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nwohweather

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  1. Yeah could be a long night with the dogs lol. We'll see how long that line can sustain itself. Some pretty spooky soundings on the HiRes NAM for the N half of IN and lower MI through midnight. I'm gonna bank on my Climo that they die out was they pass LAF for my area. 

    It should be fine as the LLJ gets a bit stronger this evening. Definitely a hell of an environment off to the east to sustain any storms for quite awhile
  2. Enhanced risk expanded slightly south and further east to Detroit, 30% sig wind introduced over Northern Indiana and Southern Michigan. They're expecting mature supercell's ahead of the line so some areas could have a tornado threat and then damaging wind right behind it 

    You’re not in a bad spot there. Some of the soundings to your south and west were rather ominous along with the HRRR guidance. Have to sigh at yet another post sunset tornado threat, they’re never very fun
  3. 4 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

    Despite the warm, moist air surging north into Iowa, most models show little, if any, storm activity around here.  Are we capped or something?

    Yes. The Euro shows it breaking and their riding it is my guess

  4. IWX also confirmed two fairly long trackers that went from Stueben County into Branch County MI. If warm front had gotten further north there'd have been way more tornadoes.

    The models always underestimate the power of a cold lake. Nothing like the 20 degree swing between Findlay and Toledo that tends to happen this time of year. We’ll often golf around Findlay and BG due to the warmer air
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  5. On 4/3/2025 at 7:20 PM, Chinook said:

    On the IWX web site, they have confirmed a tornado at Bourbon, Indiana (not near Ohio) that was EF-1, 17 miles. That was close to a family member of mine.

    Unreal how many actually touched down. I see there was another in Clyde as well. I do not envy IWX and CLE with the beam heights in this area. Toledo proper has the airport radar but that is what it is. 

  6. 15 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

    Warm front is just not going to make it up here. Looks to stay south of the border now. Couldn’t have been the diarrhetic rain we had for 12 hours straight. It just wouldn’t stop. 

    Pretty ominous looking for the Ft. Wayne region though. 

    Punting for Toledo as well. Lake Erie wins

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