bluewave

Yeah, you guys will manage to hold onto traditional winters longer than the I-95 coastal crew on this forum. Being closer to the center of the continent and away from the rapidly warming Atlantic are a real plus for you. The posters especially near the LES zones have been benefitting from the warmer lakes staying open longer. Even during the warmest winter in 23-24 for Marquette at +8.4, it was still 25.2°. While not great by local standards, the 126.5” of snow for Marquette in a place like NYC would wildly exceed anything in the modern record. This past warmest winter for Marquette was about the same temperature as the coldest on record for NYC in 1917-1918 at 25.7°. If NYC should ever run a +8 departure in this much warmer climate, than something close to a snowfall shutout could occur with potentially only a T to 1” for the whole season.

January 2022 was the last month for parts of the region that could be considered a great winter month. Monthly Total Snowfall for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.0 T 0.1 8.0 1.6 T 0.0 9.7 2019-2020 0.0 T 0.5 T T 0.0 0.0 0.5 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 T 1.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 7.3 2021-2022 0.0 T T 33.2 0.1 T 0.0 33.3 2022-2023 0.0 0.0 T T 0.3 T 0.0 0.3 2023-2024 0.0 0.0 T 5.9 1.4 T 0.0 7.3

A bunch of spots under .50 since August 20th. NY MONTAUK AIRPORT WBAN 0.19 NY WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.26 NY MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.26 NY MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 0.26 NY SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.28 NJ CRANFORD TWP 1.1 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.29 NY BELLMORE 0.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.29 NY AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.30 NY ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 0.30 NY FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.43 NY WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.43 NY SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 0.43 NJ VERONA TWP 0.8 W CoCoRaHS 0.44 CT CENTRAL WATERFORD 2.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.44 CT OLD LYME 3.4 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.44 CT DARIEN 3.6 N CoCoRaHS 0.45 NY STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 0.46 PA PHILADELPHIA 2.1 NE CoCoRaHS 0.13 NJ HAMMONTON 1.9 S CoCoRaHS 0.13 NJ EWING TWP 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 0.13 PA PHILADELPHIA 2.7 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.14 NJ WEST DEPTFORD TWP 1.9 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.14 NJ PITTSGROVE TWP 1.9 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.14 PA GREEN LANE 1.7 E CoCoRaHS 0.15 NJ DENNIS TWP 2.5 S CoCoRaHS 0.15 PA CHURCHVILLE 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.15 PA SPRINGFIELD 0.1 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.16 NJ HAMILTON TWP 4.5 NW CoCoRaHS 0.16 NJ EAST WINDSOR TWP 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 0.16 NJ TOMS RIVER TWP 3.6 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.16 NJ JACKSON TWP 4.9 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.16 DE LEWES COOP 0.17 NJ HAMMONTON 3.3 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.17 NJ MONROE TWP 0.6 WNW CoCoRaHS 0.17 NJ UNION TWP 1.2 SW CoCoRaHS 0.17 NJ METUCHEN 0.5 E CoCoRaHS 0.17 PA ARDMORE 0.5 NW CoCoRaHS 0.18 NJ EGG HARBOR CITY 3.6 SW CoCoRaHS 0.18 NJ MONROE TWP 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 0.18 NJ BEACHWOOD 0.7 S CoCoRaHS 0.18 PA PERKASIE 1.6 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.19 NJ MEDFORD LAKES 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 0.19 NJ WINSLOW TWP 5.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.19 NJ PRINCETON 1.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.19

Models coming in stronger next week with the dew point drop. Now indicating dews possibly dropping below freezing. This will really make it feel like fall but will probably increase the dry pattern further.

At least in the first 5 winters of the 2020s, the snowfall deficits from Boston down to DC are pretty equally distributed from north to south relative to their past 5 year lowest levels. The snowfall deficit is only half of the equation. As even though NYC wasn’t able to surpass their lowest 5 year runs like Boston, Philly, and DC did this last winter, the lean 5 year periods from the past were much colder. So this adds to why people are saying it hasn’t really felt much like winter during the 2020s so far except for some good periods briefly in Jan 22 and during 21-22. Let’s hope we can stage some type of snowfall comeback during the 2nd half of the decade so we can avoid going from the snowiest decade in the 2010s to least snowiest decade in the 2020s. Lowest 5 year snowfall averages at Boston, Philly, and DC with NYC in 2nd place BOS…..19-20 to 23-24….26.1”….past record 50-51 to 54-55….28.0” NYC…..19-20 to 23-24….14.2”….past record 27-28 to 31-32….11.8” PHI…….19-20 to 23-24…..9.7”….past record 48-49 to 52-53…11.8” DCA…..19-20 to 23-24…..5.5”….past record 97-98…to 01-02…7.5”

The current 9 year winter average at DET is 31.1°or +1.6° warmer than the previous peak in 1957 which was 29.5°. NYC is at 38.5° or +2.1 above the previous peak of 36.4° set back in 2002. The effects of this record warm winter run since 15-16 are more pronounced closer to the East Coast.

The way they calculate their numbers doesn’t really do justice to the magnitude of the pressure swing from August to September at the surface to 500mb.

