Isotherm

Time to start tracking the 90 degree days.    Will post a summer thread to track any heat as well.

 

 

This year Im going a bit above avg and on par with last year with  1982/2002/2006/1986 the strongest analogs

 

EWR: 23

NYC: 16

LGA: 20

JFK: 11

Tony, this will be my call for 90F days:

Going with an average of the 1986/1957/2004/1994 90F day analogs.

NYC: 13

LGA: 15

EWR: 19

JFK: 8

Slightly below average season 90F wise. Think we'll see a lot of elevated night time lows again with countless days in the 85-90 degree range.

since 1941 NYC has seen 88 degrees a few times...One as late as the 19th in 1979 after the earliest snowfall on record...The most 80 degree days in October is eight set in 1954...

1954...8

1963...7

1946...6

1990...6

1931...5

1949...5

1961...5

1968...5

1995...5

2007...5

Yeah 2007 was very warm - green leaves until early November.

Looks like the 90s are in the coffin. I'm finishing with 16 days here, basically normal.

Here's the chart FWIW. The UK's warming looks pretty pronounced compared to the surrounding ocean and much of the rest of the NH. It's also interesting to me that Europe and central Asia warmed faster than the arctic or even norther Asia. Almost like a stripe of aerosols had been lessened blowing across the continent. Usually it seems like the fastest warming is a bit farther north than that.

I always get a kick out of images like the above. You're taking the period 1990-2000s and comparing it to the notorious cold cycle -PDO/-AMO of the 1950-1970, thereby skewing the anomalies much warmer than they should be. The comparison time frame should have more years inclusive of a warm cycle (or at least partially - maybe 1950 to 1990) if one is looking to achieve accurate anomalies, but that is not the case.

We've been over this before in other threads, but I think most people fall into the following categories (NOTE: there are more than two!):

 

1. Extreme alarmist - AGW is absolutely going to be catastrophic, if mankind doesn't act now, civilization as we know it is over, the IPCC is way too conservative, any and all extreme weather events can probably be pinned on AGW

 

2. Alarmist - AGW is a very real and present danger, always looking for a way to connect AGW to natural disasters, favors the higher end IPCC estimates, downplays other factors that might be playing a role in things like Arctic sea ice

 

3. Middle of the roader - Believes that AGW is definitely real and probably poses significant risks, favors middle or lower end IPCC estimates, not convinced AGW will be catastrophic, looks for other factors besides just AGW at play in climate/weather trends

 

4. Skeptic - Thinks that AGW probably exists on some level but is skeptical that it is significant or poses any risk, places much more emphasis on natural factors, believes the IPCC is mostly out to lunch

 

5. Denier - Believes only in natural climate change, AGW is a hoax

 

 

I would say 90% of the people on this forum fall somewhere between #2 and #4.

I have a different categorization and think you can create more groups.

Extreme alarmist: 100% human induced

Alarmist: > 75% human induced, < 25% natural

Denier: 100% Natural

Skeptic: > 75% natural, < 25% human induced

Middle of the road can be broken down IMO.

High end Middle of the roader: 25-50% naturally induced, 50-75% human induced

Central Middle of roader: Around a 50/50 split for natural and human factors

Low end Middle of roader: 25-50% human induced, 50-75% naturally induced

So 7 categories total.

Day 3 of 90F+ here.

 

Most sites fairly close thus far. NYC pencils in 3 consecutive 90s. We'll see if they keep neck and neck with EWR this year.

 

I'm thinking an average summer temp wise, my guess for 90F days would be the following.

 

NYC: 15

EWR: 22

LGA: 19

JFK: 11

 

IMBY I'll go 17, which would be lower than the past 3 summers.

A couple days too high on JFK, couple too low for EWR and LGA, NYC very close.

For my backyard I'm at 16, so I'll need 1 more to hit my call dead on. Not bad if I say so myself (somebody's gotta do the patting). I know Sacrus made a very good call for NYC and EWR as well.

Day 16 for me yesterday, and I'd wager probably the last until next year. So a finish right around normal for 90F days.

NYC's pretty much been on par with EWR and LGA highs recently since the dry period began a few weeks ago.

Like TTN, I'm also stuck at 15. No 90s for August so far. Let's see how long it'll be. I'm pretty confident we'll see at least one or two more days through mid September.

About another 4 weeks of this and it is all downhill thereafter...after 20 August, 95 F and above become pretty hard to reach in the City / 90 F and above in the countryside. 

Peak of averages is this week William. It's all downhill from right now.

Assuming Saturday's 90+, that will make 15 days of 90F for me. High thus far was 96.4 today.

Today was number 9 for me. Could have 7 consecutive, from today through Saturday, which would put me at 15 on the season.

This is the type of regime where EWR and LGA will break away from the pack in terms of 90F days.

I had 3 from 7/5-7/7 and the past two days have been mid/upper 80s. Tomorrow looks like another borderline day.

Yeah looks like a break on mon with clouds and storms, but maybe a few 90s then too.  I think most places had the offiial heatwave end of may / early June ( spring). 

Agreed.

Looks like today blowtorched right to the coast. JFK put up an impressive 93.

Also hit 93.2F here. 84.0 right now! We'll see how high we can keep temps tonight. Pool's at 87 now with these warm minima.

First official heat wave of the summer for most will be 7/5-7/7.

