weatherpruf

2 minutes ago, Snowshack said:

That’s the perfect winter, white from December to March.  Cant see it happening here.  Even 95/96 melted down.  We go back and forth to our place in the adirondacks to chase winter and even there wall to walls are getting rare.  

We can get some great 4-6 week periods here and that’s certainly still on the table to root for.  

Even in ME my BIL says the 14 inches they had is gone.

On 12/24/2018 at 9:50 AM, LibertyBell said:

Last week when we got to 60 and it was raining I saw mosquitoes and flies.  Not many but a few were there, maybe all that standing water is why they are still alive? I have a small pond in my backyard and my ground isn't frozen here yet, maybe that needs to happen for us to kill off all this stuff.

 

Yeah I was seeing some insects too. Doesn't take much warmth to get them active.

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You got into the mid teens and we’re below 25 for 24 hours plus. That’s as text book a growing season ending event that you will ever see. Your not in a different climate zone then Central Park. Some herbs can be incredibly hardy, I had rose Mary that lasted for 3 full years. All regular perrenials ended for the season in that event. Anything that did not is not a perennial.

I’m not trying to start a fight by the way at all, I just happen to know allot about horticulture as that’s what I do for a living. 

Waiting for some mangled flakes here on the island  

So I went outside to take a look. The parsley seems fine and is not damaged at all. The sage is damaged but alive, as is the rosemary and the oregano looks good too. All but the parsely are in a planter ( and old charcoal grill that was converted ) and are elevated off the ground, so maybe that's a factor. But I also saw sprouting tomato seedlings and numerous new growth in weeds. That would be after the Nov cold snap. Maybe it's just my memory, but it seemed when I was a kid (70's ) the ground froze and stayed pretty much too cold for any December growth. I'm not well versed in herbs, so my ID's could be off. I'm more familiar with growing nightshade crops. I do know that crops in the cole family can take this kind of cold and shrug it right off; many people have decorative kale around all winter. I personally think it looks ugly, but that's me. Didn't see any flakes here today. Next time.

9 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

You got into the mid teens and we’re below 25 for 24 hours plus. That’s as text book a growing season ending event that you will ever see. Your not in a different climate zone then Central Park. Some herbs can be incredibly hardy, I had rose Mary that lasted for 3 full years. All regular perrenials ended for the season in that event. Anything that did not is not a perennial.

I’m not trying to start a fight by the way at all, I just happen to know allot about horticulture as that’s what I do for a living. 

Waiting for some mangled flakes here on the island  

No problem. Thing is I didn't even plant this parsely, It seeded itself. it's all over the place.

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

The trend over the last few years has been for March to be cold and snowy despite ENSO state

Yes but in my region it hasn't worked out. It takes a long time to accumulate. In fact the last storm of March was the only one that delivered a serious amount. We did have a small April 1st event that was nice too. Overall though, I am too close to the city and the bay for big numbers in March. Sometimes the first few days of the month have been cold, like in 2015. We do best around here in mid-Jan-mid Feb. A few miles west or east makes a big difference, and 50 miles is huge. 

52 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

No lasting hard frost? Did you forget the mid teens in November? That killed any and all perrenials. If you have greenery it’s either new growth or something much hardier. 

 

It wasn't that hard down my way; the greenery is parsely. The sage finally gave out. 

3 hours ago, Cfa said:

6 inches can fall on December 1st and be gone by December 2nd, that doesn’t count as a white Christmas, although I realize that expecting snow to fall on particular calendar days is ridiculous, it doesn’t negate the fact that December generally isn’t as friendly to snow lovers as January, February, and even March.

My comment had more to do with some members getting antsy about the absence of snow + the post card version of NYC around the holidays that suggest it’s *supposed* to be snowy, when in reality 50+ degrees is significantly more likely than snow on 12/24 & 12/25. The 2010’s have been the gift that keeps on giving (weather-wise), so I fully expect this winter to drag on for eons like almost all of the others in this era (I hope I’m wrong).

Overall the winters are warmer and shorter than they were years ago. I still have greenery in parts of my garden; there has been no lasting hard frost, and I have earthworms coming out in rainstorms. While there has been a little more snow if you average it out, in no way could we call the last few winters overly long. Now, cool wet Aprils that can feel like winter is hanging on, if that is what you mean, I grant you that. 

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

December numbers are skewed high thanks to a few anomalous years, especially 2010. I believe we also had 8” or so in 2012 on Christmas Day.

Really December is no more a Winter month than September is an Autumn month.

Wasn't 2012. Maybe up your way, but we didn't see much snow here until the Feb storm, discounting the 3-4 we had in early Nov that year. 

