weatherpruf

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

If you want to be pessimistic moving forward then I get it, but on paper the pattern looks very favorable for cold & snow starting around the 25/26. 

Ops & ensembles are very good last few days of Jan going into Feb.

PV hangs around Hudson Bay, coldest anomalies are in the Midwest, -AO/NAO, excellent Miller B pattern actually.

Prefer Miller A's, but will take anything....

23 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Look at the pattern and then get back to me. The mjo is going into the COD and the lag for the ssw is up.

Things will quickly change for the better. It sucks right now but it's only January.

Remember 2016? 

Alot of places didn't get their 1st major storm until the blizzard.

I think that was our first here in Jan 2016 as well. Great storm, but it still didn't have that winter feel; I believe we had one other piddly event in Feb. And it melted so quickly. Hopefully Feb delivers; aside from the Dec 09 storm, we did nothing in 2010 til Feb.

14 minutes ago, Jersey Devil said:

You are both wrong.... the milkbox was for keeping the snakes that you caught that your mom wouldn't let you bring in the house...

Yes yes!! My brother and I stashed a bullfrog in one!

8 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Wow, a memory I had forgotten all about.  Also in mid 50's and I did the same thing.  Bundled up and sat on the metal milk box waiting for the clouds to move in and the first flakes to fall.

Life was simpler...no internet, you had to rely on the evening news, Accuweather discussions at 35 min after the hour,  a Radio Shack weather cube and the power of observation to try and figure out what was happening.  I'll bet 75% of the people on this board don't know what a milk box was used for.

Thanks for the memory!

In the early 90's my neighbor still got milk deliveries in a milkbox. When I was a kid in the 70's many people had them on the front porch but they didn't use them.

Just now, NJwx85 said:

Philly is going to start as rain it seems.

Not just Philly. It's raining lightly here in Middlesex Co.

11 minutes ago, North and West said:

Right, and this feels like one of those years from when I was a kid in the early 1990s. What can you do, you know?


.

Nothing. Raining lightly here by the way. So much for a front end thump.

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

we all love storms and cold in the winter, but I tend to agree, this year is not going to plan-yes the pattern changed but the sensible weather is more of the same...the cold we've had has been dry and eventless for the most part.    Hoping for a change, but looks like we're looking to Feb now (or very close to it) and going essentially snowless for 2/3 of met winter....hope springs eternal fellow weenies!!!!

I will be happy with one decent event. Haven't seen too many storms over 8 inches here since 2016.

11 minutes ago, West Mtn NY said:

I am going on 55 yrs old and I can not ever remember a storm with arctic, low dew air banked just to our NW, N and over NNE, where a storm angling up from the SW came across PA - NNJ and rode across LI. Until this shows me it can happen, I will continue to call BS. The NW side has been eroding slowly SE the past few hours instead of blossoming out like a storm with a northerly track would feature. I will gladly eat humble pie tomorrow if this does not correct South. Not being a weenie. Just going by what I have seen happen all my life since I sat on a metal milk box on my front stoop in Brooklyn in the 1970s watching cirrus and wind direction to predict the weather days in advance at the tender age of 10.

Some years it just finds a way not to snow.

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that's the point I was trying to make above...folks said that once we got out of the last warm phase that we were all set and just as it was preparing to go through a ride from 7/8/1 it went back into the COD and popped out around 5 again and with some moderate amplitude.   Even JB says today that it's not what he wants to see....

Whatever JB or anyone else wants to see doesn't mean a thing. I have seen people on these boards call for a turnaround every year. Sometimes it happens sometimes not. Like I said elsewhere, it's like a medium doing a cold reading, you are bound to get some things right just from random chance. My unscientific take is that the writing is on the wall for this winter, and was the minute it snowed in Nov. But I would never take that to the bank because it would be foolish. I don't know the future or I'd by a winning lottery ticket. And as I've said, hope springs eternal. And we've got Anthony cheering us on....

16 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Ok--my memory fails me when it comes to weather.  The recall demonstrated by the members is impressive to say the least!

Long term memory is the last to go....

19 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

how so?

There was a big Jan storm for some parts to the east and NJ coast....it was a much smaller deal out my way, 7 inches. And we had a Feb event in the midst of warmth. Then 2 missed March ones. In my area we need Jan and Feb to put up big snow numbers. Still hoping for a turnaround.

17 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The supermarkets were still crazy today down here. A lot of cautious folks after the November surprise snow. But this is one I'm pretty confident will be a washout by me. 

In retrospect it should have been obvious, but hope springs eternal. We are getting toward Feb now. Keep hearing things are gonna turn around, but I remember too many winters like this. Never know when below average snow will set in for a few years; seen multiple years without much.

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

No offense but this was never really about East of the Hudson River. I thought the city and LI would see a few inches and I still think that possible but that area isn't the main concern.

I seem to remember Manhattan was in the game for awhile; my area, just south of there was always on the fringe of a few inches.