I've got a feeling (that tonight's going to be a good night) Central Park will be pulling some 89F highs in the next several days given the enormous amount of rain lately. We may see a few days where EWR tops out at 92-93F and NYC is 89F. Going to be close.

Eeesh, TEB is ridiculous; starting to become the new EWR, hitting 90F with such ease. I hit 86F early on then fell into the low/mid 80s by late afternoon.

I hate when I'm this close and don't make it.

89.4F so far today. All I needed was 0.1F more for the official heat wave. 91 Monday, 91 yesterday. I was 87 Sunday.

the 90 degree day streak is over for now but the 70 degree minimum streak is at four...My AC is still on...If and when it gets down into the 60's I shut it off...a 70 degree and above night is as uncomfortable as a 90+ day...or 85 with humidity...The list of days with minimums 70 degrees or higher...longest streak min 70 or higher...2005 had 60 nights 70 or above...1962 had only eight..2013 has seven so far with a streak of four...

1950..........13............5

1951..........23............7

1952..........38..........12

1953..........34..........10

1954..........18............5

1955..........45..........13

1956..........20............5

1957..........31............5

1958..........26............4

1959..........46..........10

1960..........20............5

1961..........42............9

1962............8............2

1963..........14............5

1964..........19............4

1965..........17............4

1966..........40..........11

1967..........17............5

1968..........29............6

1969..........33............6

1970..........37..........10

1971..........45............9

1972..........30..........15

1973..........37..........11

1974..........26............3

1975..........23..........12

1976..........24............4

1977..........37............9

1978..........31..........13

1979..........42..........17

1980..........52..........22

1981..........39............8

1982..........30..........12

1983..........45..........13

1984..........40..........16

1985..........34............6

1986..........31............4

1987..........32............7

1988..........42..........21

1989..........28............5

1990..........32............8

1991..........31............7

1992..........14............4

1993..........35..........10

1994..........35............9

1995..........39..........18

1996..........22............5

1997..........27............8

1998..........39..........11

1999..........45..........13

2000..........22............4

2001..........30............9

2002..........43............9

2003..........33..........15

2004..........28............6

2005..........60..........14

2006..........41..........15

2007..........35............8

2008..........35............8

2009..........18............5

2010..........54..........22

2011..........40............9

2012..........47..........10

2013..........07............4 as of 6/26

1876..........46..........14

1906..........61..........17

1908..........54..........16

Wow Unc, you're tough with that A/C. If I followed your > 70F minimum policy, I'd only turn on the A/C about a week a year.

Looks like today broke the streak

 

Astoria 87

LGA 87

Central park 89

Newark 87

Atlantic city 83

I see a maximum of 85F in the park.

91 here, probably would've made 92 if not for the anvil clouds.

Day 3 of 90F+ here.

Most sites fairly close thus far. NYC pencils in 3 consecutive 90s. We'll see if they keep neck and neck with EWR this year.

I'm thinking an average summer temp wise, my guess for 90F days would be the following.

NYC: 15

EWR: 22

LGA: 19

JFK: 11

IMBY I'll go 17, which would be lower than the past 3 summers.

Here's our calls from back in May Tony. I was close but you darn near nailed it. Props for those numbers. I thought I would've had NYC on the dot but this week messed it up by a couple.

revving up for the summer. I believe we'll tack on some 90 (+) in May (maybe not in NYC).

Call for summer

EWR: 30

NYC: 20

My guess would be very similar Tony. But just to make it interesting, I'll go:

EWR: 26

NYC: 17

I suspect we'll have numerous mid/upper 80s and very humid days throughout the summer, probably a lot of near misses for many. Those type of borderline 85-90 days are when Newark can really pull away from the pack so to speak, in terms of 90F days. As I said before, I think overall the high humidity and elevated night time minima will be more impressive than big day time heat this summer

That New Brunswick number is also very impressive in comparison to surrounding towns. I've got 21 days, just 15 miles or so SE of NB.

Although urban areas of NE Jersey do in fact average over 20 days a year of temps over 90 F, I'd venture that from a geographic perspective (not necessarily where most of the people live)...most of the northern third of the state above the 500 foot elevation contour averages no more than say 12 days or so of 90 F + heat.

Agreed, especially at our latitude, where we have plenty of borderline 90F days, a mere 500ft elevation change can make a big difference.

For example, Allentown PA averages 16 days, at an elevation of 390ft. Pittsburgh PA, at about the same latitude as CNJ but an elevation of 1200ft, averages 8 90F days. So I'd say that folks at 700-800ft elevation in the hills of NNJ likely average around 12 days as you said. 500ft probably around 14. The difference is pretty significant w/ a 500-1000ft increase at this latitude.

IMBY, I only hit 84.4F today with clouds from 12pm onward. 21 days of 90F thus far; we'll see what tomorrow can do. Looks like many close-calls in the near future. No extreme heat on the horizon, continued muggy and stormy.

Made it to 989 here.

The spread between you and I continues to grow exponentially...

21 days of 90 here.

Yeah, I would say most are averaging around 18-23 days of 90F so far, only the hottest places are approaching 30. I'm at 20 here in CNJ. PHL I don't count as our area, and EWR is the only NYC station above 25 right now. When taking NYC, LI, SW CT, NNJ, S NY, and CNJ into account, we're probably around 20 days, with the coolest locations close to 10 and the hottest near 30.