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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Blog Entries posted by USCAPEWEATHERAF

  2. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next few weeks of Mid to late October 2020 will feature some volatile temperature changes across the northern tier of the CONUS.  It has become quite clear, models are reacting to a colder pattern regime showing up in central Canada and the Arctic.  The Arctic is storing up very intense cold arctic air masses.  As the La Nina continues its reign in the overall oceanic pattern across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the trends towards this pattern regime across the North American Pattern will result in a progressive northern branch of the jet stream with frequent cold fronts moving in from Canada and the Great Lakes.  With each progression, and determining what the teleconnections favor, frequent clippers will be the main storm type for a majority of the 2020-2021 winter.  Whether these systems blow up along the East Coast and Gulf Stream will be determined as I mentioned above, the teleconnections and most appreciably the North American Pacific Pattern (PNA) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which is determined by the presence and pressure pattern of the Icelandic Low Pressure and Greenland Ridge pressure pattern.  Also, the pattern evolving is favoring a transitional period in the pattern across the North and west hemispheres.  Snow is showing up on the models across the Great Lakes in the next 7 days, stay tuned!
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The last three weeks of weather across Southern New England, especially considering Cape and the Islands as been so boring it has felt like early Spring.  However, models are beginning to show a better consensus of an impactful nor'easter tracking east of the 40N/70W benchmark in the day 4 1/2 to 6 period and there are legit signs it could be an extremely impactful storm.  What the impacts are exactly won't be known until Thursday at the latest.  We have time to figure out a few issues.  Until then, just be weary of the potential, while the weather takes care of the rest.
  6. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest 6z NAM run comes in hot with over a foot of snow for Chatham in about a 12 t0 18 hour period from 10z Saturday, February 1st to around 00 FEB 2nd or 7pm EST Saturday night.  The latest run of the NAM intensifies the shortwave, as a stronger negative tilt occurs as it approaches the NC coastline, around 35N: 75W.  This run also brings the surface low from the central GOM to the interior of SC and NC before it reaches the location of 35N: 75W.  Then the low tracks Northeastward towards the 40N:70W benchmark location which favors a heavy snow threat for Cape Cod and the Islands.  Even the HIRES NAM or 3KM Resolution NAM brings the surface low closer and throws over .3" of Liquid over CHH as the run does not go beyond 60 hours.  However, the storm will start within 48 hours of the 12z runs this late morning into the early afternoon.  Also water vapor imagery suggests that the northern stream is digging more southward in last few frames than what the recent 00z and 06z guidance even suggests.  We could see a sea/saw effect continue for the next day and then trends could be west towards 24 hours and closer to the onset of the precipitation.  For a bigger and more severe event, like talking blizzard potential, we need a stronger phase, a colder scenario and a much stronger surface low passing at the benchmark or just about 24 miles west of it.
  7. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    This morning, I am going to share with you why a snow event is possible and not yet certain....
    Why it is possible...
    NAO is in transition still positive but diving towards neutral slowing duration of the precipitation and storm's movement based upon phasing and capture potential at H5
    PNA/EPO coupled ridging over the western CONUS could lead to an earlier phase potential as the northern stream disturbance is shoved southward across the Midwest and OH Valley regions allowing a cold infusion of air before the storm reaches our latitude.
    -AO transition, as the EPO/PNA ridge builds poleward and allows the northern stream to dig southward across the central US, this also builds into the western Arctic Circle and disrupts the Polar Vortex and the +AO domain and turns towards a -AO domain allowing the arctic jet to become involved in the weather next week producing another chance at a storm or two
    Again questions remain in the details and eventual A)/NAO domains, we will get help with that in the next 24 hours.
  8. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Long term pattern is shaping up to bring a parade of massive coastal super storms, at least the potential.  A strong combination of a -NAO/-EPO/-AO/+PNA pattern is shaping up around Day 8 onward.  Right now nothing is ever set in stone, but the potential exists for a weekend snow threat next weekend first weekend of February 2/3rd or Super Bowl Bomb party once again, like the Blizzards of the past.  However, the Patriots will not be participants for the first time in four years.  Enough with the sad news, the weather pattern evolving is enough to be satisfied for a temporary rain event this weekend.  With the lack of true arctic air in place, we should be glad this storm is in land runner type with rain into Central New England.  Otherwise, a mixed precip event would be quite devastating.  However, I am confident in a storm happening next weekend, and perhaps a snow threat midweek this upcoming week.  Still a ways to go...
