weatherpruf

8 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Hey how come NOAA.gov site is down and also what happened to intellicast.com? I don’t get it. 35 degrees outside and cooling down slowly

Is this a trick question?

13 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

Based on what?

And I'm thinking max 1-3 then slop then freezing. That's how these things usually play out in these parts. My BIL in ME, though, might be a hurtin cowboy...then again it's Maine. Believe it or not, many people there hate snow.

Just now, jm1220 said:

Wasn't enthused by this one near the coast yesterday and aren't now. My call is the south shore getting up to a couple of inches before a washout, the north shore and northern NYC maybe a few inches and sleet before rain, and 6"+ starting west of the Tappan Zee Bridge, north of I-80 in NJ and inland CT. There it snows for a while before sleet and then icing. The signs are pointing fairly strongly towards the typical N/W favored storm that washes away any snow from the city and east/south. Perhaps a nasty flash freeze areawide though as it exits and drops the arctic hammer.

We can hope. Not a fan of ice. 

27 minutes ago, richm20 said:

Propane is a gas

 

I never would have guessed....pretty clear the OP meant gasoline. For your edification most Americans colloquially refer to gasoline as gas....which is why my dual fuel generator is advertised as propane and gas.... so take that mister smarty pants

Just now, North and West said:

Good reminder. Get gas today, too, in case there's a lot of freezing rain and power goes out. Pumps won't work sans electricity.

Get a propane generator

Just now, NYCweatherNOW said:

No that’s not going to be the case Tim. I mean in life anything is possible just chances are against that. Unless you live in south jersey 

We can hope it verifies on the warmer end, those of us in lower NNJ/CNJ, so we don't get much ice. If much snow is off the table, I'd rather plain rain ( though we are all sick of the rain )

29 minutes ago, tim said:

...yeah..i got close to an inch of snow..temp @ 28.4..still have -S.

wouldn't surprise me if this will be more snow then i get on sat./sun slop fest.

I'm hoping for a typical slopfest over ice frankly. 

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

Its showing .87 of ZR for NYC lol not that I'm buying that 

In this era of wild weather nothing can be discounted. I'm a little worried about this storm TBH. It has the potential to be a disappointing storm in terms of snow and real pain in the neck in terms of ice. My daughter will be traveling by bus from DC Sat night. I'm concerned.

Just now, Gravity Wave said:

NAM shows more of a sleet than freezing rain threat for the area.

That would be better for all 

16 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 

What's not clear about the post???

I believe a drier system, than is cast ATM  will come thru the metro

NAM  guidance shows a decrease in QPF by almost a half inch at 18z

  that's a clipper track..... if you ask me

 

By the way, kinda hope you're right, who needs a lot of ice and ZR. Not me. Not anyone.

14 minutes ago, Doorman said:

 

What's not clear about the post???

I believe a drier system, than is cast ATM  will come thru the metro

NAM  guidance shows a decrease in QPF by almost a half inch at 18z

  that's a clipper track..... if you ask me

 

I surmised as much, but not everyone here would. But it's ok. Not to worry. You're a man of few words. Nothing wrong with it. You have something to say, while I just like to say something...

11 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

Do explain what you mean or someone in here?? Thanks in advance 

That's about the most explanation you'll get from him. He's strictly for those in the know. But a decent fellow it seems.

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So fitting for this winter so far, I guess, the new HRRR has backed way off the snow for tonight/early tomorrow morning, as did the last couple of runs. You can’t make this up https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hrrr&region=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019011723&fh=13

I had forgotten completely about it, until I went to the supermarket. Never got out of the car. I wish people would take the time to look up the weather for themselves and stop acting like its the end of the world every time snow is mentioned. They do not do this when they call for a chance of thunderstorms in summer.....what were we supposed to get? Not much, I gather?

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

That's fine I've also pointed out numerous times how the HV may be in line for a catastrophic ice event. There is also a N&W thread for this situation. There's been, and always has been unrealistic wishcast posters who can freely post nonsense so long as its snowy and get by. I would also love a crippling blizzard  it that's going to have to wait for a different season or year.

But does it really matter? Let them be. I'm just south of the city ( Manhattan ) across from SI and while I don't expect much snow, I'm not ready to say it's a non event; been fooled by ice in the past. The potential has to be respected. I'm rooting for not much ice FWIW, but ya know it's out of our control....

1 minute ago, NJwx85 said:

It's funny, and sad how the same people that bashed the NWS for calling for all rain yesterday are now bashing them for forecasting snow.

Point taken.

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

5-8 for Somerset County...what is Mt Holly drinking?

Maybe the western portions and some of the hills; the eastern portions should be in line with Middlesex Co. We generally cannot expect much in these setups. Best we can hope for is more warmth, because the alternative is more ice. All snow or sleet we can deal with, but that doesn't look likely.

Just now, USCG RS said:

This is true.. And I am wrong. Apologies.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

That's too bad. You know your stuff and if you say snow I pay attention. We all make mistakes. 

2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Much of that is not going to be snow with 850s above freezing for a time

Isn't the Ukie alone on this though?

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Not much sleet with this storm. It’s going to be snow to freezing rain to rain at the coast and snow to freezing rain inland.

Yeah not a nice scenario. Hope it isn't too bad up there.

3 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

Since it seems like a big snow event is becoming a remote possibility for the coast, I'm hoping for a north trend and plain rain. No interest in an ice storm.

It's becoming a remote possibility for most of NJ from what I see here. I got a feeling we are in for some kind of ice, and like you I am hoping it isn't long duration and it flips to all rain. 

6 minutes ago, Animal said:

Qpf is not really that impressive on the 0z nam. We will survive.

6 inches of snow or so over a sandwich of sleet & freezing rain.

 

Just west of Manhattan maybe. Just west of SI is all rain. If it rains in my experience it's going to rain up into Essex and Hudson as well. You get over to the Watchungs and it will probably sleet longer. Just really not a storm to get excited about; more one we want to survive.

2 minutes ago, CarLover014 said:

00z NAM brings a sleeter for NNJ 

For once I am glad to be just barely on the rain side. That shows a significant strip of high population area under freezing rain.

28 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Number 1 analog on Cips is 2/14/2007.

Just reading Mt. Holly before, I don't think this one will even be as good as that, which was all frozen at least. we may change over to all rain quickly. really, that's the best scenario for us, we're not gonna get big snows it seems, and really no one wants ice. But it would be a good idea to prepare for it. If it happens, it will be too late to get a generator if you don't have one; people will be scoffing them up like it's the apocalypse.

22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The odd thing though is at this range in 2007 most models showed that event being entirely snow.  So either models sucked worse then on thermals or that started more off the coast and trended more NW as we got closer in.  I don’t remember.  

Agreed, that's why that was such a disappointment. Not this time, I really am not expecting much snow near me, but hopefully won't have any icing. Much rather plain rain. Black ice could be a concern, and more than usual, if those temps plummet like they expect. 

Just now, ny10019 said:

dumb question what is a CAD

Don't be embarrassed there are all kinds of abbreviations that I gave up on here. CAD, NAO, EPO and ENSO are the ones ya gotta really know; you'll pick up the rest eventually. And you don't really need to know all of them to understand the forecasts.