Allsnow

1 minute ago, ag3 said:

 

Agree, but the odds are against us. Even years with 1"-2" or lower for December, the good winters were rare. Not the norm.

 

How much did we get in December 2014? 

@bluewave r you still confident in a snowstorm before January? Models break the pattern down quickly 

Here comes the piggy 

Eps snow mean is pathetic for the entire run. Pattern breaks down and the vortex moves into Ak 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Yep o well

Shit happens 

I told you this wasn’t a epic look 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

My wife last night asked me if we are going to get a big snowstorm next weekend because she saw on twitter that a snowstorm is coming 

People need to stop hyping this far out.

Probably get to Christmas now without a inch of snow in Brooklyn 

Euro is Over Chicago and torches the east coast…

brutal 

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

GFS an outlier.  Given the pattern this month so far, the cutter/inland solution could be correct...

Yup. You want the gfs out to sea or way south at day 7

Ukie is a cutter into the lakes 

2 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

It will be better than the CMC no matter what...

 

Ugly 

CMC over MN 

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

 at least it's something exciting...

These squall lines have become so common around the winter solstice lately….brutal 

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

Icon is a blizzard for Minnesota. 

Squall line for LI 

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Don't look at the ICON at 168 - holy cow 

Torchmas 

Looks like the pattern breaks down before NYE. Pac flow starts to dominate as we loose the epo. Hopefully we score or this was a huge waste 

Just now, MJO812 said:

We have been screwed so many times with a negative PNA

Nina going to Nina 

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good

Rather take my chance with an improving pac.

Facts 

@MJO812 getting closer to 12/20 with no snow in Brooklyn 

25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agreed. I think our northern suburbs can do really well with the 23rd storm as the air mass ahead will be a little colder. 

After this storm the Arctic is unleashed. 

I really feel that suppression will be our biggest concern after Christmas

We improve the pac but loose the Atlantic. I don’t like how the snow means are greater out in the ocean 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ensembles looked pretty good to me. 

They’ve looked good since the end of November 

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

That's raises a good question, what was the best blocking period since 2010? For me thinking

1.) March April 2018

2.) February 2021

3.) February March 2013

4.) January 2016

February 21. 
 

March 2018 was amazing but would have been better for Mby a month earlier 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

So you don't think the great pattern that people predicted is not coming?

I think another cutter before Xmas then hope the pac can give us a decent storm. If we have no blocking then we risk cold dry before we reshuffle in January. I don’t see a great pattern coming anymore. 

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Yup - I think Forky is going to be 100% correct on this one (he always stated would be after Christmas).

 

Blocking is gone after Christmas….pac would need to do all the lifting 

1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's closer to a SWFE/Miller B than a cutter. At least northern parts of the area still have a shot at snow.

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Miller B

My point is that this time last week we all thought we needed to look past fridays event. The models had it cutting into MN and torching the metro. If it ends up producing significant snow close to nyc consider that a win. 

34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

We had a coating on the grass.  Gone now.    Let's hope we get something.  Friday looks like all rain so we are kicking the can forward....

Friday was always supposed to be a cutter. It wasn’t until after the 15th did things look colder.