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Posts posted by paweather
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5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:
18z Canadian HRDPS a little better. Top link is snow qpf and bottom link shows it's still snowing end of run.
Liking it!
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ICON about the same as the NAM. Looks like 2-3"
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CTP:
Biggest challenge with the forecast today is the digging trough pressing down from the Upper Great Lakes Thursday night and Friday. The forecast is very consistent from run to run, and gives high confidence in a widespread (plowable) snowfall for the entire area. Did bump PoPs to 100s and SF numbers up just a little based on an upward trend in the SLRs and ensemble member trends. Even though it will be falling during the daylight hrs, it is a cold airmass and dewpoints start out pretty low. The SLRs should be higher than climo (12-14:1) and may be closer to 20:1 in the NW third of the area. We`re about 70% confident in the eventual need for an advy for almost all, if not all, of the CWA for late Thursday night and Friday. The place with the potential for the highest snowfall totals is going to be the Laurels, especially when lumping the snow which will occur after the main slug of forcing and broadest area of snow passes and upslope snow kicks in Fri night. Therefore, we`ve posted a winter storm watch for the Laurels for that time frame. However, we`d like to avoid some confusion and allow confidence to get to 80% before posting an advisory for the bulk of the area for Friday. The confusion may come for those who are going to get some snow later tonight (Wed PM) into Thurs. The certainty in SF numbers is lowest in the Ridge and Valley region (between UNV-MDT-IPT). Another shift or so with similar numbers should help boost confidence. With plenty of clouds around Thurs night and Fri, we`ll likely see a decreased diurnal swing. Mins in the 15-25F range are good, and everyone should hold in the 20s on Friday. One or two spots in the SErn valleys could get over 30F
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JB still thinking magic of 4-8" with no phase.
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Just now, mitchnick said:
3k Nam looks like the srefs past 2 runs.
Yep 2-3" not bad.
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3K looks about the same
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Looks like a 10am to 7pm event.
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3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:
Just look at MDT's numbers for the month and they are STILL 5 AN...crazy. With the warm spell progged next week, the final numbers are going to be pretty ugly.
Well we got a good bit of winter out of it whatever they are counting and more to come.
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Looks like 2-3" Advisory snow:
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JB forecasting a President Day Blizzard lol.
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Pretty Long duration of light snow event coming...Dawn to Dusk type.
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0z NAM good run
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1 minute ago, canderson said:
It hasn’t been this pretty in so many years.
Agree it has been a beautiful landscape day.
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10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:
Yeah. Just another disappointment. Lol
Actually, I'm fine with it. It covered the grass, looks beautiful, and didn't interfere with travel. Plus, we've got Friday, then shut the blinds until the last days of January or start of February. Seems like that's when the cold returns after the warmup that starts Monday.
I was going to say we get the typical January Thaw next week and then back to Winter
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4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:
Glad to see everyone cashed in on the storm. Looks like 3-5” was very common. Let’s smack another on Friday!
Good call!
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3" very light snow falling, Beautiful Landscape!
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Central PA Winter 23/24
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Posted
Man it looks good may not be want we want but 2-4” state wide