nwohweather

9 hours ago, largetornado said:

Rap sounding from  northwest Ohio. What prevented a mode significant tornado? 

A late day lake breeze pretty much saved Toledo. Put one of those major tornadoes in metro Toledo, we would have had a very bad problem

Clearly two tornadoes confirmed by radar here

13 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:

Another PDS tornado for Indiana and Ohio border

Definitely deserving of a moderate risk today. Hot take, the NWS being in Norman, OK comes with biases

3 minutes ago, Chinook said:

tornado near Shelbyville IN

What’s your thoughts on the Paulding county cell? Some better shear and helicity off to the east may help it tighten up fully IMO

3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said:

That tornadic storm that moved into me I think only died because of crossing the front which is parked over the county, I was sweating bullets 

It looks like the Ohio Turnpike is sort of the line. Decent amount of CIN in place at the moment in the mid layers. I think the cell around Paulding, OH could stay tornadic until around Bowling Green
 

 

STP’s are very high in NW Ohio at the moment. That Indiana cell could explode as it heads east. Only caveat is that the air seems drier in NW Ohio

East wind off the lake may put a lid on this for Toledo proper. Areas to the south though…

That Ft Wayne storm looks legit

Fremont, IN just was hit by a large tornado

Headed to Bowling Green, Ohio to chase. Instability isn’t even high where those large tornadoes are at the moment either

SPC should consider a MDT as well

Man the atmosphere around Findlay is absolutely juiced at the moment. Serious ingredients in play

20 minutes ago, Powerball said:

To address the point of whether yesterday was a bust, per the SPC, the expectation would be for 20+ more tornado reports *AND/OR* a derecho with widespread winds of 80+ MPH.

Source:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/prob_cat_mar22.html

So technically, once all of the reports are confirmed (there's only 7 so far), this event will likelly end up falling short.

But the pedantry of whether yesterday was a bust aside, from a real world standpoint, it doesn't matter. Possibly multiple lives have been lost and at least one town has been destroyed. Plus, there were over 300 severe weather reports in total yesterday, which is impressive in any setup.

I'm glad someone brought this up. I can't hate on the High risk because it was a very small area that had it. Moderate would have been fine but we did get a truly violent tornado that was long tracked.

If the lunchtime line can put a nice boundary down, it may get pretty dicey this evening. Van Wert to Findlay would be an outstanding place from a chase perspective to scout out.

Idk if anyone buys into the “nudge theory” but that’s a textbook display north of Tulsa. Has to be a huge twister there

24 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Yes I agree with Tuesday 10% centered around Dayton, straddles IN/OH border. From what I recall driving to Detroit, that's quite chasable territory. LLJ is forecast to be roaring into the vicinity. Right Rear/Entrance of jet streak should promote lift. The morning stuff is going to be on the Left Front/Exit. Right entrance is sometimes fickle, but an excellent boundary will sit underneath it. Tuesday looks like a classic outflow re-generation day.

Then on Wednesday it could be anywhere with the rain enhanced boundary sinking south. Unfortunately, it looks like it could be Kentucky which isn't great chase terrain. Though some open ag spots are available. Wednesday could also go berserk the northern half of the Mid-South MO/IL, but that's touch and go terrain. I'm not sure how one would position after Tuesday. Probably depends on how Tuesday goes, to position for Wednesday.

Agreed. NW Ohio/rural SE Michigan and NE Indiana is very similar to Oklahoma, especially NW Ohio

43 minutes ago, Powerball said:

 

Not surprised.

Looking at the SPC mesoanalysis as well as the latest HRRR depicted sounding, the cap is already all but gone in FWD (with dews pooling into the low 70s). At this point, it's just the lack of a meaningful trigger mechanism that's holding development back (for now) with the main shortwave still way back in CO.

Still some CIN in the mid levels. What an impressive clash of air masses, you have a dryline featuring dews in the 20's running into a near tropical airmass with dews into the 70's. The LCL's are absolutely ground scraping, especially into East OK/KS at the moment. This evening certainly has a chance to be historic

Impressed at the strength of the jet max on the latest models. I don't blame the SPC going with a High risk here, any discrete cells should be able to cover a lot of ground today and put down some prolific tornadoes. With the LCL's projected to be where they are, I wouldn't be shocked to see some nice videos of wedge twisters today. Can't sleep on the damaging wind risk as well, that's going to be a very potent line once everything congeals 

This might be the single most violent motion I’ve ever seen documented. 

Maybe one of the more reckless, but no. IMO the Phil Campbell, AL tornado takes the cake for me

My thoughts too... what a crazy couple weeks this has become.

Sheesh that cell is trying so hard in Topeka

So are we gonna talk about those storms in SW OK? They already had at least 1 confirmed tornado.
 

The environment looks dangerous around OKC. Unreal it’s under a MARGINAL risk, showing no inhibition with extremely high instability and much better LCLs

new tornado warning next to Topeka

If that thing tightens up in the next 10 minutes then we’ve got a situation here. Quite a bit of instability and helicity to work with. Condensation level is a little high north of OK though

Not a bad storm reports day at all, definitely warranted the slight risk. Shocked to see some of the damage reports on US-127, it did not seem like the line was that strong at the time it went through there

Not much of an event here in the Toledo area. Looks like the LCL put a bit of a lid on things, instability and shear weren't enough to drop anything truly severe

12 minutes ago, largetornado said:

There is a dry slot right out in front of these storms. Wonder how much that plays into it. Nothing to the east or south of existing storms has been able  to sustain

NW Ohio has a much better environment. LCL's likely need to come down a few hundred meters though

Might just need a little more humidity for this to really get going. The atmosphere is solid at the moment, I'm shocked nothing is really taking off