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, chaos in the pattern will lead to superstorm potential.  The shortwave nature of the pattern on the 12z and 18z runs of the 1-23-2020 cycle of the GFS operational run suggests a massive threat exists in the pattern for New England extreme weather events.  The chaos involved in the pattern from troughs to ridges in a short wave pattern suggests too many eggs in the basket and no one will have an idea of the pattern for another six to seven maybe even eight days from today.  I could take the morning of the first flakes before we have an idea of the track of the storm.  Stay tuned!
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    **signal for a decent moderate snow event is increasing at least for the interior portions of SE MA and the rest of SNE.  Cape Cod and the immediate coast is still in question.**
    A large long wave troughing pattern is developing in the next 48 hours as a major piece of energy amplifies the trough as it enters the eastern US.  Still questions to intensity, track of parent system and lack of cold air source.  I will keep you abreast of the situation at hand.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Have a happy New Year's eve of celebration and remembering our past year and last decade of greatness and welcome in a New Year and a new Decade of fun, love, health and wealth to everyone and their family.  Love you all.  Hope to a snowy winter ahead.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Yes, the western part of Marquette county, MI could see snowfall amounts of over 24" and some numbers as high as 40" of snow in the next 72 hours will likely fall over the region.  A major blizzard combined with an arctic air outbreak of northeasterly winds over Lake Superior could combine to produce 3 feet or more of snow.  This is a major snow event for this time of year.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today we will experience extreme weather at its finest.  Severe flash freeze is setting up to enter the region as soon as later this morning, when temperatures sweep west to east with a 20-30F temperature change in the next 18-20 hours.  It will happen suddenly with the change of the winds vector.  AS the warm balmy 50+ degree southwesterly winds will change to a violent northwest cold dry bone chilling cold arctic air howling over 30mph.  Rain will change to snow and temps will bottom out in the lower 20s.  BRRRR!!!!!!!!!Current MESO OBS
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    While models decide their differences in the next day or so with the incoming precipitation threats, the one thing the pattern is adjusting to show is the appearance of arctic air masses invading the Northern 2/3rds of the CONUS.  While large sustained +PNA is present, we will be getting some major league arctic air invading our region and the eastern 1/3rd of the country.  While CA and the SW US bakes in record heat and fire weather, the MS Valley eastward will be experiencing the first cold winter snap of the fall season.  While October snowfall wasn't the case this season, it appears we will not escape November without a few chances of snow.  With such an arctic air mass in charge the coming weeks, we will see record highs and lows fall.  Right now, get the winter gear in order, we will need it.
  16. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    It is becoming increasingly clear, that the models are showing more confidence in an interior New England, mainly northwestern New England snowfall is going to happen later Thursday into Friday morning.  The quick nature of the system, what the weather world calls a progressive storm, is something that won't be spectacular by any stretch of the imagination, but could have some moderate travel impacts where it does indeed snow and accumulate.  The one thing that is blatantly obvious in the weather pattern developing now through November, is that there will be some amazingly cold air masses invading the region.  These air masses are driven by the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere over North America that will be originating from the Polar regions, arctic in appearance.  There are some very cold temperatures being printed out by the models, especially the GFS for Saturday this weekend and Tuesday of next week, indeed for CHH climate numbers, we could be as much as 10 to 20 F below normal both days.  Low temperatures in those two days could be in the upper 20s with northeasterly winds aiding to the presence of ocean effect showers.  Precipitation type unknown at this point and it is over 7 days away.  Time will tell if CHH gets their first measurable snow then or not.  For now, areas northwest of Worcester, MA will see some accumulating snowfall and I don't know how much just yet.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today, this morning in New England, Monday is a rather slow, unwelcoming day.  Most New England Patriots fans are waking to an early sun rise, with the knowledge that their New England Patriots took a big loss on the chin from the Baltimore Ravens before their week 10 bye.  With the knowledge that there are weaknesses on the team's defense and offense, we pay attention to the weather scene the next two weeks before another game is played against the Philadelphia Eagles.  I awake this Monday morning, knowing that a potential winter storm is lurking in the day four window, and according to the 00z EURO run this morning, there might be a legit snow to the coast by day 9.  However, that is both beside the point.  Today, Monday, November 4th, 2019 is only four days away from a modeled interior snowstorm for New England.  Possibility becomes likely when models begin to agree on the storm in the 3 1/2 day window and confidence begins to increase substantially with the three major global models in relative agreement, the EURO, GFS and UKMET models have the same event in the same location, with similar results.  