weathermedic

Up to 69 at my station on a light ENE wind. Sun shining through the clouds.

Looks like the intensity is decreasing somewhat as the sun sets

89 dew of 49 by me at the north "inland" part of Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn 

Wind just flipped to SSW and temp is down to 68 now

Down to 60 as of 4:10pm on a SE wind

Up to 77 here now with more sun shining through the overcast

Up to 74 now.

Up to 72 with mostly cloudy skies.

.45 of rain so far here at my station

OKX sticking with a mostly rain scenario at the coast.

From this morning’s AFD:

By Monday night, the upper level low forces the coastal low to
rapidly deepen as it passes near the 40N 70 W benchmark. Some model
guidance actually has a separate area of low pressure develop
over the area in the apex of the inverted trough. This will
result in widespread moderate to locally heavy precipitation
Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Rain along the coast
may be heavy at times through the night. This is likely when a
bulk of the precipitation from the event falls with coastal
areas possibly seeing as much as 1.5 inches of rainfall from
sunset Monday to sunrise Tuesday.

There remains a considerable amount of uncertainty as to how the
transition to snowfall occurs of the northwestern fringe of the
cyclone. The thinking is that mainly rain Monday evening
transitions to a rain/snow mix and then primarily snow for the
Lower Hudson Valley and portions of interior NE NJ and W
Connecticut. As strengthening NW winds advect marginally cool
air from the north, the rain/snow transition may make some
southward progress toward daybreak Tuesday.

There remains a possibility that precipitation for much of the
area will be a mix of rain and snow by Tuesday morning and
through much of the day on Tuesday with temperatures expected to
be in the middle 30s for the coastal areas. As precipitation
lightens Tuesday afternoon and evening, the upper level trough
passes over the area allowing for a more favorable profile for
plain snow for much of the area. Any accumulations at this point
should be minimal.

I just passed JFK. It’s a snow/rain mix. Temp down to 36

From OKX evening AFD:

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Guidance has converged for the weak and quick moving low
pressure system that will be moving out of the upper midwest and
passing to the south of the region tonight. The trend has been
for a colder and slightly farther southern track, with mainly
snow across the area late this evening and overnight. There may
be a brief rain/snow mix at the onset, and transition to snow as
the atmospheric column cools. Precipitation will be generally
light with weak upper support with a flat and broad shortwave
moving through the area. Timing of the precipitation is also
rather consistent with onset around 1000 PM and ending by 500
AM, with the bulk falling in a 3 hour window midnight to 300 AM.
The onset may be delayed as the lower layers are dry, and will
have to be overcome. The band of snowfall is also rather narrow,
with a sharp gradient of no snow to 1 to 1 1/2 inches of
snowfall. And locations to the northeast and east likely see no
to very little precipitation. Therefore, any minor shift in the
track of the low will have impacts to where the heaviest snow
will occur. With the ending time of snow toward Tuesday morning,
the morning commute will be impacted and this is highlighted in
the hazardous weather outlook (HWOOKX).

Sleeting in midtown

58 at my station

2 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs maybe. Euro still damn cold 

NWS OKX AFD:

The northern branch of the polar jet becomes the dominant
stream this period as a quick shot of arctic air arrives Friday
into Saturday. However, global models while still very cold,
have trended a bit warmer. This will be the coldest airmass
since Christmas eve with temperatures Friday night and Saturday
about 20 degrees below normal. The arctic cold front slips
through Friday morning with the coldest air arriving Friday
night with 85h temps approaching -25C. With no downstream block
over the north Atlantic, this will be a fleeting airmass. In
addition, with strong NW winds behind the cold front, gusts of
25 to 35 mph will produce wind chills likely at advisory levels
for much of the area. The threat for warning level criteria
inland is diminishing. Lows Friday night inland are forecast to
drop to around zero with the single digits to around 10 at the
coast. Highs Saturday are forecast to range from the mid and
upper teens inland, to around 20 at the coast. This is about 3
to 5 degrees warmer than 24h ago.

