We could use more of a wave for Wednesday night. Usually a straight up anafront doesn’t verify the guidance bullish snow amounts.
Although next week a possible storm ala Christmas Eve 2020, has been showing up.
I'm always kinda torn with these types of winters. One part wants to delay Spring because it might be another 9 months before any winter weather returns.
The other side is just done with these snow drought winters, and couldn't care less if it ends.
Great scene outside with the sun shining through the snow covered trees. Overall solid forecast of a general 2-4”. Of course more if you were in that band.
Next Saturday we need that vort to drop down more south and west, to develop earlier for us.
It appears on both the nam and gfs, we avoid any SE surface wind for the duration of the event. For this type of borderline system, a downsloping wind would be a death knell.
18z is even more extreme with the cutoff. During the transfer we could have pockets of different 850 temps, similar to last months morning slush event.
I might be reading this incorrectly. But the long range ridging out west looks impressive, however the inverse trough seems more flat, stretching across the OV into the mid Atlantic.
Would like to see that trough dig into the mid south at worst.
Not many analog years for a second half February comeback.
The only one that comes to mind is 1993.
And even without the two big storms that season, we still managed about 35”.