nwohweather

Kind of wild to see the ridging that enforces the cold air ahead of this thing, should lead to quite a bit of CAD east of the Appalachians. Worries me quite a bit with moisture content, I know it has a solid flow out of the gulf but sucking cold dry air in from the Cold Conveyor Belt has me nervous, that moist air is key to heavy snow totals

Hmm looks much better. Anything to give me a reason for working from home for a few days I'm here for. Classic 6-10" heavy snow event for this area at this point

58 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

 It was chilly during the first half of November...but ever since then, it has been unacceptably mild and boring...going on for 8 weeks now.  How is this not shocking?  As I always say, people have incredibly low expectations for winter in this sub-forum.  Not singling you out, of course...but it's maddening. 

Where is the cold air...especially the cold nights?????  They have vanished.  Since November 16th, 85% of the days at ORD had a low temp of 20F or higher...with the coldest temp of only 10F.  And the 85% will continue to increase during the rest of January, if the medium-range guidance is to be believed. What is happening???  Heck, I would be upset if 50% of the days during this period had a low temp of 20F or higher...but 85%+ is a whole new level of *******.     

What is unacceptable about it? Reminds me of the line Joe Bastardi of Accuweather used to say, "Enjoy the weather because it's the only one you get." Regardless it is an ENSO neutral winter with temps running a little bit above average, not a solid La Nina delivering clippers like a automotive assembly plant.

Wouldn't be shocked if February absolutely roars

Not shocking after the extended cold seen in November and December that it’s mild from late Dec-mid Jan

Wild storm. Snowstorm, then sleet, then line of storms followed by a monster front and a nice lake effect event. Weird storm

That's not whats happening so far. The arc of rain has been more progressive, instead of training.

This really isn’t that shocking. Huge severe outbreak in the South robbed this thing of a lot of its moisture. I posted a few days ago about how it may rob the cold side of the storm and sure enough that’s what’s happening

So as far as NE Texas into Dallas this was an absolute bust. Schools cancelled events Friday because the forecast and most the region had run-of-the-mill spring-like storms. 
 
My question for those much smarter than me: Why? Parameters were ideal. 

Yeah this has bust all over it. I may come back to eat my words but messy storm mode is ruining the whole thing as well as clockwise turning with height.

If anything I think tomorrow has a better chance with more organization to produce, but this isn’t a very clean outbreak

41 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

This sounding over northern IL from the 12z Euro illustrates the point I've made about the model ptype algorithm potentially overforecasting freezing rain and underforecasting sleet. In the lower right of the pivotalwx soundings, they have temperature and wet bulb profile information.

 

The positive and negative energies in J/kg are from the Bourgoin layer energy ptype technique. When there is a warm layer aloft sufficient for full melting, whether ptype is sleet or freezing rain depends on the negative energy below it. Two of my co-workers have done extensive work on modifying the Bourgoin method based off observed soundings and ptype observations from the events used and they're getting a paper published in AMS.

 

Many of the NWS offices in the area use this method for ptype derivation. In it, the studies done show that when negative energies get greater than -100 J/kg, sleet probs steadily increase and -125 J/kg or more is 100% sleet probs with lower freezing rain probs even if there is more positive energy aloft. Based off the wet bulb profile showing -156 I think that sounding would support sleet more than freezing rain even though best guess precip type is listed as freezing rain.

 

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

 

 

 

 

You'll know more than I about this but doesn't heavy rain give off quite a bit of latent heat which would then help it turn into a higher percentage of sleet falling as opposed to strictly freezing rain?

4 minutes ago, Moosey2323 said:

I think the general rule of thumb is to underestimate the northward extent of the warm front, especially in situations with convection to the south. The Euro/Canadian seems to place the warm front too far north. I think the NAM 3km is the better solution.

Disagree entirely with so much gulf moisture being pumped into this thing. Unless you believe the LLJ is being overdone, I see no reason to believe that a warm bias would be occurring. I believe the bias you are mentioning has been a warm season bias, not a winter bias. And even then that is because soil moisture affects results

Really like the Euro and the dry slot it is showing. Also have to take into consideration that a major severe outbreak down south could disrupt moisture transport and lead to slightly lesser totals, especially on the cold side of this low

Just now, RogueWaves said:

I think any system that gains as much latitude as longitude as it heads east could be called a "cutter". Geographic location is irrelevant (unless you are SE of the track, ofc)

Eh it's kinda weird though. Especially with Colorado Low/Panhandle Hook

Just now, Thundersnow12 said:

Forum has really shit a brick. Bring back the glory days of 2011. 