NWS forecasting a low of 33 for the city tonight. It's 40 degrees now at 8:40pm with a mostly overcast sky. Don't think we cool down to 33. Maybe 37-38. Precip gets in mid-late morning. Temps will be rising by then. Still can snow but not holding my breath.

Seems like the snow shower/flurries over parts of the city keeps on back building over the same area.

Just had some sleet mixed in here with the rain at work in southwestern Nassau County just east of JFK airport.

.35 inches of rain so far and 50 degrees at my station....early November weather 

A glimmer of hope? From Judah Cohen via Twitter:

Looks to me we're on track for another #PolarVortex stretching event for 2nd week of January that typically delivers more wintry weather to Eastern US but could there be more?

54 with a southerly wind off the water at my station.

Any snow reports from the north fork area of Suffolk County? Radar shows it’s been snowing from ocean/sound effect bands all night and still is.

Barometer at my station down to 985mb

1.01 inches of rain at my station. Waiting for the arctic front. 

Many locations forecasted to have moderate to major coastal flooding:

Time of high total tides are approximate to the nearest hour.

PECONIC RIVER AT RIVERHEAD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.6 FT, MODERATE 6.3 FT, MAJOR 7.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.2 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/10 PM   2.7/ 3.2  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/10 AM   3.7/ 4.2   0.4/ 0.9   0.1/ 0.6    1-2      NONE
 23/01 AM   3.9/ 4.4   0.5/ 1.0   1.7/ 2.2     2       NONE
 23/11 AM   6.9/ 7.4   3.5/ 4.0   3.1/ 3.6    0-2    MOD-MAJ

ORIENT HARBOR AT ORIENT POINT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.7 FT, MODERATE 5.7 FT, MAJOR 6.7 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/08 PM   1.9/ 2.3  -1.1/-0.7  -0.3/ 0.2     1       NONE
 22/09 AM   2.8/ 3.4  -0.2/ 0.3  -0.6/-0.1    1-2      NONE
 22/09 PM   2.3/ 2.8  -0.7/-0.2   0.1/ 0.6     2       NONE
 23/10 AM   5.7/ 6.2   2.7/ 3.2   2.3/ 2.8    3-6   MODERATE

FLAX POND AT OLD FIELD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 9.2 FT, MODERATE 10.2 FT, MAJOR 12.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.9 FT, MODERATE 2.9 FT, MAJOR 4.9 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/09 PM   6.2/ 6.7  -1.1/-0.7  -0.2/ 0.2     1       NONE
 22/09 AM   7.4/ 7.9   0.1/ 0.6  -0.2/ 0.2     1       NONE
 22/10 PM   7.2/ 7.7  -0.2/ 0.3   0.5/ 1.0     2       NONE
 23/10 AM  11.0/11.5   3.7/ 4.2   3.2/ 3.7     0     MODERATE

GREAT SOUTH BAY AT LINDENHURST NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.5 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/08 PM   1.3/ 1.8  -0.3/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/08 AM   1.6/ 2.0   0.0/ 0.5   0.1/ 0.6     1       NONE
 23/09 AM   3.9/ 4.4   2.2/ 2.7   2.3/ 2.8    1-3     MAJOR

GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WEST SAYVILLE NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.0 FT, MODERATE 3.5 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/09 PM   1.1/ 1.6  -0.3/ 0.2   0.2/ 0.8     1       NONE
 22/09 AM   1.4/ 1.9   0.0/ 0.5   0.2/ 0.8    1-2      NONE
 23/10 AM   3.7/ 4.2   2.2/ 2.7   2.5/ 3.0    1-3    MOD-MAJ

