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USCAPEWEATHERAF

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  3. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today, I have been sifting through the data and the guidance as of the 00z runs 10/3 and they are showing me the signs towards winter are upon us.  New England weather is rather volatile the further we get from the summer and we get deeper into the season of Fall and then winter.  As the holidays approach we are reminded how lucky we have been to live life as long as we have, and to have people who care about us in this world.  As the holidays approach we are reminded of this constantly.  As winter approaches abruptly and the only way Nature knows how, we get warning signs that the weather machine is ready to change gears and this is what I am seeing on the guidance this morning.  There is rather strong agreement that a clipper will develop a secondary low off the coast of Cape Cod and Nantucket (ACK) as we head into the weekend.  This system will carry a cold air mass on the north side and then northwest side and bring a change of temperatures to the region from the backside winds.  Before that happens, we will experience spotty rain, until you are north of Concord, NH where rain will become more steady and then changeover to snow as one heads into the mountains of northern NH/VT/ME and the mountains of this region in the weekend.  Saturday will be rather raw and spot showers at times, and then Sunday will be quite beautiful and rather chilly compared to what the last few days have given us.  
    Also, another sign of the change in seasons is the rather rapid build-up of cold deep arctic air masses into northern Canada and then into the central and southern Canadian Prairies.  This will begin to dive into the northern third of the US, above 40N from MT to ME as we head into the mid-month period and then the end of the month and beyond.  Rather active weather pattern will begin to impact the US as multiple troughs will swing through the northern tier, this is rather common in neutral ENSO patterns.  I will have another update after the 12z EURO if something changes in the guidance.
  4. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Today's update is a short appeal in the overall envelope of winter solutions.  Today's neutral ENSO conditions update supports an average to slightly above average snowfall for all of New England.  Again we should have a much better handle towards the first several weeks of November on what the ENSO pattern should be like.  Eastern and Western New England have equal opportunities for above average snowfall this winter, which is quite normal within strong neutral ENSO phases.
  5. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Right now there is a greater than 55 percent chance of neutral ENSO conditions this winter.  This should favor above normal snowfall across most of central New England, with a tendency towards slightly above average snowfall for eastern New England and less towards normal across the northern and western parts of New England.  Storm tracks should be favored more eastward then last winter, more so from 35N:75W to around 41N:69.5W as an average storm track location.  Coastal plain of New England could see slightly above average to potentially above average snow.  I would say the Outer Cape from CHH to P-town could see around 30-45" of snow, parts of the Cape from CHH west to HYA could see 40-55" and parts of the Cape from HYA westward over 60" of snow.  So these numbers support slightly above to above average snowfall this winter.
  9. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Major Severe Weather Outbreak is underway today over SNE as the first tornado warning has been issued for Middlesex County, MA.  The rest of the region shows increasing potential for intense damaging winds over 70mph, large hail over 1.5" and a few tornadoes.  Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 10 pm tonight.
  10. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Fireworks have begun for Tom Brady and his list of WR weapons on the outside.  With Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman back yesterday at practice, today the Patriots get tremendous news that Demaryius Thomas has returned to practice after suffering from a horrible Achilles tear injury last season with the Texans.  After signing a one-year deal with the Patriots, Thomas has returned to action and is officially taken off the PUP list.  This adds another veteran weapon on the outside at a size of 6'3" 220lbs or heavier along with Gordon 6'3" too and N'Keal Harry who is the tallest at 6'4" and 230lbs.  That gives them three large bodies, athletic WRs for Brady and the offense.  Along with a deep backfield, the TE position is missing one true TE from being a formidable offense this season.  Barring any further significant injuries, this team has the ceiling of a perfect season repeat.  I believe it is a dumb part of anyone in the prediction business to predict a perfect NFL season, even if the Patriots did it just 12 years ago.  It is possible, about a 12 percent chance.  I am still on track to deliver my predictions officially by September 5th, they should be posted then, but I will work between 29th to the 4th on this process.
  11. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My novel is progressing, we hope it will be finished before November 1st, 2019.  We could get it published as soon as Spring 2020.  Fingers crossed!
    As for my NFL predictions release, that won't come until the first day of NFL games, which is two weeks from Thursday, September 5th.  I will release my thoughts than, stay tuned!
