bluewave

We are starting out with fog here today with showers across the area. Then we dry out tomorrow morning before more rain later in the day into the evening. So our first major 95° heat and first 90° east of NYC will have to wait. Longer range it looks like a back door pattern for next weekend with strong Canadian high pressure. Maybe the high will be strong enough to keep the stalled front and rains closer to DC and south. Would be nice to get a dry weekend with comfortable June temperatures. The strongest heat is forecast to stay to our West through mid-June.

My pointing out a particular repeating pattern over time with our storm tracks leading to less snow is more about pattern recognition on my part. I use it in real time to point out that the models have been too snowy beyond 5 days. This has lead to the famous modeled snowstorm always being a week a way. Which is due to the models underestimating the influence of the Pacific Jet longer range. Adding extra warmth to the system in multiple locations causes shifts in the storm tracks. So we need to acknowledge this as a forecast aid.

That ridge position in the means off the West Coast in January 2025 was able to build into the Rockies later in the month like you pointed out in 2022. But the Pacific Jet carving out a deeper Baja trough than we saw in 2022 was acting as a kicker. So the trough near the Northeast was a little too far east for a repeat of the late January 2022 blizzard. Too many competing marine heatwaves driving the pattern this past January to allow the pristine MJO 8 forcing pattern that we got back in 2022.

We’ll see if the pattern can dry out a bit after the 16th and maybe promote higher temperatures than we got the last few days.

The +PNA ridge worked out for us in January 2022 in that position just off the West Coast in conjunction with the solid MJO 8.

The EPO was only consistently negative in January. As the big swings in December and February lead to more neutral those months. Unfortunately, the big snowstorm in January got suppressed down to the Gulf Coast.

Rainy weekends theme continues with rainy periods possible on Saturday and Sunday. Hopefully, the Euro is too fast with the rain to return on Sunday. So we can at least get some drier conditions during the day.

The constant jet extensions led to wild fluctuations in the WPO,EPO, PNA, AO, and maybe even the NAO. This would have been a great winter before the big warming jump in 15-16. We need a significant relaxation of this jet in coming winters for at least a small rebound off the record low snowfall and cuttter regime of the last 7 years.

The -WPO blocking in the Bering Sea during February was overpowered by the very fast Pacific Jet and strong Southeast Ridge.

It could very well be a feedback process causing these big ridge expansions further north than we used to get back in the old days. These very strong ridges to the east of New England have been the norm. So the 500 mb ridges warm the waters below and the warmer waters could promote stronger 500mb ridges. Plus there could be remote teleconnections involved from marine heatwaves closer to the equator. Our first 90° Heat of the season is following a familiar theme. The mid 90s major heat missed our area to the north. So the record heat for June 5th was up in Maine and New Hampshire. This was the 2nd year in a row with record early June heat in those areas. Even closer to home, Danbury was 3° warmer than Newark in more over the top to the north fashion. So not sure what caused the comments that the temperature anomaly charts were showing too much red to our north. They turned out to be correct. Augusta Maine had a record high of 92° which was a +20. Newark at 90° was only a +12°. TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 92R 2:21 PM 88 2024 72 20 88 TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 90 428 PM 95 2021 78 12 81 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 0409 AM EDT FRI JUN 06 2025 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT AUGUSTA... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 92 DEGREES WAS SET AT AUGUSTA YESTERDAY, JUNE 5TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 88 DEGREES SET IN 2024. Data for June 5, 2025 through June 5, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NH ROCHESTER SKYHAVEN AP WBAN 96 ME FRYEBURG EASTERN SLOPES REGL AP WBAN 95 NH MANCHESTER AIRPORT WBAN 94 NH LEBANON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT WBAN 93 ME AUGUSTA STATE AIRPORT WBAN 92 Data for June 5, 2025 through June 5, 2025 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 93 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 93 NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 91 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 90 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 90 NY MONTGOMERY ORANGE COUNTY AP WBAN 90

The exact reason that the warming is manifesting in these new stuck weather patterns that have become common in recent years may not be fully understood yet. But we can still use them as an aid to our long range winter and summer seasonal forecasts. Once a season begins and the same patterns emerge as recent years, then it helps gain confidence in the model forecasts going forward. So if the models show a big over the top warm up like today, then it’s a match for our new recent climo. This becomes useful in comparing it to what the longer range medium and and seasonals are showing.

