dta1984

Saw ohweather mention the hrr in the other thread.  It's trying to back the 6" line to the east side.  It should definitely rip for a while once it switches to snow.  

3 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Heavy ice pellets in Chagrin. Wonder how long the change to snow will take.

Yep 32 and sleet in Solon.   Hopefully the snow switch is close. 

Should be interesting to see how it all plays out, and which models had a better handle on things. 

Seems like these changeover events have high bust potential.  A quicker changeover and less sleet would mean more snow, and less if it takes longer.  

Kind of funny looking at the cle winter page. Chardon has a range of 1 - 14" with a mean of 6".  Alot of variance lol. 

12 minutes ago, Trent said:

Watching these models the past few days emphasizes how incredibly difficult it is for Cleveland to score a 6"+ synoptic storm. Still plenty of time for things to turn around, but it would seem this will either end up being a run of the mill 3-6" snowfall or a narrow miss. 

Yep, now the nam slams Youngstown.   Crazy the waffling that has gone on.  Still... I like that we are in the middle of the recent bullseyes being shown.... Sandusky and now Youngstown.  Maybe it'll wiggle back?

Edit;  3km nam looks good

The cle discussion mentions lake enhancement, but seems to discount it due to ice cover.  I'd have to think the warmup we're getting will melt and move some of it.  

19 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Ha! You jinxed the storm DTA. Crazy trends with the models. We'll see what happens with the overnight runs but definitely looking like a less than impressive event after looking at 12z. Still a decent storm but if trends continue down this path we'll be too far west for anything appreciable.

The melting has started. Probably won't be much snow left by Friday morning.

Haha most everything today has been weaker and east.  The nam runs have been super juiced though and further west.  

2 hours ago, NEOH said:

Good disco from the WPC on the Friday/Saturday storm. Interesting that the euro jumped so far west last night... it probably has been the least consistent model with this storm but hard to ignore it.

We are definitely riding a fine line.  12z GFS still keeps us in it,  although it did move west some. 

2.5" event total here.  Just drizzle now, temp 33.  

Still looking good next weekend.   If anything I'd be more worried about a miss to the southeast. 

1/2" of sleet/snow and maybe freezing rain as well this morning.   Appears to be all snow now.

6z GFS says ne ohio bullseye next weekend.   Hopefully it's not sliding se too soon...

33 minutes ago, NEOH said:

CLE calling for 2-5" tonight in the higher elevations. We'll torch for a few days... Wonder how much/if any of the snow will be left by Friday.  There's a decent snow pack but very fluffy. Next weekend looks interesting. 5 days out but nice to see storm potential. 

Ya, don't really have a good low ratio base.  I'd guess majority will be lost.  Hopefully the brief warmup shifts and melts some of the lake ice.  

1 hour ago, NEOH said:

About the same total here. I noticed that the snow seemed to pick-up a bit as you get east of 306. Looks like the ice cover is becoming extensive.

Ya, figured the ice cover must have been hindering good band development.   Still appears to be persistent fine flake light snow,  though radar doesn't show much.  

1.25" overnight. Surprised as the radar never looked like much. Event total at 5.25"

I've got 4" average that fell from last night up until now.  Flake size not real impressive,  but snowing lightly. 

Getting some development started on the east side. Home webcam appears to show improved flake size.  

Eyeballing 2-3" overnight.  0z wrf still going bonkers on the east side. Should be a fun day to see what happens. 

12z ArW spits out 1" precip on the east side.  Seems overdone, but one can hope. 

12z nam runs bring .2-.3" precip from Eastern cuyh and east.  Wonder if this is pickup up moisture from huron? 

Happy new year all!

I'm on the southern edge of the band, lightly snowing.  Looks like it's sinking south, hopefully not too fast.  Traffic webcams around Cuyahoga county show mod to heavy snow along 480 and 271.

25 minutes ago, NEOH said:

Measured just over 7" this morning. Not your typical fluff despite the cold temps. Another chance of snow near the lakeshore tomorrow. Looks like winds are primarily from the wnw on the models unless I'm wrong. Just looked at the wrf and I don't see a wsw flow.

Cle mentions 290 winds.  Isn't that ideal for us?  Seems their map is more northeast for tomorrow.  Maybe ice cover hurting the fetch?

Looks like 3.5" new snow since late last night when I measured 4".  Lake effect total would be 7.5" .  Huron band was a nice surprise.   Didn't think it would get this far west. 

My monthly is at 27.5".  I've been out of town a bit, but that should be close. 

Almost looks like the Huron band is trying to swing back west now.

Just cleared 4" from my driveway.  Still snowing at a decent rate.   Just south/west of me is getting rocked though. Surprised Cuyahoga county isn't under a warning. 

1.5" overnight from the clipper.  Looks like the lake effect is starting to come on shore.  Should be an interesting day. 

Just noticed that the cle snowfall page is different this year.   They added probabilities of higher or lower.  

https://www.weather.gov/cle/winter

Great forecast ohweather, it seems like one of the better shots we've had recently (other than nickel and dime stuff).  

I recorded 0.8" of snow overnight.    Also kind of interesting is this December looks to be one of the snowiest in the past 4 years (as long as I've been keeping track out here).  Sitting at 18.4" now, Dec 2013 had 20.75".

14 hours ago, MAIDEsNow said:

Maybe this should be in the general LES thread for anyone interested, but will put here.

I was up at work today clearing the snow at our Park right on the lake. Later, I went into communities along the lakeshore from Fairview to Presque Isle and into the city of Erie proper. I will say, as Trent mentioned above, that those numbers reported at the airport may be a tad overdone. I realize there is settling, compacting, blowing, etc., but the snow depth really does not indicate any 60+ inches of snow since Sunday night. There may be a snow pack of 24-36" in spots, and not even that in the City. Even the piles, walkways, driveways etc after the plowing and snowblowing, just does not seem that 5 feet fell. Moreover, the original 5pm airport snowfall total on Christmas day was 13.6", and then was later upped to 21" due to some "measurement error" related to blowing/drifting. Dont get me wrong, they have some serious snow up there, but it is not as draconian as the news reports would suggest imo.

Route 430 in Harborcreek and Greenfield townships, just east southeast of I-90 running parallel seemed to have the most snow.

Interesting !   Some of that is probably due to the compacting nature and settling of lake effect.  Seems like that when buffalo had the big Lake effect event a few years ago that roughly only 50% of the 6 foot (or whatever fell) was actually on the groud.