    Another thing, Josh Gordon is dealing with something far greater than substance abuse issues.  Most people who suffer drug or alcohol addiction are trying to mask the inner pain of an emotional loss.  Something either traumatic happened to them in the maturation process growing up, before the age of 30, or the loss of a personal friend or family member in which anger was pushed to the side and not dealt with head-on can cause significant mental health risks, such as depression and illness.  Our minds are so fragile, while also so strong, we still have no idea what over 80 % of the mind does for the human body.  That is amazing.  Josh Gordon I hope pulls through, not because of his tremendous talent that will help the Patriots, but because as a human being, we love success stories, underdogs, people who beat the odds of life and their circumstances to overcome the tragedy they face in life.  I want him to have that story.  A lot of people pull for someone trying to relinquish the demons he is fighting.
  12. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    I don't have the time or drive to do predictions for the next seasons in the NBA and NFL this weekend, with the importance of Red Sox games and the tropical weather heating up as the date for the average first hurricane is AUG 1st, so the climo peak is coming in another 5 to 6 weeks, I will be quite busy with the weather.  I will have the predictions done before September 1st.
  13. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    The 2019 Defending World Series Champion Boston Red Sox are now on pace to score 947 runs this season, eclipsing their totals from the last ten seasons of Red Sox baseball.  They will be second to the 2003 Red Sox with the modern-day record of 966 runs scored the franchise record.  Not even last year's Sox had that many runs scored, and in fact, it would be over 100 runs better.  Last season, even with their amazing 108-54 record, their offense was never this potent, with breakout seasons by Bogaerts and Devers and average seasons by JD and another MVP caliber season by Mookie Betts who could score over 140 runs this season, this would make him the second Red Sox player ever to score that many runs in a single season, second only to the Greatest Hitter of Red Sox history, Mr. Ted Williams.  He actually did it several times.
  15. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    My experiences with extreme weather in the past have been hard to come by.  Living on the outer Cape Cod, our chances at tornadoes and severe thunderstorms.  However, the greatest chance at severe thunderstorms and including supercells occur only during the months of July and August.  Now, why is this important?  During the months of July and August the water temperatures in the ocean around Cape Cod, except to the southeast, have been warming substantially and are way above average for this time of the year, this is leading to temperatures over 75F surrounding Cape and Islands, which allow the soupy presence of dew point air temperatures over 70F on the Cape.  This leads to some presence of instability, especially with a south wind.  Early on the morning of Tuesday, July 23rd, 2019, I woke up several times in the morning around 6 am and 8 am tracking the thunderstorm complex that moved through the Cape and weakened with some light showers passing through.  As the time approached 8:30 a.m. Long Island had several water spouts develop south of the area over the open ocean as velocity couplets were present with radar indicated presence of water spouts.  They were moving towards the ENE at about 30-40mph.  What alerted me to a rather elevated and perhaps higher chance at severe weather, at least chance of damaging winds, was the extreme presence of high wind shear values in all significant levels of the atmosphere.  These levels were SFC-1km, SFC-6km, and SFC to 3km wind shear numbers.  Effective Bulk Shear of 60-65 knots over the Cape stayed there all day long as the front was slow to move southeastward off the coast.  Instability nosed into the area just as the cluster of storms was nearby, which turned into a meso-low influenced supercell that was moving from Falmouth, MA to Harwich, MA and Chatham, MA.  The Supercell and attendant mesocyclone moved through the mid Cape region, after passing north of Martha's Vineyard with gusts over 69mph, Kalmus, MA reached a gust of 90mph as the supercell matured even more and got more intense with the velocity scans showing an intense couplet that got tighter as it reached the Yarmouth, MA region as the radar first indicated a tornado on the ground.  A section of radar technology that was recently developed for tornado confirmation was the correlation coefficient.  This technology can detect debris in the air other than precipitation falling.  This CC radar indicated debris lofted into the air over Yarmouth, which wa likely the Cape Sands Inn roof that was lofted into the air from the touchdown of the first EF-1 tornado that peaked at 110mph over Yarmouth and Dennis, while it lifted back into the Mesocyclone.  Then minutes later the tornado warning was issued for Harwich and most of the lower Outer Cape, where the second tornado touchdown around 12:10 pm or later winds gusted over 110mph in my backyard as the circulation likely passed just over the forest of trees in my backyard.  There were two distinct wind bursts that occurred on my street.  The first wind burst occurred at much weaker state, about 30-40mph winds, this was winds out of the southwest, than the second more intense burst was likely the rear flank downdraft or the backside of the tornado circulation that passed northwest of my house.  These winds did the most damage in the area as they likely gusted over 110mph as we lost a lot of trees and some just snapped in half.  Parts of Harwich Center, MA about a mile down the street, suffered complete devastation.  Road closures, trees on homes, trees snapped completely in half with completely developed matured trees just snapped completely in half.  Brooks Park has a large forest of large healthy trees, it looked like a plane dropped an atomic bomb was released and detonated at 20 feet high off the ground and blew up the area.  Half the trees were completely snapped in half.  The town center area suffered utter tree damage that no one has ever seen before here.  It was chaos.  The emotions were just filled with utter sadness.  Fires engulfing homes, gas leaks and evacuations as homes and streets were deemed uninhabitable.  We had 18 minutes of lead time, my family and I went into the basement for the first in our lives as the winds occurred over our house.  Debris started flying and my family and I headed into the basement.  It was the scariest moment of my life.  Life is starting to get back to normal, we gained power back around 1 pm to 3 pm yesterday afternoon.  Almost a day after the tornado, we thank the local emergency and power officials for a tremendous job done so far.  Thanks for listening and taking the time to read my post.