GREAT SOUTH BAY AT WATCH HILL/FIRE ISLAND NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 3.1 FT, MODERATE 3.6 FT, MAJOR 4.1 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.6 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/09 PM   0.9/ 1.4  -0.7/-0.2   0.0/ 0.5     1       NONE
 22/10 AM   1.2/ 1.7  -0.3/ 0.2  -0.2/ 0.2    1-2      NONE
 23/10 AM   3.5/ 4.0   2.0/ 2.5   2.1/ 2.6     0     MODERATE

MORICHES BAY AT EAST MORICHES NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.4 FT, MODERATE 5.4 FT, MAJOR 6.4 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 3.0 FT, MAJOR 4.0 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/07 PM   1.7/ 2.2  -0.8/-0.2   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/08 AM   2.2/ 2.7  -0.2/ 0.3   0.0/ 0.5    1-2      NONE
 22/08 PM   2.1/ 2.6  -0.3/ 0.2   0.5/ 1.0     2       NONE
 23/08 AM   5.2/ 5.7   2.7/ 3.2   2.8/ 3.4    2-3    MODERATE

SHINNECOCK BAY AT PONQUOQUE NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.9 FT, MODERATE 5.9 FT, MAJOR 6.9 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   2.7/ 3.2  -0.6/-0.1   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   3.6/ 4.1   0.4/ 0.9   0.0/ 0.5     1       NONE
 22/07 PM   3.1/ 3.6  -0.2/ 0.3   0.5/ 1.0     2       NONE
 23/07 AM   6.2/ 6.8   3.1/ 3.6   2.6/ 3.1     3     MODERATE

FORT POND BAY AT MONTAUK NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 4.5 FT, MODERATE 5.3 FT, MAJOR 7.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 2.0 FT, MODERATE 2.8 FT, MAJOR 4.5 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/07 PM   1.9/ 2.3  -0.7/-0.2   0.1/ 0.6     1       NONE
 22/07 AM   2.7/ 3.2   0.2/ 0.8  -0.2/ 0.3    1-2      NONE
 22/08 PM   2.2/ 2.7  -0.3/ 0.2   0.4/ 0.9    2-3      NONE
 23/08 AM   5.2/ 5.7   2.7/ 3.2   2.2/ 2.7    4-5    MODERATE

ROCKAWAY INLET NY NEAR FLOYD BENNETT FIELD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.3 FT, MODERATE 8.3 FT, MAJOR 9.3 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.7 FT, MODERATE 2.7 FT, MAJOR 3.7 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/05 PM   4.6/ 5.1  -1.1/-0.6   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   6.1/ 6.6   0.5/ 1.0  -0.2/ 0.3     1       NONE
 22/07 PM   5.2/ 5.7  -0.3/ 0.2   0.5/ 1.0    2-3      NONE
 23/07 AM   8.7/ 9.2   3.1/ 3.6   2.2/ 2.7    4-5    MODERATE

JAMAICA BAY AT INWOOD NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 7.5 FT, MODERATE 8.2 FT, MAJOR 9.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.3 FT, MODERATE 2.0 FT, MAJOR 2.8 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   5.1/ 5.6  -1.1/-0.7   0.1/ 0.6     0       NONE
 22/07 AM   6.6/ 7.1   0.4/ 0.9  -0.2/ 0.3     0       NONE
 22/07 PM   5.7/ 6.2  -0.6/-0.1   0.4/ 0.9     0       NONE
 23/08 AM   8.9/ 9.4   2.7/ 3.2   1.9/ 2.3     0      MAJOR

EAST ROCKAWAY INLET AT ATLANTIC BEACH NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 7.0 FT, MAJOR 8.0 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   4.0/ 4.5  -1.0/-0.5   0.0/ 0.5     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   5.2/ 5.7   0.2/ 0.8  -0.2/ 0.2    1-2      NONE
 22/07 PM   4.5/ 5.0  -0.5/ 0.0   0.4/ 0.9    3-4      NONE
 23/07 AM   7.7/ 8.2   2.7/ 3.2   2.1/ 2.6    6-7    MOD-MAJ