Arguing cutter names lol 

Haha we've hit a stalemate weather wise. Spring & Summer and its severe weather/heat waves/flooding keep it more lively

Just now, Chicago Storm said:

Been around doing this for a while now, and have never heard of lakes runner.

I had a teacher call it that in college. Basically he called the Cutter a Runner and a Miller B a cutter since it cuts across the GL. So many of these definitions are NE based

20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Yes it is.

Tracks from the MS Delta, to Terre Haute, to near GRR.

Ahh see I was always taught that was a Great Lakes Runner, similar to the App Runner just farther west. Then you have your Panhandle Hooks, Miller B and Alberta Clipper

31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

12z UK has a cutter.... big snow centered from northern MO to Milwaukee to Traverse City.

That isn't a cutter

Honestly thank God we have not had too much snow to this point, if you had a solid snowpack with this storm approaching the flooding would be near record levels, especially in Indiana and Ohio

Agreed, especially since these tend to come in a little deeper than just about any other low pressure type that affects the region. The icing potential could be staggering however, especially for Indy, Detroit, Toledo, Cleveland and the GTA. Someone is going to get a ton in the freezing rain/sleet department if this pans out

Ahh looks like a classic Panhandle Hook on the horizon. I'd be pretty happy if I were in Chicago or Milwaukee, other points east are going to be in a much stickier ball game. 

Also the PWAT's on this look absolutely insane, the moisture rush out of the gulf could lead to an epic ice storm in the battleground. Definitely has the look of a big dog storm

It's not a cutter folks, a cutter literally slashes in a E-W swath across the area. Your SW-NE swaths are typically panhandle hooks, if it runs up the spine of the Apps it is an App Runner

This wind is wild. Maybe only 1-2” but it is blowing at 20-30 easy

It is interesting to ponder which event is more likely to happen again, Morch or a tornado outbreak like April 27, 2011.  I'd actually go with the tornado outbreak being more likely to repeat.  One, we have already seen an outbreak that is relatively comparable or even more impressive in metrics besides the total tornado count (talking about 4/3/74 of course).  The other thing is that tornado outbreaks are singular weather events.  I'd argue you need even more to go right to get such extreme warm departures in a month.

For the US
1- April 27th 2011 Super Outbreak. In an already incredibly active month this day made it historic. Probably the biggest event so far in my lifetime of following weather. I'm 29
2- Hurricane Harvey Extreme Flooding in Texas.
3- March 2012 Warmth
4- Joplin EF5 Tornado
5- Hurricane Michael Oct 2018
6- Superstorm Sandy 2012
7- 2012 Heat Wave and Drought
8- Winter Storm Jonas Jan 16
9- Groundhog Day Storm 2011
10- 2013-14 Winter was one of the coldest on record for much of the Midwest and Eastern part of the country

Coming from a Toledoan here...

June 5-6 2010 Tornadoes (absolutely smoked NW Ohio)

March 2012 Torch (I believe April wound up being a colder month)

November 2013 Tornadoes (heck of an outbreak across the GL)

Winter of 2013-14. Insane season! 40” in January with 10” falling on New Years Day and then 13” blizzard hitting us 4 days later. 86” in the Lower GL is something that will probably never happen again

The rainy summer of 2015

April 2016 Snowstorm. 10” in early April! Was incredibly hard and experienced Thundersnow

August 2016 Tornadoes. Another wild event, followed the EF3 from out by Napoleon into Maumee

Holidays 2016-2017 Arctic Cold. Insane to remember, didn’t hit 20° for two consecutive weeks. Most days were around zero

Memorial Day 2019 Tornadoes. Heck of a night outbreak for SW and Central Ohio

Nationally I’m going...

#5... Joplin Tornado
#4... Hurricane Harvey & Flooding
#3... Groundhog Day Blizzard of 2011
#2... Hurricane Michael obliterates panhandle
#1... April 2011 Tornado Outbreak