Yep you were on it with the concerns, no doubt. And I am fearing that third point could very well happen now. At least we have wind and clouds. :-) Let's hope HH runs go to your point 2.
Definitely 12z weakening and further north. And the Primary on the GFS is over Bradford. As much confidence I had with Monday and Tuesday storm I lost it. And the later week storm looks like a DC special.