6 hours ago, JerseyWx said:

Those are rare exceptions though.  In our area, any significant snow in December should not be expected.

There should be some lighter events though. Snowless Decembers correlate with poor snow amounts for the rest of the winter. When it does nothing in Dec, I take a dim view of the rest of the winter. We've had a few exceptions in recent years, so I don't write it off, but it generally isn't a good sign if you like snow.

4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I think in the city and western Nassau we have much more of an issue with urban heat island, it makes it harder to accumulate as much snow in March with the higher sun angle.  The last few Marches have been better, however we still haven't had anything in western LI or NYC to match the Boxing Day Blizzard or the early December 2003 blizzard for that matter.  In central and eastern LI the Equinox Snowstorm last year matched it though.  Once you get to the area around Farmingdale out to around Wading River or so, you guys do much better with late season events.  Even the south shore of Suffolk County out to about Westhampton or so does better than we do with late season events.

Jan 2016 in my neck of NJ was as big as Boxing Day, but not as windy IIRC. March was mostly a bust for us except for the very last storm, where we got somewhere in the realm of 8-10 after it snowed a total of 3-4 all day. March has never really delivered the goods in my neck of the woods. People really got emotional with me arguing this point last year but in the end I was right, backed up by Mitchel Volk himself. 

On 12/20/2018 at 1:02 PM, Nibor said:

I’m so sick of rain. 

This. My backyard is a pond. There are mallards in my neighbor's yard. And the dog rolls around in the mud and tracks it into the house.

36 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1883 has to be the coldest snowiest pre Christmas on record...

day...max...min precip snowfall

19.....37.....22.....0.60".....4.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-20/ed-1/seq-5/

20.....24.....21........0

21.....29.....21.....0.35".....3.5" est...http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-22/ed-1/seq-5/

22.....25.....10........0

23.....10......-1.....0.01".....0.1" started late on the 23rd...

24.....31.......7.....0.80".....7.4" ended during the day...est. snow cover at midnight...10-12"...

25.....31.....28.....0.38".....5.0" snowed 3pm to midnight...

26.....35.....25........0

27.....48.....30.....0.41

1883...

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-24/ed-1/seq-5/

1883

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030214/1883-12-25/ed-1/seq-2/

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399969

1883 snowfall from the Brooklyn Eagle...

http://bklyn.newspapers.com/image/50399973/

1883 snowfall in the NY Tribune...

http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-1/

http://chroniclingam...-25/ed-1/seq-2/

http://chroniclingamerica.loc.gov/lccn/sn83030272/1883-12-26/ed-1/seq-1/

Would you believe that back in 83 my car broke down and the mechanic told me the gas lines had frozen? Didn't think that was possible, I was a 22 year old kid so i bought it. I remember limping in the cold from a warehouse where I was a guard ( keeping watch over cabbage patch dolls, remember them? ) to some stranger's house and they took me right in so I could use the phone ( no cellphones! ) to call my dad. It was dangerously cold. This winter I dunno, warm Decembers like this, and a Nov snow, i'm not betting on a lot of snow. BUt the weather is freakish these days so nothing surprises me anymore. Just don't give me predictions of two feet of snow and I get 3-6 anymore. By my count we have had 4 or 5 of them in the past few years. Only one, Jan 2016 actually delivered, and that was basically all she wrote for that winter.....

47 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

So Judah Cohen is on a new tack.    He was so sure of his snow-cover ideas.   I hope he has it right now. 

All I get out of any article like this is that the next card out of the deck may be the 'A of Spades or the 2 of Clubs'.    If you want to know for certain---Mark the Deck!.     But noone knows what marks the atmosphere has put on itself this year or any year.

I don't mind waiting, when I know what I am waiting for.    

Some meteorologist's or climatologist's prediction will be right for this season, and that person will be the new 'gura of the atmosphere', just like on the Business News channels.  LoL.

 

 

Just saw a diagram on another non weather site that showed a probable El Nino and warmer than average temps for most of the northern tier of the country. It sure didn't look at all like a snowy pattern, I think it was the Climate Prediction Center? Beneath it was two meteorologists calling for an El Nino and....a snowy pattern for the NYC region. Ok, then.

1 hour ago, CarLover014 said:

I hate to be a party poopers, but if the snow and rain, if any, could hold off on Christmas Eve, that'd be great. I'm not looking forward to an already miserable 18 hour drive to Southwest Florida. 

There is no other kind of drive to FL, hombre....anytime I have to go their it's miserable. Can't stand the place. Get sick from something every time I am forced to spend time there.

1 hour ago, uncle W said:

meh...it was still cold enough that you could not go swimming unless you are a member of the polar Bears...

