Allsnow

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Give it time to connect those blues lol. What a winter. Hopefully we can get a few events before it goes to crap again.

PAC jet retracts and the dateline ridge forms which dumps the blues into CA. Yikes 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Epicosity

 

Patience 

Disappointing can kick on the ensembles overnight 

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The long range EPS and GEFS continue to underestimate the Pacific Jet and the -PNA trough near the West Coast day 11-15. So a continuation of the day 11-15 forecasts struggling with the fast Pacific flow. These week 2 forecasts have been getting pushed back since late November.

New runs for Jan 10

Old runs

 

18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Next timeframe which has been showing up is mid month for a coastal . This might have legs with the MJO going into 8-1.

AO still looks favorable.  The models should respond more favorable if the MJO is correct .

-pna +nao and +ao on all the ensembles now in the 11-15 day. January might be toast now for snowfall 

Poor showing by Boston weather for the winter classic 

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

That winter had 2 minor events (though maybe not for South jersey)

We didn’t have a plowable event that winter in central nj. The only other winter in my lifetime not to have at least one storm of 2+ on the pavement was 97-98 

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

All month ? 

Yup. Then rna for February and it’s over 

35 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The snowfall so far has been all elevation and lake effect dependent.

 

 

I expect similar outcome this month with all the pac air 

13 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Exactly.  Posts like this make me laugh! From mid November till TODAY, we've had 9.5" of snow. Believe it or not. There are still small piles of snow from shoveling and the plows. 9.5" inches in basically just December,  is not a bad start.

Ewr nyc lga JFK phl all have a trace 

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter cancel?

When Bluewave starts to talk snow for us is when we should expect it 

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

There is no way to know what the weather is going to be beyond the effective 10 to sometimes 15 day model limit. All we know is that the models have been pushing back the good pattern further out into time since late November. Just look at the model discussions at the beginning of the December thread. We can remember some of the longer range runs showing a possible snowstorm that turned out to be a record cutter right before Christmas. While the models missed the magnitude of cold behind the cutter, it only lasted 3 days. Then the current warm up beat expectations. At least the models were in good agreement longer range on the extreme block north of Alaska which drove that cold.
 

Fast Pacific flow patterns can be tricky for snow even if we can sneak in a few closer to average days in an otherwise mild pattern. We usually have the issue of primary lows running to the Great Lakes. Then the secondary low can get suppressed to our south. Plus models may keep showing snow chances day 6-10 that can’t make it to under 5 days. 

This 

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

You can do so

The pattern is resembling more of El Nino as the pattern goes on.

The pattern is modeled to get better with the mjo going into 8.

 

Go With the least snowiest and warmest ensemble….

@bluewave saying don’t buy into any snow possibility until things change….he is usually spot on and the last to hype a snow event. Go with what he is saying 

Met fight!!!!

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps failed with the colder pattern in December  behind the gefs .

What makes you think it's right when the MJO progression is going to become favorable?

The mjo is dragging its feet in p7. Even if we get into 8-1 their is no promise it’s strong enough to change the pac 

6 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think we had sunny conditions for our last January 70° back in 2020. 
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jan
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Highest Max Temperature	Missing Count
1	1950	74	0
2	2007	72	0
3	2020	70	0
-	2002	70	0
-	1998	70	0
-	1932	70	0
4	1974	69	0
5	2000	68	0
-	1967	68	0
6	2017	67	0
-	2005	67	0
-	1995	67	0
7	2013	66	0
-	2008	66	0
-	1993	66	0
-	1990	66	0
-	1975	66	0
-	1937	66	0
8	2016	65	0
-	1973	65	0
-	1972	65

 

Ugh, my mistake it was 2020. What a awful winter that was for the entire area 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Speaking of puke.. stomach flu has crushed me since last night .EPS keeps pushing back . Hope wrong , worry right . 

Feel better 

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The Euro, GFS, and CMC, all have 850 mb temperatures in the +10 C to +12C range. Those were the 850 mb temperatures when we made it to the low 70s in early January 2007. But that year had nearly full sun. So the models currently have mid 60s with plenty of clouds. So more sun than forecast would allow us to make a run on 70°.

How about January 2019? More Sun? 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray starting to work on fantasy team draft this weekend seems a sure bet with it all but over if EPS right 

PAC puke through day 11 

Eps is straight pac puke through day 11

6 minutes ago, Winterweatherlover said:

Thats borderline ok for snow chances in NYC in January and def ok for snow chances north and west. 

Good luck 

18 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It was always supposed to cool down at the end of next week after the 1 week blowtorch pattern. But the cooldown doesn't look like a big deal. Look at the Euro. The cooldown probably won't even get us all the way down to normal temps. Still a mild pattern with no sign of any major cold. 

Yup. Instead of +20 it will be +5-10

We might break 70 Wednesday if the euro is correct 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

5 month spring incoming?

The forum knows my feeling…. 
 

just nice to have weather like this in December…last weekend was too cold