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nwohweather

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Everything posted by nwohweather

  1. nwohweather
    Well well things definitely trended up for me in NW Ohio! I really like the consensus of 4-6" here in Toledo
  2. nwohweather
    2011-12 was a lovely winter in my opinion. It does stink when the snowmobile and ice skates stay in the garage but the weather was beautiful and sunny which was a nice reprieve considering what was on the horizon. I think 2013-14 was honestly overwhelming, the constant snow and cold just wore you down. I do like snow, but 86" was too much for me
  3. nwohweather
    I believe it is due to the abnormally dry air off to the east of the low. Typically the cold conveyor belt moistens as it flows under the warm conveyor belt when wrapping around a storm and dries off a bit turning into snow on the backend of a low. This is honestly a perfect CAD example as you can see how as this moves east it drops freezing rain/sleet all over the Apps
  4. nwohweather
    It isn't here yet? Honestly one of the more mild winters I've seen temperature wise. Would not be shocked at all to see this be a backloaded winter though, it has all the hallmarks of that happening
  5. nwohweather
    Yeah I guess there is that baby low sweeping through tomorrow. Regardless of accumulations, that is one heck of a shot of freezing rain/sleet that goes through Northern IL/IN/OH on the Euro Friday night-Saturday morning. That alone is enough to cause significant travel impacts
  6. nwohweather
    It wouldn't shock me if this does trend south, typically in a loaded pattern your rule of thumb is storms keep going south of previous ones. Not always correct, but typically your cold is entrenched enough to kind of guide the low. If anything I don't like the dry air off to the east. It could eat into some snow totals a bit
  7. nwohweather
    Well I'm going less on models, and more on actuality here. It may be a Colorado Low with a solid gulf stream of moisture, but there are three streams at play as always which can make a big difference on different sectors of the storm
  8. nwohweather
    As I said earlier it is kind of weird to have such a strong high immediately to the Northeast instead of back to the west. What I do wonder with two of the three conveyor belts being drier air do you guys think it will lead to a colder and drier storm than is currently being modeled? My thoughts are that QPF is going to drop or be less than what is expected because of this
  9. nwohweather
    Kind of wild to see the ridging that enforces the cold air ahead of this thing, should lead to quite a bit of CAD east of the Appalachians. Worries me quite a bit with moisture content, I know it has a solid flow out of the gulf but sucking cold dry air in from the Cold Conveyor Belt has me nervous, that moist air is key to heavy snow totals
  10. nwohweather
    Hmm looks much better. Anything to give me a reason for working from home for a few days I'm here for. Classic 6-10" heavy snow event for this area at this point
  11. nwohweather
    What is unacceptable about it? Reminds me of the line Joe Bastardi of Accuweather used to say, "Enjoy the weather because it's the only one you get." Regardless it is an ENSO neutral winter with temps running a little bit above average, not a solid La Nina delivering clippers like a automotive assembly plant. Wouldn't be shocked if February absolutely roars
  12. nwohweather
    Not shocking after the extended cold seen in November and December that it’s mild from late Dec-mid Jan
  13. nwohweather
    Wild storm. Snowstorm, then sleet, then line of storms followed by a monster front and a nice lake effect event. Weird storm
  14. nwohweather
    It showed much deeper convection on the models than what we are seeing
  15. nwohweather
    This really isn’t that shocking. Huge severe outbreak in the South robbed this thing of a lot of its moisture. I posted a few days ago about how it may rob the cold side of the storm and sure enough that’s what’s happening
  16. nwohweather
    Storm mode was terrible. Throw in VBV and essentially too much forcing and you have a mess of storms and a huge line. That line of storms is massive right now, but hard to get anything other than spin ups along it.
  17. nwohweather
    Yeah this has bust all over it. I may come back to eat my words but messy storm mode is ruining the whole thing as well as clockwise turning with height. If anything I think tomorrow has a better chance with more organization to produce, but this isn’t a very clean outbreak
  18. nwohweather
    You'll know more than I about this but doesn't heavy rain give off quite a bit of latent heat which would then help it turn into a higher percentage of sleet falling as opposed to strictly freezing rain?
  19. nwohweather
    Disagree entirely with so much gulf moisture being pumped into this thing. Unless you believe the LLJ is being overdone, I see no reason to believe that a warm bias would be occurring. I believe the bias you are mentioning has been a warm season bias, not a winter bias. And even then that is because soil moisture affects results
  20. nwohweather
    Really like the Euro and the dry slot it is showing. Also have to take into consideration that a major severe outbreak down south could disrupt moisture transport and lead to slightly lesser totals, especially on the cold side of this low
  21. nwohweather
    Eh it's kinda weird though. Especially with Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook
  22. nwohweather
    Haha we've hit a stalemate weather wise. Spring & Summer and its severe weather/heat waves/flooding keep it more lively
  23. nwohweather
    I had a teacher call it that in college. Basically he called the Cutter a Runner and a Miller B a cutter since it cuts across the GL. So many of these definitions are NE based
  24. nwohweather
    Ahh see I was always taught that was a Great Lakes Runner, similar to the App Runner just farther west. Then you have your Panhandle Hooks, Miller B and Alberta Clipper
  25. nwohweather
    That isn't a cutter
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