.

Still snowing for Philly eastward.