While these much lower dew points forecast for next week won’t help our dry pattern, at least it will really feel like fall.

We were living in a much colder climate back then so the below normal snow years were the result of drier conditions and unfavorable storm tracks. These days our below normal years are the result of too much warmth and unfavorable storm tracks. Also remember that the bad seasons back then had more snowfall than our poor do seasons now. It wasn’t always that way. From the 1960s into the early 1990s especially on Long Island there was a balanced mix of below, near normal, and above normal snowfall seasons. Many seasons with mid 20s snowfall. Since the 90s it’s almost exclusively well below or well above with hardly any mid 20s seasons. As the climate continues to warm it will be harder to get the above normal seasons so the below normal seasons will become the new normal.

The patterns becoming more persistent are the result of the warming atmosphere and oceans. So observing these changes and incorporating them into forecast techniques is just pattern recognition. I take a very data driven approach so it’s more pattern persistence than persistence forecasting.

That Western Ridge has been very persistent for the La Niña years during the 2020s from summer into fall.

At least we aren’t getting the all-time October heat like out West which would equate to mid 90s here.

I would just leave out the regression to the mean part since the volatility in our snowfall since the 1990s in places like the NYC Metro has been beyond any historical mean. Islip has seen an all or nothing snowfall pattern since the 1990s with hardly any average seasons. The previous 30-40 year period was defined by mostly mean seasons with higher and lower seasons more rare. These days it’s either record high or low snowfall with very few average seasons which were much more common in the old days. The Western droughts continue to this day. But they have been moving around with the shifting stuck record 500 mb ridge positions. This has come with an acceleration of the water cycle which has lead to big swings between wet and dry against the overall drier pattern. Just noting the changes that have occurred. Since 2010 NYC Metro and other regional spots have experienced 12 out of 15 warmer to record warmer summers. So we have a 15 year period of observations for the summer new summer pattern. The same areas have experienced a record 9 consecutive warmer to record warm winters since 15-16. The remaining winters of the decade will give us more data to make a winter determination.

I get it. Sometimes you just have to laugh. But these patterns have been getting stuck in place and repeating across years and seasons in a way we haven’t seen before.

That isn’t my intention Just pointing out how anomalous the warmth out West has been. The interesting thing about this recent -PDO era in the 2020s is how much more of a ridge and warmth we are getting out West from the summer into fall than the older -PDO era. Must be related to the extreme marine heatwaves over the Pacific Basin.

Driest August 20th through October 3rd for ISP with only .30. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2024-10-03 0.30 1 2 2005-10-03 1.33 0 3 2014-10-03 1.71 0 4 2019-10-03 2.14 0 5 1968-10-03 2.29 0 6 1963-10-03 2.30 16 7 2007-10-03 2.39 0 8 1973-10-03 2.40 0 9 2013-10-03 2.59 0

The record heat out West for early fall is on the level of the September into October 2015 super El Niño and 2022 La Niña. Time Series Summary for Cheyenne Area, WY (ThreadEx) - Month of Sep Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2015 64.7 0 2 2024 64.0 0 - 2022 64.0 0 - 2019 64.0 0 3 1998 63.9 0 4 2021 63.6 0 5 2023 63.4 0 6 1963 63.1 0 7 1979 62.8 0 8 1990 62.2 0 9 2018 62.1 0 - 2005 62.1 0 10 1897 61.9 0

Still holding on at or above the 1.5C level.

It’s better that this occurring at the end of the growing season rather than closer to peak heating like we got from the 90s into early 00s with 100° heat and very little rain.

Your 9 winter average temperature since the 15-16 super El Niño is the highest on record at Detroit at 31.1°.

The fall into spring of 95-96 was the most perfectly balanced -EPO -WPO -NAO pattern we have experienced. It was still in a much colder climate back then before all the big marine heatwaves and global temperature increases. So the available Arctic air as displayed as in the record cold 93-94 pattern over North America was on par with some of the great Arctic outbreaks of the 1980s. That great Southwest Ridge near Baja was the icing on the cake for the snowiest season on Long Island to near 90”. Also notice that deep trough north of Hawaii which was effectively a near perfect +PDO atmospheric 500 signature even as it was a weak La Niña.

Unfortunately, extremes of wet and dry with very little moderation in between.

Warmer first week of October with temps near 80° in NJ into the weekend before we cool off again next week. The record breaking heat will be found out West. Fall temperature pattern for the CONUS similar to 2022 so far but a little warmer in the East.

The one constant since 15-16 is that the temperatures and Southeast or Western Atlantic Ridge have exceeded the given model seasonal forecasts. There has generally been a trough axis with varying depths near the West and an Aleutian Ridge. The finer points of how much snowfall and how warm the departure will be for a place like NYC usually has to wait until we get through October and even into December for conformation of early season clues. There seems to be a few issues at hand for a place like NYC. First the 2010 to 2019 decade was the snowiest on record. The heavy snows which began around 2010 or even to a lesser extent 2002-2003 reversed as the Pacific became increasingly hostile during the 2018-2019 winter right after the November snowstorm. There was a dramatic shift to warmer following the big global temperature jump in 15-16. So this has been the first 9 winter run of record to warmer temperatures.