weatherpruf

Yes it could over perform for some of us too, we'll see. Not every storm is a disappointment; some are nice surprises. We are going to get some snow, this is the bottom line. For some it will be a really disruptive event, but for a lot of us just a nice snowfall.

Yes I was just 20 and working as a guard at the Foodtown bread warehouse; the guy I relieved that weekend had been stuck all night. I brought him a ham sandwich; didn't know he was Jewish. He took it anyway, we figured God would let it slide....we all got letters from the security firm praising our dedication and I used that for years when looking for a job. Back when that stuff mattered. No one will even given you a reference anymore. Legal issues.

This one though was never supposed to deliver much to a large part of the metro area west of the city; the 2015 one was expected to until the last second. And that could still happen, a bust west. Hope not. Just looked a little better for us last night over here. Still hoping for a decent event. Storms like Feb 2013 and Jan 2015 still managed to give us a good slap. Was hoping for a little better than that. We'll see.

Only on one, Boxing Day. The other ones have been mostly disappointing, but not disastrous. Boxing Day we were in the thick of it, but that wasn't a New England special. 3-6 is still on the table, but we hope to do better than that. A trip to the parking lot, which is as far as I made it, this morning at the market showed clear pandemonium. Not worth it, so I left. There is, after all, a pandemic going on.....

It moved west, it moved east...NWS still going 5-9 last I checked for my area just west of SI. Hope to do a little better, not worried about not seeing 2 feet. 10-12 would be great, pure gravy. At this point we have to let it just roll and see what happens.

Where are you expecting that gradient to set up? Warren or Sussex? Or even further south? Some maps show Somerset county....parts of it...

I see that now. Monmouth too. I'm just north. Minor details at this point; I'm close enough to the bay here in Woodbridge to see some wind, we're just not getting the two feet of snow. Official forecast is 4-7 from Upton, 4-11 from Mt Holly. Seems like a big spread there....

Same across the Kill from you.

NYC is still only progged for up to a foot and less to the west, but the winds may prompt a warning. Haven't checked Mt. Holly ( I'm on the cusp of both ) but because they encompass the Jersey shore it seems likely they will post something. I'll take the 8-12 if it happens over here in eastern Middlesex county if it happens and be happy with it, though we often underperform. Seriously, more than a foot is more than I need....the 18 inches last year was tough enough to deal with.

The two highest on Boxing Day were Brick and Elizabeth, at opposite ends of the state, though Brick considers itself central NJ ( it's south as far as I'm concerned ).

I'm not thinking we are getting those numbers here, but it looks like a big storm is possible......

To be clear, you expect this to have more effects to the west than Juno did? I was not aware it was so paltry up your way; I guess 7 inches was a win over here then. It did snow a lot that winter though, but nothing over about 9 inches and quite a few 4-5. Again, thanks for the analysis.

Further east than Juno and I can leave the snowblower in the shed....and I'm just across the Arthur Kill. The depictions of the various maps show around 6-8 for here, Juno was around 7 inches. I would think further east would be much less for this area. For me this isn't a tough forecast because I'm not in the thick of it; it's just a matter of will it be a nuisance or significant. Anything more would be gravy. My BIL in ME though, he is going to be screaming bloody murder at the notion of a big snow. Dude hates the stuff. Go figure.

I don't see much to change my initial thinking; 3-6 for my area, maybe a tad more, but this is very much like the Feb 2013 storm; close but no cigar. But we'll be happy to at least be somewhat in the game. Folks not far from here are going to get a huge event. I will live vicariously through them as I spend ten minutes blowing the 6 inches from my driveway.....and that's ok. Still time for a complete bust out here I guess. We'll see.

3-6? That's I think our best case scenario in these parts barring some big change.

What's to argue about? There are a range of possibilities, some of which don't look so great for a lot of us. At some point the pros will adjust the forecast; that may be later than sooner this time out.

I had some hope last night, but right now this is looking like a Boston storm to me. Some parts of NJ may do ok ( as it stands right now, as well as parts of LI ) but those of us just west of the city, I think we may be grasping at straws here. These kinds of winters, sorta like 2007, just don't favor my area. At least we haven't had a ton of rain like we did that year IIRC.

When I see " nowcast" I generally don't expect much for my area. Still hoping for a normal snow event. Clearly out of the big show, but maybe have some upper row seats.....

Where would y'all be without us North Jerseyans spending all our dough there every summer:) ( Don't answer that ). Seriously, when the fishing was good back in the day, Barnegat Bay, while never the fish factory that Delaware and Raritan were, had some of the finest fishing anywhere in the country. And it was largely sheltered from the worst winds. Used to catch winter flounder near the nuclear plant.....bluefish, weakfish, blowfish, even porgies at one time.

The city is 6-12; we are only a hair west and that could be a huge difference, but probably not that dramatic. It's looking like we'll see something significant. Maybe?

Well I believe it is still a Watch, so this leaves room for a bust I would think. But you've gotta let the public know.

Nothing is definite, even when it is underway, I have seen storms fizzle out. Rarely, and I mean like once or twice in my life, I have seen them exceed expectations locally.

A garden variety 4-8 is all some of us are hoping to get just west of the city, and that will be ok. Well, maybe not, but you get the idea.

You can't dismiss but the forecasts are out and they are expecting "heavy snow" for the city Friday into Sat. They could be very well be wrong, but they do this for a living, most of us don't.

WNYC is reporting an expectation of 6-12 in the city for Sat, so they must be getting their info from the same sources; been hearing it all morning. Based on the evolution of these types of storms I would expect my area to be closer to the 4-8 range, maybe a little higher, if things come together. Still a ways to go but it does sound to me like there is an expectation of a snow storm. The term " heavy snow" was utilized. FWIW.....I'm not able to analyze these models the way you are and maybe this is considered vendor news, but that's what I'm hearing in the "non-sensational" type media...haven't listened to WCBS or 1010 yet.