paweather

Previous runs but a good thump. And Likely good back end thump.

Unbelievable same evolution on the GFS.

Blizz get on the phone with our local stations.

Exactly. Just comment on it or some phrase he could say instead of downplaying.

I guess they don't look at the models other than there own. ICON. Again very consistent.

Good for them use to love Joe Calhoun. I miss Matt Moore.

Best post from PSU tonight: 1996 tucked 1/25/2000 tucked 2/12/2006 tucked Feb 6 2010 Tucked Feb 11 2010 tucked Feb 13 2014 Tucked 2016 Tucked Almost every one of our best snowstorms of the last 30 years was tucked in right against the Delmarva coast. The only exceptions were Dec 2009 and Feb 2003. 2009 managed that because it was a very amplified stj wave out of the gulf with an amazing moisture fetch that was 985mb over eastern NC It also had an inverted trough into WV so that combo meant an incredibly expansive heavy precip shield to the northwest of the track. It tracked NE from the outer banks. Frankly a less intense and less juiced up STJ system with that track likely doesn’t provide big totals in the NW 1/3 of our region normally. That track would usually fringe places like Winchester or Hagerstown or Frederick. PD2 was a west to east STJ wave overrunning an Arctic high. The coastal was weak sauce here and had very little contribution to that event. But the rule on an HECS here is we want the low tucked into the Delmarva coast.

I'm not saying inciting panic at all still early. Just do his Job and tell the truth. Nothing is set in stone but to downplay it right now he is doing the opposite of good weather media reporting. We know more than him.

Any local weather person to downplaying event right now it just wrong. It may end up going the wrong way and he would be right but every model shows a strong signal of a significant winter storm event.

Is this the EE rule for the NAM/EURO? or maybe the weekend rule.

Incoming 0z NAM:

I'm staying up tonight. At least for how long I can. Tom Russell. LOL.

Not total shit but again in a different camp. Give us more snow then last year alone.

18z still shows a strong backend thump as well.

I competition of 2 model camps even though we still get a good thump with the Primary. GFS and EURO/CMC are so different.

18z ICON was pretty good, OK GFS let's not disappoint.

No doubt.

HAHA. Well that was a tough one this year.

We are closing in on the NAM'S RANGE lol. Not quite but we have the 84hr look to enjoy.

This!

I agree this is going to be a nail biter right up to when it starts. I feel like we are going to have a swing down on the models for maybe one run or so. But the good news is if we can get a good initial thump from the Primary and the transfer doesn't go well we still win.

Yeah EURO/CMC dies the primary early and transfers. Whereas the GFS keeps the Primary alive longer where you would have a better shot to up those totals.

As others said good to see you back.

MA is crashing the board.

And still not done: