NWS starting to Hype it up.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Cold air will be with us into the weekend. Low temps will be in
the single digits to near 0 in the northern tier both Sat and
Sun morning, especially if the boundary layer decouples and
winds go calm. If winds to not decrease, it will still feel cold
with wind chills likely below 0 across the northern tier.
The next system to watch will come in on Sunday, likely
beginning as all snow CWA-wide. The first batch of precip would
be associated with WAA and isentropic ascent as moisture is
advected toward a 1032mb high over northeastern North America.
Models do diverge a bit on how quickly a secondary low will
develop, and how close that low will be to the coastline. The
strength and placement of fgen/deformation bands on the NW side
of this developing low will depend largely on the secondary low
track and intensity.
Nevertheless, model guidance has come into better agreement
with a winter storm dropping plowable snow across much of
central PA. NBM probabilistic snow guidance is showing a 50%
chance of 8+ inches of snow over a 36-48 period, with a local
maximum over south central PA. Wintry mix may move into the
southern tier, limiting snow totals across the southeast as
warmer air and/or a dry slot moves in aloft.
We will continue to ramp up messaging for this storm as long as
models continue to trend toward a significant storm. The storm
is still several days out and beyond hour 84 so we do not yet
have QPF grids or an official snow map through the duration of
the storm. Continue to monitor for updates.
