paweather

NWS starting to Hype it up. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Cold air will be with us into the weekend. Low temps will be in the single digits to near 0 in the northern tier both Sat and Sun morning, especially if the boundary layer decouples and winds go calm. If winds to not decrease, it will still feel cold with wind chills likely below 0 across the northern tier. The next system to watch will come in on Sunday, likely beginning as all snow CWA-wide. The first batch of precip would be associated with WAA and isentropic ascent as moisture is advected toward a 1032mb high over northeastern North America. Models do diverge a bit on how quickly a secondary low will develop, and how close that low will be to the coastline. The strength and placement of fgen/deformation bands on the NW side of this developing low will depend largely on the secondary low track and intensity. Nevertheless, model guidance has come into better agreement with a winter storm dropping plowable snow across much of central PA. NBM probabilistic snow guidance is showing a 50% chance of 8+ inches of snow over a 36-48 period, with a local maximum over south central PA. Wintry mix may move into the southern tier, limiting snow totals across the southeast as warmer air and/or a dry slot moves in aloft. We will continue to ramp up messaging for this storm as long as models continue to trend toward a significant storm. The storm is still several days out and beyond hour 84 so we do not yet have QPF grids or an official snow map through the duration of the storm. Continue to monitor for updates.

still snowing after 120. LOL.

I think so. I would have liked to see more of the front end thump but it will change at 0z anyways.

Anybody have the NAM @ 87

I will say at 84 it comes back with the coastal, just the Primary is all VA.

VA SPECIAL!

It is the NAM at that range! Must make an excuse.

WOW, don't look at the NAM.

it all comes down the the coastal between 6 or 16. We know the Primary will give us a good thump we will know Sunday night whether it will be a MECS, HECS, or BECS.

I like Bubbler 12-18" better! LOL...No, but the models have been pretty consistent on the overall evolution of the storm they are just now trying to figure out the details.

Yeah I knew with all the great trends we were having we may see some off trends as seems to always be the case. But even the off trends today didn't result in failure. EURO/GFS and even CMC was good if not decent. They have the general idea of what is going to happen now it comes down to placement of the transfer and where it goes.

Time for HH. But whatever happens and it could be a fail it is still much better than last year. Win or lose we are tracking this year. I have to start playing with my Psychology in me. LOL.

Yep Good luck Voyager. Safe travels.

Miller B! Never gonna know until it starts. I still like where we are.

When is our time to get NAM'd. LOL.

I think the main concern now is suppression versus North, and yes I sound like PSU. Bu the trends today even the OP runs for the most part have been good, the ENS not so good.

Yep. There is nothing wrong with the EURO.

EURO is fine, Canderson.

126 still snowing! OK. I feel better again after the UK.

Agreed but again the general idea of the GFS today from panel 102 to 114 it just stalls out. *Sorry even 120 now on the EURO this is a massive hit.

It is tucked in at 102!

7AM Sunday Light Snow.

Where's Marcus?

After such a good GFS, please do not fail EURO.

It did. I thought the CMC shifted south a bit and it did. Let's keep the EURO train on our tracks now.