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's a balmy 37/28 right now and way too much salt everywhere. 

It's so odd how everyone I talked to is expecting some big snowstorm, the media really hyped this up for no reason.

I don't know people I talked to casually in the bank etc this morning all seemed to know it was a bust down our way. But there is a state of emergency on, I guess for icing in northern parts of the state.

18 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

We had the late December storm in a very warm pattern that dumped 6-8". There was a noreaster in January with a good dump of snow before sleet and rain. Interior locations may have gotten up to a foot. There also a surprise storm in late Feb that gave parts of the city on east 6"+

That wasn't 1990; I was teaching in Elizabeth. There was no snow to speak of, and I remember returning a parka to LL Bean because it was too warm. Didn't have our first snow day until March 93.

1 hour ago, frd said:

Yes, thats true.

We would be in a prime time to cash in. 

There was some talk around from the strat guys including Earthlight, aka John Homenuk, that the date near Jan 21 st might be the day where the models sense the influence of the SSWE on the troposphere from downwelling.  I mean the weeklies must be anticipating something in the HL from that for the look that they provide. 

I would watch the next several days for modeling changes. 

I hope this year provides more research on the effect of SSWE and the Pacific as it relates to the MJO and convection and heat release. 

 

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am stoked that we actually see a negative NAO. First time This year. Last year the SSW resulted in 28 inches from March through April. Was epic even had a tree fall on my house early March. This SSW if similar would be better due to earlier timing and therefore better than 7 to 1 snow ratios. 

Sorry about the tree. Iwas always worried about my old oak and finally took it down after a decade of serious storms. I didn't do well with most of the March storms down here but we had the bonus April event.

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

1990 91 was a dud but had 2 good March events.

It was 92, and they weren't really impressive down my way. Not enough to close school. I was teaching at the time. But it was a bit of a surprise, as we'd had a lot of mild Marches up til then.

13 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

36 here in the city. Not optimistic for any more than an inch of snow/sleet. Maybe we should all go in on building a  cabin in the Catskills for next winter.

I'm looking in ME personally. But that is for the summer weather and fishing:)

29 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

So a couple of things, first as someone mentioned, the cold air drainage is still taking place. You can see how the isobars are moving towards the SW out of New England. That is a sign of CAD. 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl

Secondly, look how cold wet bulb temps are. If the precip comes in heavy like most guidance shows it will cool the column.

Are we safe to assume that we don't have to worry much about ice damage south of about lower Union county? Or do you think there is an outside chance of that?

7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The warmer trend has increased the threat of ice, instead of sleet.

I am sorry for the folks further north, but I would be lying if I said I wasn't happy that I might see plain rain instead of ice. Fortunately ice storms are not common on the coastal plain. Interior sections get them much more often. This could be a bad setup for them. My BIL said when he was a kid in ME, the schools just didn't close for snow. But they did for ice. and those  are diehard New Englanders.

2 minutes ago, sferic said:

That can all change after the 06Z runs

I actually went to bed and woke up with a stuffy nose....I think the writing is on the wall already for a lot of us, and one way to tell is the lack of activity here. It's just not looking good for for the city south. Could be a big one in New England, but, well, it's New England. Snow in winter is hardly news there. Maybe the next one will deliver. Hope the ice isn't too bad to our north, really don't wanna see people suffer.

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Agree and from what Ive seen and gather the only places really at risk of no front end snow would be the south shore of LI and maybe the immediate coast of Queens/Brooklyn but even that i'm skeptical of, I think it comes in snow for everyone in NYC/LI

Ok I don't know as much as a lot of people here, but I really am doubting, based solely on what I'm reading and seeing here, that this is going to be much to get excited about for most of NJ south of about Union county. I get that this will be a serious event in a lot of other places, but starting to think we are safe down here.

6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Not meaning to impart bias or disregard analysis thusfar, I have no preference and will take whatever the atmosphere gives us because I have no choice.  Just wanted to say the sensible weather impacting millions of people depends upon some very thin temperature lines over just a few miles.  Looks like the ultimate nowcast.  Stay off the roads, wherever you are.  I wouldn't wager any amount of snow or ice for anyone right now in the Metro.  If you want to bet on rain and drive around, godspeed to you.

Some people have no choice, my daughter will be on a bus from DC at 4pm. I am really rooting for all rain on this one, anyway maps show me with no more than 3 at best; if the icing can hold off til later, great. Maybe we don't even see any ice down my way ( southern tip of SI area )

1 minute ago, USCG RS said:

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk
 

I used to work on a fishing boat. After the Joan La Rie sank off the Jersey coast and the captain went down with the ship, my cap said "I'm old fashioned, but the heck with that sh...."

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

This storm is going to be very close for the area. I can see it go either way in regards to snow.

My rule of thumb is to err on the side of less snow, and it has usually been correct. We just don't live in a snow magnet. I would be more surprised to see 3-5 than to see all rain. Of course, I was wrong in Nov.