  18. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Latest forecasts show the development of invest 94L, designated this as such due to the fact it is an area of interest the NHC has designated for a more thorough investigation with models and other observations are allowed to take place.  The designation is assigned a number 90 through 99 and then is recycled through and through.  Since the areas are only investigation numbers, they would rather recycle through the same numbers than confuse everyone about them.  94L is a system about 100 or so miles east of the central Bahamas.  People traveling to the Bahamas, Florida and then the rest of the immediate Southeast US coast, need to watch the potential progress and development if it occurs with this system.  Impacts could be felt in the Bahamas as soon as tomorrow afternoon and along the Florida coast as soon as Tuesday morning.  Please stay safe, that is and shall always remain your one and only priority in these situations as your possessions can be replaced, your life or the life of a loved one cannot.
  19. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Sports update will come after Wednesday this upcoming new work week, I have to watch the latest forecasts for the early week period as a hybrid storm could bring significant impacts to SE New England Monday night into Tuesday night.  Right now models showing a surface low around 1004mb or lower impacting the region with widespread wind and rain issues.  Could become significant if given time over water.
  20. USCAPEWEATHERAF

    Update!

    By USCAPEWEATHERAF,

    I will be working on my predictions for the NFL and NBA upcoming seasons the next few days.  I will have the final products by the end of the weekend.  Thanks!
  22. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    A lot of signs point to a potentially damaging wind event, right now parameters are not as supportive as we want, but models show storm potential as a monster low makes it path across ME into the Gulf of Maine.  Could be quite strong winds in convection and then the backside of the low could deliver very cold air and winds off the ocean.  Also, our prayers go out for Jefferson City, MO residents and everyone who has gone through these tornadoes yesterday and this morning.
  23. USCAPEWEATHERAF
    Hey everyone,
    I am in the workings of creating a creative business that focuses on ideas and making them into stories to tell the world.  I am focused on working on a novel and get that published first.  I have a partner now.  Not official yet, but in the process of working the kinks out.  We are going to make a novel series and perhaps make movies after each novel in the franchise that now has a name, "The Awakening Dawn" series.  Each of the three novels has titles now, they are still working titles, and are subject to change.  'The Awakening Dawn" 9Book one), "From Dawn Until Dusk" (Book Two), "The End of the Awakening" (Book Three).  These novels will continue the story of the main characters, Jack Irving (25 year old hurricane specialist), Abi Acheson/Irving (Jack's fiancee in book one and wife throughout the rest of the story), Michael Reed (Jack's best friend since Kindergarten) and Marie Givens (Mike's girlfriend and wife later on and bosses daughter in book one).  Secondary characters who appear in every novel: Jack's family members: Daniel Irving (Brother), Sarah Irving (sister, unsure her future), Siobhan Irving (Jack's youngest sister), Edith Irving (Jack's mother, dies from pancreatic cancer in book one), William Irving (Jack's father, lives in all three books).  Other characters include Abi's best friend and secretary, USAF Reserve 53rd WRS hurricane hunter pilot Major/Lt. Colonel Brooks Carter and his crew.  And others...
    Next project and potential big-time franchise novel/movie series...
    'The Terroristic Behavior Series"
    This is a story about a duel between a CIA trained assassin turned into terror suspect who terrorizes the US's world interests, many mysteries exist and are unraveled as the story goes on as former terror expert and ghost hunter, FBI special agent Sebastian Jenkins who is recently divorced and has three children.  He is hired by the FBI again or transferred to GHOST PROTOCOL.  He is hunting a person the government of the US considers a ghost.  The story lasts three novels and shows potential to become a big-time movie franchise.  Characters include Carter Avril - ghost, and Sebastian Jenkins Ghosthunter.  Still a work in progress in terms of character development and story development.
    There are other individual projects considered as well that could provide to the workload.  This is for the far future to determine.
    James Warren Nichols/Kyle Bass
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