RodneyS

New year, same story. Here are the maximums, minimums, and average temperatures (degrees Fahrenheit) for January 13th and January 21st this year at Reagan National Airport (DCA): January 13th: Maximum 53 Minimum 30 Average 41.5 January 21st: Maximum 43 Minimum 19 Average 31.0 This is the 5th consecutive year that January 13th has averaged at least 8.5 degrees warmer than January 21st at DCA, and brings average temperatures for those two days in DC (DCA since 1945) to the numbers in the below summary table during the 155 years since daily temperatures began to be officially recorded in DC in January 1872. I have broken down that 155-year period into 1872-1983, when January 13th was the coldest day of January and January 21st was the second warmest day of January in DC; 1984-2013, when January 13th was the warmest day of January and January 21st was the coldest day of January at DCA; and 2014-2026, which is the 13-year period since I discovered the flip-flop between January 13th and January 21st. Period Jan 13 Jan 21 Jan 21 minus Jan 13 1872-1983 33.3 36.8 +3.5 1984-2013 40.3 32.1 -8.2 2014-2026 41.3 32.4 -8.9 If only maximum temperatures are analyzed for January 13th and January 21st, the summary table shows an even greater temperature disparity for those two days during those three periods: Period Jan 13 Jan 21 Jan 21 minus Jan 13 1872-1983 40.2 44.8 +4.6 1984-2013 48.5 39.5 -9.0 2014-2026 51.1 39.5 -11.6 So what exactly is going on here? When I first discovered the January 13th/21st temperature flip-flop in early 2013, I consided that it could be a random variation, but its magnitude seemed too large to me for that to be the case. I did have to concede, however, that if the flip-flop disappeared or significantly weakened as the years moved on, a random variation would be the best explanation. As of today, January 21, 2026, I conclude that a random variation is now off the table as a plausible explanation because it is off-the-charts unlikely that such a varation would not only continue, but actually increase to some extent in magnitude during the past 13 years. Consider the astonishing situation regarding maximum temperatures on those two days in DC: Between 1872-1983 and 1984-2013, the January 13th average maximum increased 8.3 degrees from 40.2 to 48.5, while the January 21st average maximum decreased (in the face of rising annual temperatures) 5.3 degrees from 44.8 to 39.5, for a 13.6 degree relative change. However, instead of those two days moving at least somewhat closer together in maximum temperature during the most recent 13 years, which would have been almost certain if the flip-flop during 1984-2013 had been a random variation, the January 13th average maximum increased an additional 2.6 degrees to 51.1, while the January 21st average maximum stayed the same at 39.5. If I were to speculate as to what is going on, I would guess that it has something to do with the unprecedented rise in Arctic temperatures since 1983 fostering a currently unexplained phenomenon in which Arctic air is somehow generally blocked from arriving in DC on January 13th, while being somehow generally facilitated to arrive there on January 21st. Hopefully, someone who is knowledgeable about weird meteorological phenomena can determine the specific mechanism that has enabled the current situation.

And I also agree with @PrinceFrederickWxabout @Roger Smith, who has put more effort into running contests and compiling statistics than anyone I know.

I will return the compliment to @PrinceFrederickWx, who was very helpful to me when I took over running the snowfall contest three years ago. He is also a thoughtful and considerate poster.

Currently the Weather Channel is calling for 6-12 inches of snow this weekend in both DC and at Dulles Airport. On the other hand, the National Weather Service forecast is for a 30% chance of precipitation this weekend at both locations. Therefore, any competent online weather forecaster can readily conclude that this weekend's storm will be historic, obliterating even the record snow that fell 104 years ago in the Knickerbocker Storm of January 27-28, 1922.

BWI managed another 0.2 inches of snow yesterday to bring @rjvanalsever closer to the lead.

A little more snow today at BWI (0.2), DCA (0.1), and IAD (0.3). @rjvanalsneeds a combined 0.6 inches at BWI, DCA, and RIC to take the lead.

I understand, but my point was that it is quite remarkable that currently California is in better shape than any other state drought-wise, whereas in December 2000 many other states were similarly situated to California in being drought-free. Was there any month prior to January 2026 in US history where California was the drought-free leader among all states?

Further research reveals that the last time California had neither drought nor abnormally dry conditions was more than 25 years ago -- December 2000. However, in that month many other states were similary situated, with drought a relatively minor problem in the US. So today's situtation may be unique in US history; see Map Archive | U.S. Drought Monitor

FYI, today's drought monitor map shows at least abnormally dry conditions in every state but one -- California: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.3 2.7 3.3 0.5 -0.7 -0.8

Congratulations to Tom on his 2025 win, and many thanks to Roger for all the time he has put into this contest over many years.

Dulles received 0.1 inch of snow this morning, and so here is the updated table, which shows a decreased departure for all entrants of 0.1.

December 2025 at DCA ended on a cold note, averaging 37.3 degrees, tied for 94th warmest December of 155 years in DC history and 4.4 degrees below the 1991-2020 normal of 41.7. The last time December was colder at DCA was 2010, which averaged 34.6. December 2025 precipitation at DCA was also below normal at 1.77 inches vs a December average of 3.41 during 1991-2020. The 2025 yearly average temperature at DCA was in marked contrast to 2024, averaging only 59.5 degrees, 18th warmest in DC history and down 2.3 from last year's record-breaking warm 61.8 degrees. Precipitation in 2025 at DCA totaled 35.56 inches, only the 119th wettest in DC history and below the 1991-2020 normal of 41.72 inches. The last time there was less precipitation at DCA was 2016, in which DCA received 31.70 inches. This marks the third consecutive year of below normal precipitation at DCA; however, the preceding five years were all above normal there, including the record-breaking 66.28 inches in 2018.

Those are interesting numbers, but a tad late for this season's contest.

DCA snow total today has been finalized at 0.4, and IAD snow total has been finallzed at 0.7. See updated seasonal totals below.