jayyy
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Everything posted by jayyy
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Steady light snow in Columbia - sticking immediately. I’m going with 4-8” area wide and calling it a day. Time to enjoy.
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Holy crap guys. Did you read the models over the past week? Or just look at QPF output? there are two portions of this storm my man. InItial waa snows and then from the main low. There is supposed to be a gap and lull in precip until this thing gets going and consolidates please stop with the jumping over the edge posts 1 hour into the event.
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Warnings up for Howard Montgomery Baltimore and points WSW for 4-8”.
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I think central MD is in a good spot. South enough for high qpf totals, north enough for good ratios. Should help Howard and Montgomery county get to DC’s totals.
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Dark sky app clearly uses the NAM output lmao. Shows 7-11+ for my current location at work in Columbia. Nuts! still think we see 4-8” area wide. 4” north of Baltimore, 6” between Baltimore and dc and 8+ Possible dc and south.
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6z Euro looks good. QPF bump HRRR /SREF are juicy as well ICON GFS Euro all agree on approaching warning snowfall, if not exceeding it. Alright, time for a 12z NAM’ing!
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12z nam incoming in the next half hour.... I expect a doozy. If Trends continue, they need to extend warnings up to the Baltimore parallel at least, if not further north
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Yup. Been saying this for days. Watch NW trend at last minute. Models always overdo confluence and push storms flatter and weaker than they should be. Models have been hinting at the confluence weakening and there being ample gulf transport for days now. Why I said never to abandon ship 3.5 days out with the jackpot just to our south. It’s a foolish move and the last 24 hours proves why. Wait and see time... but the SREF and HRRR are hefty if anybody looks @ short term models
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And I think it may be better than progged by models. Per usual, models didn’t properly pick up precip intensity, lift, or dendrite growth/ratios. dont see anything that would hinder that happening here. And I don’t remember models having snow that far north either.
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PS... always good to watch reports out west.. reports of over a foot in missouri. The storm is packing a huge punch and is expansive.
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That being said... if 12z nam shows another shellacking with support from current OBS, they need to move warnings north. 25 degrees here in Howard county, humidity 66%, and dew is 16... still have room for temps to fall as column cools down from precip. Going to be an amazing scene out there tonight. Dark sky has 4-8” in my local forecast.
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ICON continues wet runs and north trend. NAM RGEM and GEFS support it. Euro as well. Were locked in guys!
