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paweather

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Posts posted by paweather

  1. 10 minutes ago, TimB said:

    I appreciate what you’re trying to point out here, but data from actual official climate sites is significantly less valuable than data from a poorly sited weather station in the backyard of a Chester County home.

    I thought you said you were "out of here" now leave. 

  2. 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

    None of the 18z runs strike me as moving toward the Euro unfortunately.  I was hoping to see that be the case. That said, 18z GGEM did come in slightly better with the slp a bit stronger than its 12z run, but that's likely inconsequential. 

    That means the Euro is right! :D

  3. 26 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

    MU "Kenny" Elliott only said his block buster snow forecast for Feb is in trouble.  He really only said the trouble is through mid-Feb.  Sounds a lot like some other posters so not super extreme even if a pivot back.

     

    image.png.8b8a90aaefdb5f3c1df2db76b6fe731e.png

    He says he is throwing in the towel sounds like he is giving up on his forecast.

  4. 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

    What I  don't get is why the change in the forecast today. I check every model's MJO forecast every day. They have not suddenly changed. If anything, they have moved the MJO wave faster toward the good phases in the last week than progged, which is good for us. But definitely the phase 7 forecast has been in the cards for over a week. Strange. I  think he just got a look at the 12z ensembles and just didn't say it.

    I guess he lives on "hunches" and went with it today. There is no way someone can look at February and say it is going to go in this direction. He knows that but he is living with his forecast and changing it. 

  5. 17 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

    my god, a bunch of debbie downers Its not even the end of january and you guys are calling for the end of winter.  Many of you thought the same thing at the end of Dec and now look at us- nearly a foot of snow in the past two weeks. Stop hugging the ensemble models for a biggie. It is not coming.  We will be in a relaxed pattern for the next two weeks, then the front door will be kicked in near of just after Valentines Day. Patience is virtue. The pattern we are in is very typical of a moderate El Nino year.  SECS usually occur near Presidents Day to St Patricks Day in this pattern. I have seen it over and over for 40 years. 

    I was thinking Feb 10th on will be very good for us with a favorable pattern. 

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