A newer climate model that was first run back in 2013 is doing a pretty good job so far. It forecast the increase in summer ridging near the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies and another area to the east of New England. This has been the main summer pattern since 2018. It gives us these over the top warm ups. It has been a reliably warmer than normal summer pattern for us. As the only slightly cooler summer here was in 2023. Every other summer finished up warmer than average. But the increased onshore flow with a ridge east of New England holds down the big increase in 100° days that some of the older climate models were indicating. We need a strong 500mb positive height anomaly closer to the Great Lakes like from 2010 to 2013 to get a high number of 100° days from around NYC to the east. This is why JFK continues with the longest under 100° day streak on record. The Euro summer forecast is very similar to the general pattern since 2018 Similar to summer pattern since 2018 Resembling new climate model forecast made in 2013

They actually make it look like things are cooling. Since the more recent climate normals are the warmest on record. Our warmer summers patttern bagan back in 2010. So when we use more recent climate normals they appear cooler than the climate normals did over 20 years ago.

Yeah, it runs on the 5th of every month and this summer update was just released a few hours ago.

Latest Euro keeps the strongest heat this summer out West with a wetter pattern for us.

Tomorrow looks like a bigger Ambrose Jet day than today.

We were still a very solid +PDO SST signature through the winter of 16-17. Just look at that big cold pool south of the Aleutians and warm crescent along the West Coast. Then in 17-18 you could see the beginning of a shift with lingering warm pool near the Baja and cold pool still north of Hawaii. Still plenty of warmth up in the Bering Sea for a weaker +PDO than 16-17. But this is when the first hint of warming began to the east of Japan. Though not to the point of being overpowering yet which began in 18-19 flipping the PDO negative and preventing the El Niño from coupling in 18-19 and 19-20.

This one long range climate model initialized in 2013 did a great job forecasting the +PDO shift in 2014 that lasted through 2018. So we always have to evaluate on a case by case basis. Plus it’s tough to know when the model is just in repeater mode or actually seeing a shift until we see the verification. https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms11718 The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

Looks like the warmest readings today will be following the over the top pattern we have been getting since around 2018. Onshore flow for the south facing beaches. The warmest downslope flow in the Northeast will be found in Mass and NH. So the warmest departures and perhaps actual temperatures will be heading to our north today.

While these climate models forecasts through NDJFM 2030 could just be repeating the 2025 initialization, the winter forecast is still in -PDO mode. It could also be related to the western ocean basins warming fastest to the east of Japan and New England with mean ridges in those positions. I am just putting this forecast out there since it was recently issued. But don’t have any info on how reliable it is or whether the next run will show some type shift later in the 2020s. There is also that cool spot south of Greenland and Iceland which could be related to the more +NAO winters we have seen continuing. https://hadleyserver.metoffice.gov.uk/wmolc/

My guess is that the duration of this current -PDO interval, which emerged around 18-19, will linger as long as the WPAC stays this warm. May had multiple areas near and west of the Dateline ranking near the warmest on record. We probably would have continued the +PDO which emerged around 13-14 right into the 2020s if it wasn’t for that rapid increase in WPAC 500mb heights which warmed the WPAC leading to the -PDO. Hopefully, the changes in the WPAC at 500mb and the surface don’t permanently load the dice for more -PDOs with only intermittent +PDOs. In the old days, the -PDO defined more by the cold pool off the West Coast. Now, the warm pool and 2nd EOF of the PDO in the WPAC are running the show. It would be nice to get monthly real time 2nd EOF updates. But the the ranking charts below can be used in place of the formal 2nd EOF numbers. 2019 to 2025 -PDO 2014 to 2018 +PDO

Yeah, NJ has done a good job of keeping the heat during the 2020s. The enhanced onshore flow has lead to quite a 90° gradient. The last 5 seasons have averaged 41 days reaching 90 west of the sea breeze front in NJ. Here along the CT Shore we have only been around 12 days. Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 1 6 19 12 2 0 41 2024 1 1 11 17 11 0 0 41 2023 0 0 2 18 5 6 0 31 2022 0 3 3 22 19 2 0 49 2021 0 3 10 14 13 1 0 41 2020 0 0 5 23 13 1 0 42 Monthly Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 for NEW HAVEN TWEED AP, CT Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0 0 2 5 4 1 0 12 2024 0 0 2 3 4 0 0 9 2023 0 0 0 4 0 4 0 8 2022 0 1 1 6 9 0 0 17 2021 0 0 4 3 5 0 0 12 2020 0 0 1 7 4 0 0 12

While the pattern is warming up from late May, it’s still staying wet. So even though the temperatures are above average, the high end potential is limited. Would need to see things really dry out for major mid 90s to around 100° as the month progresses.

Early next week looks cooler and wetter than the earlier forecasts as another cutoff low is forecast to develop over the Great Lakes. New run Old run