PrinceFrederickWx

Will be adding this to my bookmarks, thanks! I use this page a lot- you guys probably already have this, but if you don't, its got a lot of good data: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html

I figured not getting a subfreezing high in DJF (yes, I mean 31 and under) would be more common at DCA than BWI. Other than 31/32, the only other one I found was 97/98 (which was tied for 8th hottest winter overall). But there may be others, I can't check them all. Some of BWI's hottest winters and the first subfreezing high they had (also included the super nino of 72/73 out of curiosity, even though its way down on the list at 25th hottest): 32/33 - 12/16 (23 degrees) 48/49 - 12/26 (25 degrees) 49/50 - 2/26 (31 degrees) 72/73 - 12/17 (30 degrees) 01/02 - 12/30 (30 degrees) 11/12 - 1/4 (31 degrees)

This is something else I've been thinking about but don't have enough info- how often do we go through an entire winter without at least one subfreezing high? Looking at some of BWI's hottest winters I can't find any that didn't have at least one for DJF except 31/32 (and even that winter had several in March). So I can't find any for DJFM at all. Although not having any subfreezing highs may not correlate to an overall torch winter, so I could be looking in the wrong places. I'd assume DCA has had several without. Still early though- and BWI might get one next week?

BWI already had a T in December, but if you're looking to track snow futility, the only January that ever had a 0 (not even a T) was 1937. Its still early, but we're at zero so far and no snow in sight. Should probably mention that 1937 really delivered in February and March and was an above average winter though.

BWI would only need a +1.5 departure in both January and February to tie for top ten hottest winter.

Some more stats for BWI- this was the 2nd hottest November-December period. The top ten are listed below (in degrees). We came close to beating 1931, and there's a huge gap between 2nd and 3rd. You'll see some familiar recent years in this list too: 1931: 50.2 2015: 50.0 1946: 47.4 1994 & 1941: 47.3 1948: 46.9 1881: 46.6 1889 & 2011: 46.5 2001: 46.4 This was also the 10th wettest December at BWI, with 5.85"

December finished at 49.0 degrees (+12.3) at BWI. I don't have a lot of time today but just at a quick glance, this was the hottest DJF month ever and would also be 12th hottest March. Would also be an above average November.

I can't believe DCA's only had a zero in Dec. only once. Its happened five times at BWI.

Yeah, it looked like the pattern finally flipped in March- below average temps and 2.7" of snow. Had it not been for March it would've been a near-shutout. I remember in another thread awhile back (I think it was in WestminsterDeathband's outlook thread) that '31/'32 still had the hottest DJFM record despite the cold March. '11/'12 was the opposite and took 2nd place mostly because of the extreme March. Getting the hottest DJFM might be more doable if we'd somehow wind up torching the whole winter but I'd have to look at it closer.

I don't know about DCA but BWI, despite being 3 degrees ahead, would still have to get somewhere around a +11.5 dep. (3rd hottest) in January just to keep pace. And then Feb. '32 was also 4th hottest (+7 dep.). I guess anything's possible but it sounds like long range isn't showing warmth anywhere near December levels.

The most anomalous month at BWI is January 1932 at +14.5. We're not getting that high this month, but I assume Dec. 2015 will be in the top ten of positive departures of any month though. Edit: you all ever look at some of the departures in 1931-32? Crazy stuff. I think Sept. 1931 - Feb. 1932 may be the most anomalous heat in modern history. We'll never beat 31/32 for hottest winter lol

This is currently ranked as the 12th hottest March... we might have a shot at top 10 but I haven't run the numbers.

Its all about the dewpoint... 73 with sunny blue skies and a dewpoint of 40 is awesome. 73 with a dewpoint of 66 at 3am after a rainfall, with bugs and worms everywhere? -not so much lol

I use "hot" just to denote records- I like to have my page consistent. It gets sloppy when I write "hottest July" but "warmest December". Honestly some of the dewpoints and highest minimums felt quite uncomfortable to me- though technically not "hot" I guess.

Here's what I got so far on my webpage: 3 record highs broken and 2 tied in December 2015 2 record high minimums broken in December 2015 Hottest December ever Tied for 1st, most number of 70+ degree days (5) in December (2015) I'll post some analysis in January once we get the final departure number.

I love how BWI fell to 61 right before midnight just to screw us out of the monthly high minimum by one degree. Then we missed the record high by one degree today too lol We got daily record high and high minimum for yesterday, and will get high minimum for today too. Next up is breaking the record high on Sunday and then breaking the record for number of 70+ highs in December. I think we've pretty much clinched hottest December ever now. Merry Christmas to all of you!

Oh and BWI is gonna miss the record high by one degree... ugh

Just my opinion, but if we wind up with a +11 or +12 departure or something like that, I'd say this month is the more anomalous one and least likely to happen again. Shameless plug- I have a lot of the February 2015 BWI stats in the link in my signature btw

BWI just got more rain in one hourly obs (1.26") than the daily record (1.04")- good lord!

So looking at everything I think the following records are in play at BWI (hard to keep all these straight lol): Daily record high: Dec. 23, 24, 25 Daily record high minimum: Dec. 24, 25 Monthly record high: Dec. 24

Wow I had no idea 1998 had that many- thanks for looking this up!

Something else I was wondering but don't have enough data- what's the record for most number of 70+ degree days in December (and also any winter month) for BWI?

For BWI, using the 1981-2010 normals, I think 1/26/1950 might hold the record for biggest positive departure- I calculated a +37 departure for that day. 12/22/2013 was a +32 departure and the next best one I know of. For negative departure, I got -37 for 2/10/1899 and -33 for 1/19/1994. There may be others but that's the best I'm aware of.

My new goal is to tie or beat the monthly record high (77 degrees) on Christmas Eve. LWX forecast is up to 73 now.

I looked up BWI and found the biggest gap between #1 and #2 hottest of any month is 1.7 degrees between Nov. 1931 (54.7 degrees) and Nov. 1948 (53 degrees). Here's the gap in degrees between #1 and #2 in all 12 months: Jan 0.5 Feb 0.2 Mar 1.1 Apr 0.8 May 0.3 Jun 0.9 Jul 0.2 Aug 0.3 Sep 1.0 Oct 0.3 Nov 1.7 Dec 0.3