REYNOLDS CHANNEL AT POINT LOOKOUT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 5.8 FT, MODERATE 6.8 FT, MAJOR 7.8 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.1 FT, MODERATE 2.1 FT, MAJOR 3.1 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   3.9/ 4.4  -0.9/-0.4   0.2/ 0.7     1       NONE
 22/06 AM   5.1/ 5.6   0.4/ 0.9   0.0/ 0.5    1-2      NONE
 22/07 PM   4.2/ 4.7  -0.5/ 0.0   0.5/ 1.0    4-5      NONE
 23/07 AM   7.4/ 7.9   2.7/ 3.2   2.1/ 2.6   8-10    MOD-MAJ

HUDSON BAY AT FREEPORT NY
MLLW CATEGORIES - MINOR 6.0 FT, MODERATE 6.5 FT, MAJOR 7.2 FT
MHHW CATEGORIES - MINOR 1.4 FT, MODERATE 1.9 FT, MAJOR 2.6 FT

             TOTAL      TOTAL    DEPARTURE
 DAY/TIME    TIDE       TIDE     FROM NORM   WAVES    FLOOD
            FT MLLW    FT MHHW       FT       FT      IMPACT
 --------  ---------  ---------  ---------  -------  --------
 21/06 PM   4.0/ 4.5  -0.7/-0.2   1.2/ 1.7     1       NONE
 22/07 AM   4.7/ 5.2   0.2/ 0.7   1.1/ 1.6     1       NONE
 22/07 PM   4.4/ 4.9  -0.2/ 0.2   1.5/ 2.0    1-2      NONE
 23/07 AM   7.0/ 7.5   2.3/ 2.8   3.2/ 3.7    1-2     MAJOR

Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service New York NY
357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

NYZ079>081-178-179-220945-
/O.UPG.KOKX.CF.A.0002.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOKX.CF.W.0004.221223T1000Z-221224T0600Z/
Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk-Southeast Suffolk-
Southern Queens-Southern Nassau-
357 PM EST Wed Dec 21 2022

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...One to two and a half feet, locally three feet of
  inundation above ground level expected in vulnerable areas near
  the waterfront and shoreline.

* WHERE...Northeast Suffolk, Southwest Suffolk, Southeast
  Suffolk, Southern Queens and Southern Nassau Counties.

* WHEN...From 5 AM Friday to 1 AM EST Saturday.

* COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS...Widespread moderate to localized major
  flooding of vulnerable areas near the waterfront and shoreline
  is becoming likely, with 1 to 2 1/2 feet, locally 3 ft, of
  inundation above ground level in low lying, vulnerable areas.
  This would result in numerous road closures and cause widespread
  flooding of low lying property including parking lots, parks,
  lawns and homes/businesses with basements near the waterfront. A
  few buildings and homes near the waterfront could experience
  flooding. Vehicles parked in vulnerable areas near the
  waterfront will likely become flooded. Flooding could also
  extend inland from the waterfront along tidal rivers and bays.

* SHORELINE IMPACTS...Along the ocean front, 10 to 15 ft
  breakers (highest across eastern Long Island) will likely
  result in widespread beach flooding and erosion during the
  times of high tide. Areas of dune base erosion and localized
  overwashes are likely as well. Along the south shore of the
  north fork of Long Island, particularly Orient Point, 3 to 6
  ft breaking waves will result in beach erosion and erosion of
  dune structures. Wave splashover of dune structures and
  bulkheads is possible in spots, which would cause flooding of
  roadways and vulnerable structures behind protective
  structures.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The potential for locally major flooding
  on Friday morning will depend on the direction and strength of
  winds through the time of high tide. This will be refined over
  the next 24 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Take the necessary actions to protect flood-prone property. If
travel is required, do not drive around barricades or through
water of unknown depth.