AnEndlessMaze

It's time for the 6th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Everyone is encouraged to play- including lurkers, new members and people outside the region! You are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) for the four major airports: BWI, DCA, IAD and RIC. For the tiebreaker, you will choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury (SBY) or Lynchburg (LYH). Please choose only one- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports (this link explains the calculation in more detail, for anyone who needs clarification: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50428-mid-atlantic-winter-2017-18-snowfall-contest/?do=findComment&comment=4656575 ). Please use the following format when posting your forecast: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Monday, November 30 at 11:59pm. You are welcome to edit your forecast as many times as you want until the deadline. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2015-16: @Shadowzone 2016-17: @Stormpc 2017-18: @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide Good luck everyone!

System total: 3.18" Monthly total: 8.63"

1.31” so far. Just a reminder that any extreme events on October 29 automatically means the winter will be a turd (Snowtober, Sandy, etc.)

A good rule of thumb is: whatever the models show for rain, move the decimal once to the left for Germantown, and once to the right for southern MD.

All of the big winters are like that though- even 13/14 and 09/10, both of which had long stretches of warm, snowless in between storms. We never do sustained cold and snowcover in this region so the question to me is more about why in the big years does everything seem to line up at just exactly the correct times over and over.

I understand it, as it's been the main problem I'm having when thinking about this winter. For the most part I'm leaning towards snowless, but there's some similarities I see with 95/96. My question with 95/96 though has always been if it was a 1/1,000 outlier event or something that's more likely given the right circumstances. It's never made sense to me for Mid-Atlantic snowfall vs. ENSO to have a bimodal distribution in weak La Nina and moderate El NIno- seems like one of those would flatten out over time as the sample grows larger (and the last 25 years seems to indicate the weak La Nina will be the one that flattens). ...anyway, for those that have messaged me, the snowfall contest will be posted early November. Should be interesting...

This seems like it’s going to be yet another overperformer IMBY. LWX called for 1/2” of rain today and we just blew right past that with no end in sight. If we can just hold this pattern for a few more weeks...

I just looked up by accident towards the north as soon as I stepped outside and already saw a Draconid meteor. This is gonna be a positive bust for once Mars, Saturn and Jupiter all look good- I might be out here all night!

I, too, avoid fast food and and am very active, but avoiding refined sugar is difficult as they hide it everywhere now (even in “healthy” foods).

Nice map- the summer creep into September is for real here.

Forecast was for sunny but instead it’s been cloudy all day and now I’m getting an isolated shower that’s not even on radar. This year...

2.4” since yesterday- here we go again.

We’ll never have a negative temp departure for September again in my lifetime (well... I guess eventually this will just be the average).

Can you believe I got completely shut out today? That only means one thing... winter is coming.

It’s a bigger sample size than the mostly worthless indices you all track and it has a 100% correlation so far. I called for a shutout back in October in Weather53’s other thread anyway.

Every November that has less than 2” of rain at BWI/DCA has a winter that turns out to be a dumpster fire. It’s a better leading indicator than any model at this point.

You should make it top seven at BWI so once this winter is done we can have 97/98 and 16/17 still on the list. Five of the top seven in the last 22 years lol

This is anecdotal, but I feel like we've lost all the minor 2-4" events I grew up with as a kid in the 80's and 90's. It's either WSW events or nothing. But I'm like you, hunting for the big storms.

I used this: https://www.weather.gov/media/lwx/climate/bwisnow.pdf And the monthly reports here: https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx And they both totaled 3.0; however, LWX has never updated their top five least snowiest winters chart and I don’t know why.

BWI only had 3.0” in 2016/17, which would place it #4 on that list.

I thought we had a coastal that looked like this in late January 2017 with a very similar setup that did indeed end up being all rain. I may have the year wrong though.

I have no problem with climo storms. But it’s hilarious how some people love to talk down to us, but then in the rare instance when we’re the bull’s eye, they have a mental breakdown posting how IT’S NOT FAIR!! I remember 1/17 and 1/18.

Yeah... until 2021.

Last place right here

Tied for 11th hottest October at BWI.