weatherpruf

my guess is it takes longer, in their view, to flip. something you can't really predict exactly.

pike's peak was a pimple back then.....

cnj. raritan river, rutgers area.

i noted earlier my ceiling over the years for this kind of setup was about 5-6 inches in my area. at least for the 35 years i've been paying attention.

gfs is trending north too, just read it on nws.

they could also get plain rain in the southern parts, but i don't know if that would help.

just read the updates for upton and mt holly and they see a northern trend, esp on the gfs. uncertain about how much mixing but mt holly flat out says the I 95 corridor is gonna ping, and there will be rain south. still going 8-12 but keeping cards close to the chest.

at least we don't have the dreaded coastal flood watch....usually indicating a flip to rains....

their justification in march 2017 was that if they dropped amounts people would not respect the sleet and go out and get hurt.

what? i've not heard that one.....wnyc reported 12-20 for some spots and maybe less than a foot for the city and nearby, with changes possible. pretty fair forecast.

i find lee goldberg and the guy on news 12 pretty good. no one is perfect. but news 12 was so good during ida i gained a lot of respect for them.

i'm too far north for the huggers, which hit monmouth and ocean then scoot to long island, and too far south for the northern storms. it has been this way my whole life.

that one actually had backend snows though... for me the classics are march 94 and march 2017. that 94 storm was brutal; like the house was being sandblasted. unlike this one, temps were more marginal so it was slushy on bottom; try shoveling 5-6 inches of that.....

that is right in line with my lived experience with these types of storms. sometimes people would chastise me and not believe what i was actually reporting, because a few miles makes a difference. i will not be surprised by it at all. hoping for better though. we still have changes ahead.

hell they're not even reliable after the fact...we talk about it all the time here; in 2006 rahway reported 28 inches; i measured 18 just across the border.

it speaks for itself....but i keep reading here that these kuchera maps are unreliable.

i'm saying that is what i have seen in 63 years. i leave open the possibilities. now that said, the situation is fluid and may be changing yet again, based on what some are reporting here.

i'mm rooting for you brother....sorry for the loss of your mall.....we're gonna miss it; saw Tron there in 1982.....

i'll go one better.... i don't think it will even be that much. why? in my lifetime, when lots of sleet was on the table, these big storms have topped out under 6, with the only exception being march 93, over 30 years ago and one of the biggest storms of the era. this one may be on that same level, though not the same kind of setup, and that could bring us to around 10-11 if enough snow falls. all my old skeptic friends at coffee this morning thought, seeing is believing. we're all retired, so we can afford to sit back with popcorn....but hey, i'm rooting for you, hope you're right. we could do with a good crush job. costco was cleaned out yesterday but wegman's had plenty of milk at 630 today....had to pick up some new flu and covid tests. bread was still a bit of an issue....i really don't think people need to panic, but if they need refills on meds, they should get them. they had plenty of salt too.

i wonder why....

Oh they will, but the damage has been done. In the past they have dug in and said so it was mostly sleet so what… see March 2017. At least this time we will go in knowing not to expect big snows. This crap will not be easy to clean and the ERs are gonna be busy. The biggest danger here is going to be for middle aged men.

From storm of the century in the media to 6-8… so when do we all end with a March 2017 situation….im never comfortable when sleet is on the table.

That seems to be nws is thinking.

So I did a careful read and it seems they think there will be plenty of sleet and maybe even plain rain, but a lot of snow first, 8-12 on the low end. They think this storm means business. That’s mt holly. Upton was like, yeah sleet but enough damage will have been done by then. .

More like terrified…. .