We should wait another 36 hours before we are more confident in any model and have the short range ensembles and the short range HI resolution guidance in the range necessary for a high confidence forecast.  For now, the November 8th modeled event is just that, a potential and nothing more or less.  Residents southeast of the I95 corridor in RI and SE MA should not worry too much about accumulating snowfall, for the most part if it snows at all it should melt.  The sun angle, while getting lower, is not there yet, and the ground is too warm as well as the ocean to the northeast while cooling substantially faster than last year at this time, we are still in the low to mid 50s off the South Shore of Boston to Nantucket.  The only shot is a cold screaming north wind that carries the very cold arctic air mass over the warmer waters.  Right now, nothing supports snow in the area, Cape Cod residents who love snow, we need to wait.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    In less than 24 hours, the Patriots are scheduled to play the Baltimore Ravens.  The current weather forecast is quite pleasant for Baltimore area.  Temperature expected to be in the mid-40s throughout the game, dew points in the lower 30s, with relative humidity in the dry zone of around 48 %.  No precipitation is expected as there are no weather systems in the area for the game tomorrow.  Frost could build throughout the game across grassy areas and colder surfaces.  Winds should be a non-factor, as they will be variable and light nothing over 10 knots.  I expect a rather lower scoring game, but Patriots come out covering, over 10 point win.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Snow from a potential coastal storm is looking like a distinct potential, nothing serious or imminent, just a potential.  Given the long term nature of the snow event possibility and given how volatile models can be run to run, we need to wait to see some resemblance of consistency start to mount up in the coming days.  We just aren't there yet.  Cold is coming and perhaps arctic in origin.  That is as much a given as anything right now.  Have fun this weekend, enjoy in the climate weather, near average to slightly below average with dry conditions.  We will know when something decent is coming in the 3 day range.
  21. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest GFS and model consensus showing signs that winter is ready to make a return.  Today will begin the cold pouring into the eastern CONUS.  BY the end of the seven day forecast, next Friday, a coastal system is showing up on the models.  However, I am not sold on this potential at this time.  There is a lot of disagreement on the potential location and track and intensity of said storm.  We will know more by the end of the weekend into the Monday timeframe of next week.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Multiple model consensus suggests that the current evolving pattern for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean basin wide is favoring neutral-ENSO pattern.  CPC suggests there is a more than 50/50 chance of a neutral ENSO persisting until Spring months of 2020.  This should favor a strong winter favoring above normal snowfall for eastern to central New England with a below average temperature climate.  Long range models suggest the pattern evolving this weekend will lead to a prolonged cold air mass.  More will become present as we head into the first week of November.
  24. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The next four days present an unique challenge for weather forecasters.  Models present a blocked upper-level pattern which ensues at the surface as well.  A large ridge in Atlantic Canada will keep the coastal low pressure blocked at the surface and rather stalls or meanders off the coast near the New England storm benchmark location or 40N:70W.  Winds will increase after 12z tomorrow into 12z Friday, they should peak between 55-70mph winds at the coastline between 12z Thursday and 12z Friday.  Heavy rainfall over 5" should be a common number when this storm exits Saturday night/Sunday morning.  Be prepared for a raw few days from I-95 corridor eastward will be the main region impacted from eastern CT to Eastern ME.
  25. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest guidance and weather data suggests the rain that was impacting the region this morning is out of the way now, but cloud cover should stay in control for most of the morning into the early afternoon, before some clearing occurs as a strong Canadian High builds in from the northwest.  Tomorrow looks dry and cool, with highs in the lower to middle 50s and lows near 45F.  Sunday looks similar with perhaps a stronger and warmer return flow as the high shifts to the east with a rather nice rebound temp wise into the upper 50s and lower 60s and lows again in the mid to upper 40s.  Frost is possible the next few days across the interior of New England and the mountains of the area.  Monday will feature a warmer day than the weekend as a front approaches from western NY.  Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s maybe some locations nearing the lower to mid 70s perhaps for the last time until March, unless a period of Indian Summer reaches that mark again this winter season.  Perhaps the next time we see temperatures in the mid 70s will be late April early May 2020.  Monday will feature warm temps, but the return of high altitude cirrus clouds and then thickening clouds towards sunset and temps lowering no more than 60F in the overnight hours before the cold front passes through late Tuesday morning.  Temperatures will peak in the morning and then fall dramatically throughout the day into the lower 40s into Wednesday morning.  Wednesday through Friday appear to be the middle 50s for highs and lower to middle 40s for lows until the weekend features potential for another cold front that will bring rain showers and colder air for the weekend into the early week.  Stay Tuned!  We will likely see subtle changes in the coming days to the ten day forecast.
     - JWN Productions!
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