ryan1234

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. .

I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. .

If it's snowing on the Gulf Coast of Texas and Mexico, it better damn well snow here. Otherwise, I am packing up my stuff and moving to Mount Washington, NH.

Feb 2004 and Feb 2014 are also great examples. I was really young in 2004, but if I remember correctly, they were only calling for 4-6 inches. And Feb 2014 was supposed to miss us to the south, I believe. Edit: I would gladly take a half of foot and be satisfied for the rest of the winter. I know, I know:

Thank you! I understand this a board to discuss weather, even in the long range. But this board is getting muddled up with all these screen shots/clown maps at hour 300. I wish we could have a separate topic for the clown maps, 300 hour GFS maps, ect.

Nighttime twisters are no bueno. I hope people have their cell phones turned all the way up.

Looks like some major Lowland snows for the Pac NW.

There was one winter, I believe 2009- where we had multiple clippers bring us a couple of inches, each time. I may have the date wrong, though? One nice thing about clippers is the ratio's tend to be a lot higher.

Well, while I know a lot of you would prefer cold and dry over rain/warmth. I for one, am thankful for the rain. It keeps those wildfires at bay and it also helps us going into Spring. We were in a pretty bad drought a few months ago and that has pretty much been erased.

I am surprised, that you, a meteorologist can call winter over on the 3rd of Janurary. I have a lot of respect for your opinion on this board. But saying we will get nothing is just irresponsible, almost like Glenn Burns calling a destructive ice storm 1.5 weeks out.

Sorry, but I have a very difficult time buying any LR model, including indices, at this juncture. They were awful these last few years. Last winter we had all these in our favor and nothing worked out. (With the exception being the early Dec snow.) We still have a solid 8 weeks left. All it takes is one storm to put us above average.

Spoke too soon, and this appears to cover a pretty large area. Still awaiting the graphic.

I'm surprised that there are basically no watches for the Piedmont of NC and SC. Only the extreme northern counties, thus far. Especially considering the southern portion of the line and the discrete ones in GA look a lot more eerie than the northern portion. Of course, that could change.

The sun has been peaking out for a solid 4 hours. I’m currently sitting at 83 and the heat index is 87. Never thought I’d be saying that on Halloween. Definitely not good as these storms look to occur during peak heating. I have a sinking feeling that things are going to get pretty nasty. Definitely a spooky situation. .

I think a lot also depends on how much the instability is available. I have seen many breaks in the clouds in the CLT metro. If I recall, it was supposed to be cloudy all day. But yes, it's more difficult to get severe weather after sunset, but it's not unheard of. Especially with all the other ingredients that are coming together. It'll be interesting to see what the SPC does for their next update. The HRRR model that Brad posted shows some impressive rotation in these storms.

The NAM looks nasty. But as has been aforementioned, is it trustworthy? Should we get a separate thread going for tonight/tomorrow though? Or are we waiting to see what happens with the later guidance? .

I couldn't agree more! Last weekend was a huge bust for my area. It's too bad too. I know models aren't perfect, but when severe weather bust like that, it causes people to lose faith and interest in severe weather. I just feel like when the time comes for another outbreak, people are going to be unprepared. Heck, the Joplin tornado occurred on a Moderate risk day. I really wish people would take the time to educate themselves on tornadoes in the Carolina's. Brad P. posted an awesome and very informative video on tornadoes in our region/state.

That’s definitely not something you want to see. The NAM may very well be onto something. If so it’s time to batten down the hatches and prepare some significant weather. GSP had a pretty good discussion and even mentioned they wouldn’t be surprised seeing the enhanced risk spread westward. .

I just saw that as well. Some of those cells entering the southern piedmont look to be discrete as well. Not a good look. Does anyone have any insight as far as Robert(WX South) does with severe weather? He called this potentially historic. .

I’d be surprised to a moderate risk, given instability won’t be great. It’s definitely a high shear, low cape setup. Although WX South thinks otherwise. We shall see I guess. .

Yeah, wow. I just read what WX South said and he is making this system sound downright ominous. I guess we will wait and see. .

Well, much like I expected the enhanced area shifted east for tomorrow. I guess the question is how much destabilization occurs tomorrow. The tornado threat doesn't seem that high as of now, but I guess that is subject to change? A couple of you all mentioned the NAM as showing something pretty nasty. Today's threat across LA/MS looks downright ominous though. The ongoing question is, will that transpire east tomorrow?

Definitely, agree. However, if this thing speeds up, it might end up catching many by surprise. But this might up being one of those I-85 specials. If I were within 50 miles of 85, from just east of the AL/GA line to Charlotte and up to the Triad... I'd be ever so slightly nervous. Our area is well overdue for an outbreak.

They make Saturday’s event seem more of an issue, than Sunday’s. That’s kinda surprising. Although, timing of the day may make it less of an issue than areas west of the Triangle. I definitely wouldn’t let me guard down anywhere in the Carolina’s for Sunday. It’s quite an impressive setup. .