Even the fish don't hang around in the cold water Unc, ya gotta go further and further as we get into Dec. The great winter fisheries we had locally 40 years ago for whiting and mackerel and cod are long past. 

13 hours ago, North and West said:

What gets me is the bonkers headline (could be clickbait, who knows) that millennials don't own can openers. C'mon, really?

A lot of people don't anymore, at least not electric ones. I brought one home last year and no one else, even the adults ( from another country ) could operate it. We'd had hand ones for 25 years here, but I grew up with electric ones. My son the millenial ( if he is a millenial ) is the only one who uses it with ease, ironically.

18 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Nov 1989 and Nov 2012 were both great on Long Island and in Central NJ.  Double digit snowfall totals from each storm in November and Nov 89 actually occurred the night before Thanksgiving!

Both were meh here, other than the timing. 3-5 deals, but in the 80's any measurable snow was welcome. Something about my area, we often miss the big totals. Not always, but often.

12 hours ago, LurkerBoy said:

Wow...2013 was WILD.

I think the 23rd is exactly right, and that we see temps rise to 2014 levels for a day or 2. Nothing crazy. 

I am sure we were in the 70's in 2015; I had a tomato seedling sprout between patio pavers ( damn squirrels drop the seeds everywhere ) but I am SW of Manhattan, across from SI.

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

It's interesting that the other top 5 snowiest Novembers in NYC had a bit of a snow lull from December 1-15. While we are in a completely different era now, sometimes there are parts of these old analogs that can rhyme.

Top 5 snowiest Novembers in NYC

#1....1898...19.0.....Dec 1-15....0.5...season....55.9

#2....1882...14.0......................0.0........44.0

#3....1938...12.0......................0.0....37.3

#4....2018....6.4...................... 0.0 so far

#5...1892.....6.3.......................1.5....44.7

#6...1896.....5.0.......................0.0.....43.6

What about 89 and 2102? 89 was all she wrote ( or was it 88? ) and 2012-13 didn't get rolling til we got the Feb storm, which we looked to get fringed on but managed 6  ( another one where you needed to be east, so Manhattan got 11 and a few miles west less, just like last Jan. ) and then we had a piddly March event of 5 or so that was down to about 2.5 by day's end...

On 12/8/2018 at 4:35 PM, North and West said:

I know it’s banter (forgive me; our weather is quiet) but with Christmas just around the corner, I remember when I was 10 in 1992 (elder millennial... I have kids and own a home and live in the suburbs... so not a stereotypical one) and got the NOAA Weather Radio for Christmas from Radio Shack.

It was awesome. I finally got to supplement the 5-day business planner that I could only catch once a days.


.

Actually in the real world most millenials are more like you, and yes they eat canned tuna. My son is the last year of the millenials, 1997, and he opened two cans this week, the costco ones that actually have enough for a sandwich. I told him lay off the tuna, mercury and all. Once in awhile, that's it.

33 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Go on, complain that it's not raining 

Cold and dry are great hiking conditions. Love to take a walk in the woods and not get mud all over. Gotta try to enjoy the weather we have. It's also great weather for fishing, salt or fresh. I don't hunt, but I'm told it's good for that too. Of course I enjoy the big snows as well.

3 hours ago, CarLover014 said:

Brigantine, NJ had reports of 7.5" of snow today

Hope this isn't setting up to be another 09-10 type winter. That was a bit of a bummer for my area ( though we still had a few nice storms, nothing huge though)

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow I just transposed the middle two digits on the first one ;-)

so in both cases we are talking about 1800s.

I wonder if this winter will be as rare as 1995-96 or 2010-11 when we were pulling old analogs like that.

You never really know anymore what will happen, there can be years like 2016 and 2006 which were duds except for two big daddy's, or years when everyone swears it will be great and not much happens. Or like 2015, nothing happening until well into Jan. 2015 was strange in that we racked up a lot of inches after Jan with mostly smaller events, the biggest coming in early March, with a cold powdery storm to boot. I never pay much attention to long term patterns but when PB or Forky write something, I pay attention

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

big el ninos are the best for us, Feb 83, PD2 and Jan 2016 are my three largest.

Indeed, for big storms yes. Not sure if 96 was in that camp. But I prefer years like 94 or 2014 with lots of smaller but decent events. Those two footers are hard to deal with for me. Not that I don't enjoy the hell out of them.....95-96 was a rare year with both lots of smaller events and one huge one, 2010-11 would have been but winter was over mid-Feb.

15 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Pretty sure he's not the one drinking the kool-aid.   

It was actually Flavor Aide that was used at Jonestown, but we get the drift....