Another good read for Sunday's event. Very active period upcoming. Once again, I feel like GSP AFD are the best in the country. Compared to many others. They really do a great job! Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 253 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region will approach from the west on Friday and stall across the area on Saturday. A second stronger system will bring storms to the area on Sunday and Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 pm EDT: A Wind Advisory has been posted for tonight at elevations above 3500 feet in and around the Great Smoky Mountains. There is good consensus of 50+ kt 850 mb flow in and near the Smokies which should provide for decent high elevation gusts despite the warm advection regime. Weather conditions are expected to deteriorate through the near-term forecast period as Atlantic and then Gulf moisture begin to converge on the area. The stacked low pressure system over the central plains this afternoon will migrate slowly over the upper Midwest tonight through Friday. Meanwhile, boundary layer moisture will increase in the southeasterly low-level flow tonight between offshore high pressure and the strong cold front advancing into the MS River Valley. Upslope cloudiness will quickly develop, similar to this morning, but deeper moisture and better forcing will permit blossoming rain showers, especially along the Blue Ridge around midnight, and eventually across much of the area by daybreak. Anticipate that the upslope precipitation will maximize overnight into Friday morning, but with PoPs then transitioning into the piedmont through the afternoon as deep layer southwesterly flow sets up. In addition, upper-level divergence will improve from the west over the mountains Friday afternoon to keep PoPs going there, while instability and weak triggers will provide for better convective coverage along the I-77 corridor through the latter part of the day. At peak heating, sbCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg are likely east of the mountains, but mid-levels remain fairly warm so thunderstorms should be mostly garden variety. Anticipate very warm mins some 15 degree or more above climo overnight, with maximum temperatures one to two categories above climo despite the clouds Friday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 200 PM Thu: As a mature low pressure system moves across the central Great Lakes Friday night, a cold front will lay out along the southern Appalachians per NAM/GFS. The EC depicts it making it past the mountains, but the general expectation is that the front`s progression into our area will be limited by the deep ridge over the Southeast coast and western Atlantic, and as the next system develops over Texas along the southern end of the front. Thus, we effectively will be in the warm sector of the Great Lakes system overnight into Saturday. Some degree of elevated instability will persist during this time, within a juicy springtime airmass characterized by Piedmont/valley temps in the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. Except for relatively weak isentropic upglide, however, there may not be much of a triggering mechanism. A low PoP (and in many areas thunder) will remain in the fcst. Deep-layer shear still will be in play on account of a modest upper jet, so the potential does exist for a couple of stronger cells producing marginally severe hail and wind, particularly during peak heating Saturday afternoon. Instability will wane again Saturday night. The aforementioned Texas system will move into the mid-Mississippi Valley, tracking along the Ohio River Sunday. The base of the parent shortwave will swing across the Deep South. As 850mb flow increases ahead of it, precip again will blossom along the Escarpment. Instability will redevelop after daybreak Sunday, with similarly warm/moist sfc conditions. This is particularly concerning given the increasing 850mb flow, culminating in the 50-60 kt LLJ appearing likely to translate across the area as sfc based instability peaks. 0-3km shear accordingly will be similar in magnitude, and with hodographs above that layer being fairly straight, QLCS segments appear to be a preferred storm mode. SHERB values calculated from the GFS peak above 1 across the Piedmont. Timing differences previously had limited our confidence, but the latest 12z ECMWF is a little faster than the previous run, bringing it more in line with the other synoptic models. There remain some differences in how backed sfc winds will be, which keeps confidence low as to the degree of tornado threat we will experience. Nonetheless we anticipate parts of our CWFA will continue to be highlighted for severe risk (esp. damaging wind) on the SPC outlooks as we approach Sunday. As the low moves by to our north Sunday night, the cold front will push through the area, and prog soundings suggest we won`t totally be out of the woods for severe weather until that occurs; it is possible we will have two rounds of activity, one during peak heating and another immediately along the cold front. Of course the latter will depend on how much energy remains following the first round. Much cooler temps will return to the mtns behind the front Monday morning; precip most likely will end before any of it is able to change to snow or produce rime ice. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 115 PM EDT Thursday: With the timing of the dry slot overspreading the region still slated for Sunday night, progressive drying within the post-frontal airmass is on tap for Monday. Within the well-mixed environment, max temperatures will average a few deg F below the mid-April climo. Atop the SE CONUS for Tuesday, expect rising upper heights and the passage of a llvl ridge axis providing another dry day. Developing llvl return flow will boost maximums well into the 70s. Throughout Wednesday, as energy ripples eastward from the Southern Plains and interacts with an increasing gulf moisture tap, widespread convective rainfall is progged to blossom acrs the gulf states. The preferred EC mass fields solution keeps pcpn chances west/sw of the cwfa into Wednesday evening, so sensible wx for us should be limited to just an increase in clouds and a further boost to maximums. With deeper level forcing impinging upon the region next Thursday, robust deep convection has the potential to become widespread, stay tuned.